TFMR Podcast - Friday, September 30


The quarter ends with gold down about 0.5% while silver was up 2.5%. Not too shabby considering how quickly prices rose in the first half of 2016. Now, what will Q4 bring?

As usual, our Friday podcast prompts a review of the long-term charts. However, we begin today with an update on the all-important USDJPY:

Next, we take time to closely examine these three gold charts:

And these two silver charts:

Finally, for your weekend reading pleasure, please be sure to check these links:

Have a great weekend,



Sep 30, 2016 - 5:05pm

"Rigged market" trump 2016

"Rigged market" trump 2016

Sep 30, 2016 - 5:05pm
Sep 30, 2016 - 5:08pm


A first for me yippee

Sep 30, 2016 - 5:09pm



Sep 30, 2016 - 5:11pm

Interesting Rickards Tweet thread with Middlekoop

Jim Rickards ‏@JamesGRickards Aug 13

With the rise of #SDRs, how exactly does it replace the dollar? @wmiddelkoop has answers:

tony maryfield ‏@tmaryfield 24h24 hours ago

@JamesGRickards @wmiddelkoop Can we expect the dollar and stock market to die tomorrow?

Jim Rickards ‏@JamesGRickards 1h1 hour ago

.@tmaryfield @wmiddelkoop No. These things don't die overnight. But, we are crossing thresholds through which there is no return. End of $

Anthony Tarquinto ‏@tonytarquinto 6m6 minutes ago

@JamesGRickards @tmaryfield @wmiddelkoop so when does Congress roll out the new dollar, and how many cents are we going to get for the old?

Jim Rickards‏@JamesGRickards

.@tonytarquinto @tmaryfield @wmiddelkoop It won't be Congress, it will be IMF. It won't be dollars, it will be SDRs. My estimate is 20 cents

Dr. P. Metals
Sep 30, 2016 - 5:13pm

I'm gonna guess

You all grew up under that there common core "new maff" system?

Sep 30, 2016 - 5:22pm

Had to buy more...

With all the bad news and the low prices I just had to buy more gold & silver this week.

Keep stacking.
Sep 30, 2016 - 5:24pm

Bronze - and Comments on Yen

I have been baffled by the question, "why would anyone want to buy the Japanese Yen when Japan is so intent to devalue?" I have finally found some perspective on the question.

The attached chart shows how Japan has already debased the Yen for a long time, and perhaps now is the time that the situation normalizes. I would appreciate any comments.

The primary candlesticks are gold priced in Yen/gram, and the secondary bars are gold priced in $/oz. The thesis here is that gold is money, and the Yen has devalued too far beyond the dollar in terms of gold (or, alternatively, the price of gold in US$ has been artificially suppressed - THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO?). This doesn't take into consideration other factors, but in any event, I feel more comfortable with the inevitability of a strengthening Yen (and rising gold price in US$).

USDJPY in the 80-85 range would close the gap to feed this hungry alligator.

Now, for the listen to Papa Turd. Good weekend all.

Sep 30, 2016 - 5:33pm
Sep 30, 2016 - 5:36pm

CDS and default probability

600 bps for 1 y protection implies less than a 10% chance of default. Here's the math...

If DB defaults, your bonds are worth 0 (these are subordinated bonds, which tend to he wiped out in bankruptcy), so you lose 100 points and therefore the CDS pays 100 points. If you agreed to pay 6 points for the protection, then there is ~6% chance of default. If you assume a 10% recovery, then the CDS pays 90 points, and probability of default is 6/90=6.6%. In general, annual spread = annual default probability * (1 - recovery).

Sep 30, 2016 - 5:54pm

Buying PMs

I haven't bought anything this entire month except two rolls of Franklin halves. Then late last night I just couldn't stand it anymore and bought a 2016 1/2 oz Gold Lunar Year of the Monkey Coin from Australia and a 1/2 oz Canadian maple leaf. A man's got to do what a man's got to do ! smiley

Sep 30, 2016 - 6:10pm

Dr. P

The proper term is "maffs."

Glad to hear the Big Bottom is in ... talk about mud flaps, Janet Yellen's got 'em.

Spinal Tap Big Bottom Live Earth Video


Sep 30, 2016 - 6:17pm

Comiskey's Partner Posting new Rants

Jeff is a very bright guy with interestinf takes:

Video unavailable
Sep 30, 2016 - 6:31pm

I had to step away today

From another thread...

This whole DB dump and pump became too much to bear. This overwhelming feeling of outrage at the manipulation and deceit that is permeating our world came over me. Are we to be enslaved forever by these parasites? What is there really to stop them? They can make up whatever they want and feed it to us. What is "real" anymore? Today is one of those hopeless days. Turd, I now know what you might have felt the other day when you said all of this weighs on you 24/7 with no escape. Your determination and strength is admirable. I will now go off and turn my attention to brighter things for the weekend and try to let go of this frustration. Sorry for the downer post. Chin up everyone.

Sep 30, 2016 - 6:42pm

ot...plse share far and wide...GMO

got this in an email..

Every year at Food Democracy Now! we look forward to attending Baker Creek's Heirloom Seed Festival in Santa Rosa, California. Also known as the world’s largest Pure Food Festival, it's our favorite conference of the whole year, with an amazing gathering of some of the most dedicated family farmers, seed savers and grassroots activists on the planet and the most incredible display of heirloom seeds.

Unfortunately, this year, an unexpected visitor from the biotech industry showed up with a camera and a hidden video recorder in his pocket. When confronted by activists who he had harassed online for years, this biotech bully admitted that he was there to find out more about the genetics behind all the incredible diversity of heirloom seeds at the festival!

Incredibly, over the years this biotech bully and his colleagues have launched major attacks on GMO labeling activists like us at Food Democracy Now!, scientists like Don Huber and Eric Seralini and even nasty attacks on Vandana Shiva and Food Babe author Vani Hari.

Now, they coming to the Heirloom Seeds Festival to try to pick up desirable traits that they could then use to genetically engineer new GMO crops from and sell these newly patented seeds to companies like Monsanto, Bayer, Dow Chemical and DuPont.

But we need your help to make sure that we can save the incredibly biodiversity of natural traits that have been found in nature and bred traditionally for thousands of years by local farmers and home gardeners.

This is why Food Democracy Now! is partnering with Baker Creek Seed Company to make sure you have access to these seeds and can help spread and protect their amazing diversity in your own home garden.

Please SHARE this Important message far and wide with friends and family today!

Baker Creek Seed Expo Unfairly Targeted, Harassed and Fined

If having an attack dog for Monsanto show up with undercover recording equipment wasn't bad enough, this year for the first time in the Heirloom Seed Festival's history, a local Sonoma county health inspector showed and started harassing vendors for things allowing visitors to taste test organic apples before they bought them.

According to a report in the local paper:

"Vendors and exhibitors at a popular natural foods event contend they were harassed and unfairly targeted by Sonoma County health inspectors who cracked down this week with fees and fines, as well as permit requirements.

Organizers of the National Heirloom Exposition at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds said previous health inspectors were positive and supportive of the three-day event, which ended Thursday. But this year was different.

Organizers said the treatment by health inspectors threatens the future of the Heirloom Exposition, which draws more than 15,000 people. They said it makes it challenging for the participation of backyard farmers and hobbyists who can’t give away an apple or tomato without a permit.

“We feel we’re not really wanted,” said farming entrepreneur Jere Gettle, who co-founded the Heirloom Festival and the Petaluma Seed Bank. “It’s taken the heart out of the event.”

It's hard to know what's changed from the previous 5 years, but it's no coincidence that this year an attack dog for Monsanto showed up and people start getting harassed. With the new proposed Monsanto - Bayer merger expected to go through, we need to make sure we support vibrant, independent sources for rare heirloom seeds and we hope that you'll take advantage of this opportunity to buy some seeds for your home garden or start your seed collection right now!

It doesn't matter if you have a full acre plot dedicated to growing your own fruits and vegetables during the summer or if you just want to put a few seeds in a pot on your windowsill.

It's important now, more than ever to make sure the incredibly biodiversity created by previous generations of farmers and home gardeners is passed down to the next generation of seeds savers.

  • Use this code [FOODDEMOCRACY], which can be entered at checkout, when you buy seeds today to receive a discount and a portion of your purchases will be donated to support our work at Food Democracy Now!.

We couldn't thank Jere Gettle and his amazing crew of seed savers at Baker Creek Heirloom Seeds enough for protecting this incredible birthright of saving seeds and we wanted to make sure that if you care about seeds and biodiversity you have access to some of the most beautiful seeds and amazing heirloom fruits and vegetables on the planet.

Remember, democracy is like a muscle, either you use it or you lose it!

Thanks for participating in food democracy,

Dave, Lisa and the Food Democracy Now! team


1. “Uproar over Sonoma County’s handling of National Heirloom Exposition”, Sonoma Press Democrat, September 9, 2016

Sep 30, 2016 - 6:45pm

@A new browser in town

Thanks, gonna give it a spin this weekend.

Sep 30, 2016 - 7:02pm

A "BIG,STRONG, BEAUTIFUL BOTTOM"... exactly what I would die for...

Well put, Craig. LMAO

Sep 30, 2016 - 7:03pm

Banking Necrosis- Band Aided from view.

For a good part of the morning around 4 am EST the European markets and Forex were going crazy like they did on Brexit night. For a while It did look like everything was accelerating to a crescendo where it would be a really ugly open in the US. Intervention from start to close; although in the early stages they were loosing control. Rumors and Fake headlines are the tools left to keep the Zombie banking system walking. I believe the DB moment early in the morning was enough to prick this bubble. The banking necrosis of DB will be exposed as more volatility comes forward in the weeks to come. Keep Stacking.

Sep 30, 2016 - 7:17pm

Fresh Jackass...I think :)

Collapse of Dollar and Rise of Gold | Jim Willie

Collapse of Dollar and Rise of Gold | Jim Willie
Sep 30, 2016 - 8:12pm

GLD lost 1.19 tonnes

SLV lost 17 tonnes today.

No change yesterday to both.
Sep 30, 2016 - 8:42pm
Dyna mo hum abundance
Sep 30, 2016 - 9:01pm
AIJ tyberious
Sep 30, 2016 - 9:40pm
Sep 30, 2016 - 10:17pm


So appreciate your posting that article. I have purchased many heirloom seeds from Baker Creek Seeds. Damn those Monsatanists! If your GMO seeds are that good, why pick on a small company providing an alternative to gardeners? So Bayer is trying to buy Monsanto out...they just bought out DuPont within the past year. Hmmmmm...

James Crighton AIJ
Sep 30, 2016 - 10:57pm

Thanks AIJ

gonna try it


abundance stealthbear
Sep 30, 2016 - 11:57pm

thanks stealthbear, its' been about 4 yrs since

I went to the Heirloom Fair in Santa Rosa that Baker Seed heads up..

first time, I was so shocked at so many 'good' seed companies and nurseries..

though they are mostly small..but I try to support what I can..

have a local dairy Strauss Organic Dairy..from start to end..cost a bit more

but I am driven to supporting who they are...milk in glass containers which

I really appreicate..

a seed at a time:)

Safety Dan
Sep 30, 2016 - 11:59pm

What you need to know about

What you need to know about the Deutsche Bank crisis today

From Michael Covel, Editor, Trend Following:

Deutsche Bank is blood in the water… and the sharks smell it.

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that major hedge funds were reducing their exposure to the German banking behemoth. The smart money is headed for the exits.


Leveraged to the Hilt

What investors are finally realizing is that Deutsche Bank is insolvent, something I told my Trend Following subscribers back in July.

Deutsche has astounding leverage of 40 times. Leverage is the proportion of debts that a bank has compared with its equity/capital. That means Deutsche has 40 times more debt than equity/ capital.

Remember, Lehman Bros. was only 31 times leveraged when it imploded in 2008.

The huge concern for investors right now is whether the bank can make enough profit to start overcoming its liabilities.

But it’s trapped in a low-growth economic environment. And it’s being choked to death by the European Central Bank’s negative interest rate policy (NIRP).

Sep 30, 2016 - 11:59pm

Meet The Young Virginia Democrat That Registered 19 Dead People

Just yesterday we wrote about an FBI investigation into potential voter fraud in the critical swing state of Virginia after it was revealed that 19 dead people had recently been re-registered to vote (see "FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia"). While the Washington Post caught wind of the investigation, it was not known who was behind the operation...until now.

Meet, Andrew Spieles,

A student at James Madison University, and apparently "Lead Organizer" for HarrisonburgVOTES. According to the Daily News-Record, Spieles confessed to re-registering 19 deceased Virginians to vote in the 2016 election cycle.

While this should come as a surprise to precisely 0 people, Spieles just happens to be Democrat who, accorded to a deleted FaceBook post, apparently recently ran for Caucus Chair of the Virginia Young Democrats.

It's too bad really, sounds like Spieles had all the right "special talents" required to be very successful politician...he just forgot the most important first rule: "Don't get caught."

Comment: 1st - If the FBI looks into this a little more they'll find this is and has been Standard Operating Procedure across the country. If Hilary wins he's a shoe-in to be in her cabinet. wink 2nd - Ok he registered dead people, I want to know who was going to commit the voter fraud by actually using the dead folks names, who was going to do the voting? I want jail time for the the kid and the senior political hacks that educated him on the finer points of how too pull off voter fraud along with a highly publicized perp walk!


Safety Dan
Oct 1, 2016 - 12:06am

Three reasons why the banking

Three reasons why the banking system is rigged against you

September 30th, 2016 by Simon Black

If there were ever any doubt about how completely RIGGED the banking system is against depositors, allow me to introduce the following:

Exhibit A: Governments are working to make banks LESS safe

Yesterday an unelected bureaucrat that no one has ever heard of made a stunning announcement that has sweeping implications for anyone with a bank account.

Dombrovskis is Europe’s top financial services official, so he controls bank regulations in the European Union.

He issued a stern warning to global bank regulators yesterday that he is prepared to reject any further plans they might have to tighten bank capital requirements.

This might sound rather dry, but it’s incredibly important.

“Bank capital” is the most critical component of any bank balance sheet.

Capital is like a bank’s rainy day fund; when things start to go bad, a bank’s capital provides a margin of safety to ensure that their depositors’ funds are safe.

Strong banks have ample capital and are able to withstand crises.

Weak banks with low levels of capital collapse. And that’s precisely what happened in 2008.

Most banks across the west had very low levels of capital. They had spent years making appallingly stupid ‘no money down’ loans with 0% teaser interest rates to borrowers with pitiful credit.

When that bubble burst, the banks lost billions of dollars. And it turned out that most of the banks at the time had razor thin levels of capital.

If you’re wondering why, the answer is quite simple: the less capital a bank maintains, the more money it can invest… so poorly capitalized banks tend to make more money.

Lehman Brothers was quite profitable.

But the bank infamously had capital worth just 3% of its total assets… meaning that if Lehman’s investments fell by just 3%, they would be wiped out.

Lehman’s investments fell by a lot more than 3%… so the bank’s capital was totally insufficient to weather the storm. The bank folded, and a huge crisis erupted.

Regulators vowed to never let that happen again.

And in the years since, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the primary global bank regulator, has been pushing banks to increase their capital levels higher.

European banks in particular still have pitiful balance sheets.

Their investment portfolios are stuffed full of negative-yielding bonds issued by bankrupt European governments.

And their capital levels are still so low with many of them that there are whispers of taxpayer funded bailouts, from Italy’s Monte dei Paschi to Germany’s global titan Deutsche Bank.

But despite these pitiful bank fundamentals, Dombrovskis is rejecting the Basel Committee’s latest push to make banks safer.

According to the Financial Times, Dombrovskis is specifically complaining that the Basel proposals might lead to a “significant” increase in the amount of capital that banks would maintain.

… so in other words, the head of European financial services thinks it’s a bad idea for banks to have an extra margin of safety.

Bank profits are being prioritized over depositor safety, even at a time when so many of the banks are seeking taxpayer-funded bailouts.

In the eyes of the bureaucracy, bank profits come before depositor safety… which makes it completely obvious how rigged the system is against you.

Exhibit B: The Volker Rule farce

In another effort to make banks safer, the US government passed the Volker Rule as part of their new post-crisis financial regulation.

The Volker Rule forces banks to sell their riskiest assets, i.e. the stuff they shouldn’t have been buying to begin with, especially with their depositors’ savings.

Problem is, those risky assets aren’t worth very much, and the banks are having a hard time finding a buyer willing to pay them 100 cents on the dollar.

So rather than take the loss, banks in the US keep requesting extension after extension.

They’ve already had six years to offload their assets. Now the deadline has been extended all the way to 2022.

Yet in the meantime, the banks get to continue holding those assets on their balance sheet at 100 cents on the dollar, even though they’re clearly not worth a fraction of that.

The whole thing is a giant scam designed to conceal obvious bank losses… a neat little arrangement between the political elite and banking elite.

Exhibit C: No one from Wells Fargo is going to jail

Wells Fargo is getting a very public slap on the wrist for falsifying customer bank accounts in its efforts to meet their sales goals.

And in addition to the embarrassment they’ll probably pay a series of steep damages, most of which will go to the government and class action lawyers.

But don’t hold your breath for any senior executives to be criminally indicted.

If you or I engaged in what Wells Fargo did, we’d already be turning big rocks into little rocks wearing a DayGlo orange jumpsuit.

There’s a word for what they did. It’s called fraud. And the people at the top were either part of the scam, or they were too stupid to recognize an obvious crime.

Once again, it’s proof of a system that’s totally rigged in favor of the banking elite… literally at your expense.

Modern banking is truly bizarre.

They’ve created a system whereby we entrust our hard-earned savings to institutions that never miss an opportunity to abuse that trust.

In making a deposit at a bank, we become merely an unsecured creditor.

And in exchange for taking on that counterparty risk they provide almost zero transparency in what they’re doing with the money.

Even still, they work in partnership with their friends in government (where a very swift revolving door exists) to legally conceal their true financial condition.

Your reward for all this risk? A whopping 0.1%, if you’re lucky.

Why take the chance?

Think about withdrawing at least a portion of your savings. Gold and physical cash are great alternatives.

Safety Dan
Oct 1, 2016 - 12:07am
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Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
2/14 8:30 ET PPI
2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/28

1/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
1/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/31 8:30 ET Personal Inc, Cons. Spending and Core Inflation
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
2/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending

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