TFMR Podcast - Friday, September 9


After their obvious and deliberate attempt to manipulate the bond market these past 48 hours, I think it has become clear that The Fed does, indeed, intend to raise the Fed Funds rate when they meet in two weeks. Why they are doing this and what they hope to accomplish is what we attempt to explain in this podcast.

I've claimed all along that The Fed CANNOT raise the FF rate, if anything because they would flatten the yield curve and worsen the economy even more. This manipulative move in treasuries is quite clearly an attempt to raise long rates in order to give The Fed "room" to raise short, when taken together, there is no discernable change to the slope of the curve. The move to raise long rates also helps the BoJ and the ECB, as we explain in this podcast.

The proof is in the pudding and you can see what is happening in these three charts:

But The Fed is playing a VERY dangerous game in their attempts to manage EVERY market. They've attempted to directly and indirectly influence the stock market since February 11 of this year. We'll have to see now if their gamble pays off.

And with rising rates and a rising POSX/USDJPY, you can be assured that the metals are going to continue to feel considerable pressure. Gold might/should hang in there better than silver as it will begin to receive some "safe haven" bids. I think a tradable low is coming again soon. Silver on the other hand may soon see .50 fail in a test of .00. IF THAT HAPPENS...and it doesn't necessarily HAVE TO, it's just a possibility...the chart below shows that we might have a tradable low there, too.

Anyway, this is all VERY complex and I don't know if I did a decent job of explaining myself. If you find all of this confusing, we can always try again on Monday. In the meantime, there are those out there that have claimed that any further rate hikes will bring about financial catastrophe and derivative failure and market collapses. At this point, given what we've observed over the past 48 hours, I'm afraid we're about to find out if those people are right.

Have a nice weekend.



Safety Dan
Sep 10, 2016 - 10:45am

Outrage grows as Wells Fargo

Outrage grows as Wells Fargo executives are spared the chopping block after 5,300 employees were fired for creating millions of fake accounts

  • Staff pushed customers into taking extra products or created extra accounts without their knowledge to hit sales targets, probe found
  • Some were fined overdraft fees after money was moved without consent
  • Wells Fargo says it has fired 5,300 staff in recent years over the scandal
  • But CEO John Stumpf was paid $19.3million in 2015 and has been given several 'Banker of the Year' awards from industry organizations
  • Executive David Carroll was paid $9.05million for overseeing 'growth'
  • Consumer watchdog fined the bank a record $185million on Thursday
  • Wells Fargo has also been ordered to repay $5million to customers
  • Up to 2 million deposit accounts were created without customers knowing

Scroll down for video

A customer fraud probe cost 5,300 Wells Fargo employees their jobs - but regulators stopped short of pointing any fingers at the bank's executives

Read more:

Safety Dan
Sep 10, 2016 - 10:50am

Have You Had Your Saturday's Dose Of Gov Fear? If Not Read Here

CDC: A Lot Of Kids Are About To Develop Microcephaly

CDC: A Lot Of Kids Are About To Develop Microcephaly

Posted on September 10, 2016 by Sean Adl-Tabatabai

The head of the CDC has said that the US fight against the Zika virus has been lost and warned citizens to prepare for “a bunch of kids born with microcephaly” in the next few months.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Thomas Frieden issued the warning on Friday after the agency’s money in tackling the virus ran out.

Yahoo News reports:

Zika is spreading more widely in the U.S. and can not only cause microcephaly — in which babies are born with grave brain defects — but other problems that the country will face for decades. And 671 pregnant women in the states and Washington, D.C., have the virus, leading to the birth of 17 babies with microcephaly so far.



Sep 10, 2016 - 10:58am

30 Year Treasury Note


How far does the 30 Treasury Note have to fall for the interest rate to be set for the 25 point Fed rise on the 21st of Sept? can we get this info before Sunday night trading?


Safety Dan
Sep 10, 2016 - 10:59am

How Government Saves Us..

Gowdy: “They got it wrong. They blew it. FBI, DOJ gave immunity to the triggerman. Prosecutor 101: you don’t give immunity to the person who robbed the bank.”


Yet another example

WATCH: Shocking moment Donald Rumsfeld dodged 9/11 conspiracy questions

THIS is the shocking moment US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld dodged questions about the collapse of a third tower block after the 9/11 terror strikes during a filmed impromptu interview.

Sep 10, 2016 - 11:10am

S Dan and info

S Dan : Nailed it ! (9:28 am post)


info : "racist sexist homophobic"

So says the stupid bull-dyke cow that wants to enslave white people.

Sep 10, 2016 - 11:29am

Turd's Podcast

Must be one of his very best. It is brilliantly persusiave:

It addresses in one fell swoop the biggest problem facing banks worldwide -- the inability to make money from rock-bottom rates.

It has all the appearances of a well-planned, highly coordinated action -- sudden, synchronous and massive.

Further, it fits perfectly the characteristics of conceit and the hubris of elites who kinda really do believe they are masters of the universe.

However, if they are successful in lifting the yield curve globally, will that not weaken what Turd calls one of history's most powerful reasons currently for owning precious metals -- which is collapsing yields and negative rates? Weaken what has been such a formidable bid.

In addition, if they have the financial firepower to pull this off, why shouldn't we believe they will be able to do something far less -- contain gold and silver at their Maginot line, the post-Brexit highs --anytime and as many times as they'll need to?

On the other hand, maybe the negative consequences will end up precipitating the flight into real money.

Welcome others' thoughts. My sense is no one knows. We can only stack, watch and wait. But I did appreciate hearing Turd say he is sticking with his miners.

Whoops -- apologies, Constantine.

Sep 10, 2016 - 11:30am

50% of Trump supporters

But................what about the other 1/2???? They must be?????

Sep 10, 2016 - 12:01pm


It's not your fault if Constantine and others have a monorail mind and it's not your fault if some members hold down a position on the far left side of the bell curve.

Sep 10, 2016 - 12:11pm

Try To

Be tolerant of others less informed or less brilliant than yourselves. This podcast was a work of art, molded from the mind of a great Turd. Should it become public, it would be a shame to have the comments littered with insults. We have been politely asked to "take it outside", should we have issues with each other.

Sep 10, 2016 - 12:24pm

@Constantine & some others I can't recall

Edited: in deference to and in agreement with @Sanford (h/t)

@AE, yes, thank you, I know it is not my fault ;^)

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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