TFMR Podcast - Friday, September 9


After their obvious and deliberate attempt to manipulate the bond market these past 48 hours, I think it has become clear that The Fed does, indeed, intend to raise the Fed Funds rate when they meet in two weeks. Why they are doing this and what they hope to accomplish is what we attempt to explain in this podcast.

I've claimed all along that The Fed CANNOT raise the FF rate, if anything because they would flatten the yield curve and worsen the economy even more. This manipulative move in treasuries is quite clearly an attempt to raise long rates in order to give The Fed "room" to raise short, when taken together, there is no discernable change to the slope of the curve. The move to raise long rates also helps the BoJ and the ECB, as we explain in this podcast.

The proof is in the pudding and you can see what is happening in these three charts:

But The Fed is playing a VERY dangerous game in their attempts to manage EVERY market. They've attempted to directly and indirectly influence the stock market since February 11 of this year. We'll have to see now if their gamble pays off.

And with rising rates and a rising POSX/USDJPY, you can be assured that the metals are going to continue to feel considerable pressure. Gold might/should hang in there better than silver as it will begin to receive some "safe haven" bids. I think a tradable low is coming again soon. Silver on the other hand may soon see $18.50 fail in a test of $18.00. IF THAT HAPPENS...and it doesn't necessarily HAVE TO, it's just a possibility...the chart below shows that we might have a tradable low there, too.

Anyway, this is all VERY complex and I don't know if I did a decent job of explaining myself. If you find all of this confusing, we can always try again on Monday. In the meantime, there are those out there that have claimed that any further rate hikes will bring about financial catastrophe and derivative failure and market collapses. At this point, given what we've observed over the past 48 hours, I'm afraid we're about to find out if those people are right.

Have a nice weekend.



Sep 9, 2016 - 4:19pm


Sep 9, 2016 - 4:35pm

Screw It

I don't want 4th but I'll Keep Stacking

Doesn't feel as if anyone else does either. Lol

Well I was going to sell some physical to raise some cash, I guess you've talked me into it now. Lol

Sep 9, 2016 - 4:36pm

4th accepted

Thanks Marchas. I'll do my best.


Sep 9, 2016 - 4:39pm

Just for the hell of it ... bitcoin

The last week in BTC during this messy period $569 to $621 (+ 9%).

Sep 9, 2016 - 4:51pm

Silver is #1

In my mind

Keep stacking!

But, yes, I am gambling too...

Look at that silver cup and handle over the past month... I can feel the energy being pent up.

oldbones youngmind
Sep 9, 2016 - 5:09pm


I hope you are wrong, but your logic makes perfect sense. On the other hand, we may have a great buying opportunity ahead.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:17pm


Normally, I don't find gratuitous swearing funny, but Brancramps, that one got me guffawing!

And I am glad I trusted my gut about silver the past few days, tempted to go long, liking the chart set up, mostly, but cautious, waiting for Turd's call of a 19.70 low to be confirmed by a nice rise back to 20 before jumping in. Glad I waited. Best trading decision I made all year. I am not a good trader and if you follow my advice you will achieve my returns... not good.

I have been reading Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink. Had some interesting things to say about the mind of a trader.

Once, out of curiosity, Van Riper and Klein and a group of about a dozen Marine Corp generals flew to the Mercantile Exchange in New York to visit the trading floor. Van Riper thought to himself, I’ve never seen this sort of pandemonium except in a military command post in war; we can learn something from this. After the bell rang at the end of the day, the generals went onto the floor and played trading games. Then they took a group of traders from Wall Street across New York Harbor to the military base on Governor‘s Island and played war games on computers. The traders did brilliantly. The war games required them to make decisive, rapid-fire decisions under conditions of high pressure and with limited information, which is, of course, what they did all day at work. Van Riper then took the traders down to Quantico, put them in tanks, and took them on a live fire exercise. To Van Riper, it seemed clearer and clearer that these overweight, unkempt, long-haired guys and the Marine Corps brass were fundamentally engaged in the same business; the only difference being that one group bet on money and the other bet on lives. I remember the first time the traders met the generals, Gary Klein says. It was at the cocktail party, and I saw something that really startled me. You had all these marines, these two- and three-star generals, and you know what a Marine Corps general is like. Some of them had never been to New York. Then there were all these traders, these brash, young New Yorkers in their twenties and thirties, and I looked at the room and there were groups of two and three, and there was not a single group that did not include members of both sides. They weren’t just being polite. They were animatedly talking to each other. They were comparing notes and connecting. I said to myself, These guys are soul mates. They were treating each other with total respect.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:17pm

top ten?

Crazy Eight, again.

And yes, this surely has been a crazy day!

(My apologies to anyone named "Shirley" in advance . . .)

Joseph Warren
Sep 9, 2016 - 5:19pm

No rate hike

but plenty of jaw boning. (a.k.a. lying). Same ole, same ole. IMO they aren't going to take this puppy down & create any bad vibe before the U.S. presidential election. It's going down some day, just not in September.

We'll see.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:21pm


within wheels within wheels.... That's how they like us: confused! I am certain that this manipulation has many parts and contingencies. Heads they win. Tails we lose. Until we don't !!!!! Stack on, brothers.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:24pm



Sep 9, 2016 - 5:26pm

Ninth on the Ninth of the Ninth.

Had to pull my own version of a Marchas! Happy Birthday to me!

Thanks Turd for your continued thoughtful analysis - even if I don't like the message :(

The beatings will continue until morale improves I guess.

Gold will win. It just will take some time.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:44pm


Looking for it to break $688

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:55pm

Out on your ski's .. A must Listen Podcast !!

Craig, what you pieced together and presented in this podcast is very concerning. I hope that you will share this information with other media interviews. Well presented and I could not agree with you more. I think you nailed this one. Thank you for your analysis.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:59pm

"Turd well out over his skis"

Love that metaphor you used about your prognostications & predictions...

Sep 9, 2016 - 6:03pm

AAAnd Turd this podcast is one of the reasons

We pay you the big bucks!!

Little by little I'm picking up understanding. I'm not to the point to where I could pick out the charts and lay it out for someone else. (long way away from that.) But I'm starting to get ah-has.

To throw wrenches into the next quarter is the SDR, the Real Estate market and all hazards included, and the oddest Presidential Election I've ever seen. I'm sure there's plenty of interesting things that others can think of.

The Neo-Keynesian, Keynesian experiment touches so many things in our world that I would feel it highly remiss to restrict this site to 'just the metals."

Sep 9, 2016 - 6:22pm


Turd, why would the stock markets fall? They've been printing all along to keep it propped up. They'll just keep printing and printing and printing and then... they'll just print some more. The grand illusion will just keep getting grander. It's like the formaldehyde is leaking out from the corpse and they just keep pumping it back in.

ChaCha Mars
Sep 9, 2016 - 6:40pm

@Craig .... good job!

Started listening to the new Jim Willie at somebody calling himself "Fearless Eye" -- if he's fearless why is he afraid to state his real* name? -- and two minutes in my smell-o-meter went off. Fortunately, was able to hightail it back here and listen to our friend Craig, who makes even anonymous Dave (photo? last name? locale?) at X22 look good. This is not damning with faint praise: Not only does Mr. Hemke have something worthwhile to say, he also demonstrates a nice command of the language delivered clearly that others starting out might think about trying to emulate. Will get back to JW eventually but will pace myself & listen in short segments.

* You're right, "ChaCha" is not my real name; my eponymous website did serious stuff for over a decade and I needed a break.

Sep 9, 2016 - 7:02pm
Sep 9, 2016 - 7:03pm

Maybe a "too obvious" reason for rate hike in September...

is because Rickards has given us a date for TEOTWAWKI as 9/30/2016. This, because China's currency becomes part of the SDR as of October 1, 2016.

Seems to make sense--Occam's razor. It is true about the new SDR makeup--that is cast in stone. We know the economy sucks, so it's not because we're strong suddenly.

The yield curve issue might be tangential, but not THE reason.

I think they see that the dollar will come under attack as the world realizes what's happening, and Wilie's Scheiss dollar becomes a reality. The Fed will try to protect the dollar internationally by raising rates, as one last kick of the can...just MHO.

Sep 9, 2016 - 7:06pm

Interesting recap today: "They're controlling this, ...

"They're controlling that, yada, yada, yen, Kurada."

Sure, "they" are trying the same old manipulative games. But what if "they" are losing control? Being tossed about as the storm hits. Isn't that the theme here?... "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us."... The manipulation only working around the edges now. Bonds & stuk mkt have been levitating for weeks. Icahn, Tepper, et. al have warned repeatedly. And now some, & then even more, players are heading for the exits. DB higher today in a serious down mkt. Interesting anomaly...So what? "They" could be buying hand over fist, both sides of the pond.

Long DEC gold and short the S&P futures. Expecting both, not just one, to go my way very soon.

Sep 9, 2016 - 7:09pm


Craig, it all makes sense! You pulled it all together, especially for us (me) non-financial types!

Thanks and have a great weekend.

Sep 9, 2016 - 7:26pm
Sep 9, 2016 - 7:28pm

Rande Howell 4 U Traders

Paul Eberhart is ready and can wait out anything...

Regardless, get control of your emotions if you are holding positions through all of this...

Rande Howell (no affiliation or kickbacks) has some simple 1 hr youtube videos on "trader's state of mind"...

Looks like we are gonna need it...

Paul hates cliches but: Keep your powder dry!

Sep 9, 2016 - 7:29pm

Awesome Podcast!

Turd, Awesome insightful podcast! As we discussed over the phone.... I think you hit the nail on the head about the criminal manipulation today! I also believe that there were some other "actors" in on the act today. Take a look at the timing of this vote and subsequent article.... The Fed started the manipulation then I believe Saudi Arabia decided to up the ante and for all we know Russia and China might have thrown a couple of Treasuries on the table as well. If The Fed thinks they can thread the needle on this they are wrong.... they are in reality playing Russian Roulette with a gun that has NO empty chambers! Dave

Sep 9, 2016 - 7:35pm


I told myself, if and when they fiddle faddle with rate hikes, this could be the trigger to short the stock market ? Short of a rate hike the stock market would be kept artificially inflated and resume it's upward trend. Just an assumption from my monkey brain. But, could this be the defining moment in the months ahead and present a tremendous opportunity if correct ?

Sep 9, 2016 - 8:10pm

If they were jawboning rate hike a month ago...

...under deteriorating economy....I would say it's a bluff. But all of them do that in unison just days before the vote. Are they nuts?....Put it this way, Every Fed member calls for a rate hike now, and just ten days later votes "NO". That would be insane or totally arrogant on them.

Sep 9, 2016 - 8:11pm

Right on the Money Craig!

I think your right on the money with your analysis my friend. I back your thoughts 110%

Very much appreciate your valuable insight.


Dr. P. Metals
Sep 9, 2016 - 8:13pm

FED is trapped

along with the other Banksters. Took a while, but I think we're finally there. I don't think it matters what they do, that's what trapped means. It's all coming down...and it looks to be soon.

litterbox canary
Sep 9, 2016 - 8:17pm

I think they will

I was just contemplating this a few weeks ago with rate hikes. A friend of mine has been shorting the stock market for years and has lost his ass. Thinking it was gonna crash any day, day after day and year over year. Thank god I didn't take his advice. But now, IF they decide to do this rate hike, which I think they will, maybe then and only then may I heed his advice and short this groteuse market. This insane move as you know would explode the derivatives and send the banks spiralling into a death hole bail-in belly flop... Cheers


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