TFMR Podcast - Friday, September 9


After their obvious and deliberate attempt to manipulate the bond market these past 48 hours, I think it has become clear that The Fed does, indeed, intend to raise the Fed Funds rate when they meet in two weeks. Why they are doing this and what they hope to accomplish is what we attempt to explain in this podcast.

I've claimed all along that The Fed CANNOT raise the FF rate, if anything because they would flatten the yield curve and worsen the economy even more. This manipulative move in treasuries is quite clearly an attempt to raise long rates in order to give The Fed "room" to raise short, when taken together, there is no discernable change to the slope of the curve. The move to raise long rates also helps the BoJ and the ECB, as we explain in this podcast.

The proof is in the pudding and you can see what is happening in these three charts:

But The Fed is playing a VERY dangerous game in their attempts to manage EVERY market. They've attempted to directly and indirectly influence the stock market since February 11 of this year. We'll have to see now if their gamble pays off.

And with rising rates and a rising POSX/USDJPY, you can be assured that the metals are going to continue to feel considerable pressure. Gold might/should hang in there better than silver as it will begin to receive some "safe haven" bids. I think a tradable low is coming again soon. Silver on the other hand may soon see .50 fail in a test of .00. IF THAT HAPPENS...and it doesn't necessarily HAVE TO, it's just a possibility...the chart below shows that we might have a tradable low there, too.

Anyway, this is all VERY complex and I don't know if I did a decent job of explaining myself. If you find all of this confusing, we can always try again on Monday. In the meantime, there are those out there that have claimed that any further rate hikes will bring about financial catastrophe and derivative failure and market collapses. At this point, given what we've observed over the past 48 hours, I'm afraid we're about to find out if those people are right.

Have a nice weekend.



Sep 9, 2016 - 4:19pm


Sep 9, 2016 - 4:35pm

Screw It

I don't want 4th but I'll Keep Stacking

Doesn't feel as if anyone else does either. Lol

Well I was going to sell some physical to raise some cash, I guess you've talked me into it now. Lol

Sep 9, 2016 - 4:36pm

4th accepted

Thanks Marchas. I'll do my best.


Sep 9, 2016 - 4:39pm

Just for the hell of it ... bitcoin

The last week in BTC during this messy period $569 to $621 (+ 9%).

Sep 9, 2016 - 4:51pm

Silver is #1

In my mind

Keep stacking!

But, yes, I am gambling too...

Look at that silver cup and handle over the past month... I can feel the energy being pent up.

oldbones youngmind
Sep 9, 2016 - 5:09pm


I hope you are wrong, but your logic makes perfect sense. On the other hand, we may have a great buying opportunity ahead.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:17pm


Normally, I don't find gratuitous swearing funny, but Brancramps, that one got me guffawing!

And I am glad I trusted my gut about silver the past few days, tempted to go long, liking the chart set up, mostly, but cautious, waiting for Turd's call of a 19.70 low to be confirmed by a nice rise back to 20 before jumping in. Glad I waited. Best trading decision I made all year. I am not a good trader and if you follow my advice you will achieve my returns... not good.

I have been reading Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink. Had some interesting things to say about the mind of a trader.

Once, out of curiosity, Van Riper and Klein and a group of about a dozen Marine Corp generals flew to the Mercantile Exchange in New York to visit the trading floor. Van Riper thought to himself, I’ve never seen this sort of pandemonium except in a military command post in war; we can learn something from this. After the bell rang at the end of the day, the generals went onto the floor and played trading games. Then they took a group of traders from Wall Street across New York Harbor to the military base on Governor‘s Island and played war games on computers. The traders did brilliantly. The war games required them to make decisive, rapid-fire decisions under conditions of high pressure and with limited information, which is, of course, what they did all day at work. Van Riper then took the traders down to Quantico, put them in tanks, and took them on a live fire exercise. To Van Riper, it seemed clearer and clearer that these overweight, unkempt, long-haired guys and the Marine Corps brass were fundamentally engaged in the same business; the only difference being that one group bet on money and the other bet on lives. I remember the first time the traders met the generals, Gary Klein says. It was at the cocktail party, and I saw something that really startled me. You had all these marines, these two- and three-star generals, and you know what a Marine Corps general is like. Some of them had never been to New York. Then there were all these traders, these brash, young New Yorkers in their twenties and thirties, and I looked at the room and there were groups of two and three, and there was not a single group that did not include members of both sides. They weren’t just being polite. They were animatedly talking to each other. They were comparing notes and connecting. I said to myself, These guys are soul mates. They were treating each other with total respect.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:17pm

top ten?

Crazy Eight, again.

And yes, this surely has been a crazy day!

(My apologies to anyone named "Shirley" in advance . . .)

Joseph Warren
Sep 9, 2016 - 5:19pm

No rate hike

but plenty of jaw boning. (a.k.a. lying). Same ole, same ole. IMO they aren't going to take this puppy down & create any bad vibe before the U.S. presidential election. It's going down some day, just not in September.

We'll see.

Sep 9, 2016 - 5:21pm


within wheels within wheels.... That's how they like us: confused! I am certain that this manipulation has many parts and contingencies. Heads they win. Tails we lose. Until we don't !!!!! Stack on, brothers.

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7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
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7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
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7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
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7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

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6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
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6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

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