TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, June 22


It's not every day that I beg/implore you to listen to the podcast and call it a "must listen". But these are no ordinary days and this is no ordinary podcast.

So, for today, just a very important discussion about the paper metal "markets" and the looming Brexit vote. Then we get into the charts. First, these two of the USDJPY:

And this of the POSX:

We throw in a little DrC:

And we conclude with gold, silver and the HUI:

Lastly, here again is the sign-up link for A2A tomorrow with Greg Mannarino:

Be ready for a wild and wacky Wednesday!



Jun 22, 2016 - 8:09pm

Poll closing time

The polls close and counting begins at 10:00 pm London time tomorrow. That's 5:00 pm in New York. So, ALL of tonight's and tomorrow's trading will be Cartel shenanigans attempting to scare out as many Spec longs as possible. 

The REAL FUN begins on tomorrow night's Globex.

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:11pm

I'm Waiting

Come On FOURTH. Keep Stacking

Darn I waited 3 minutes. Boy it's hard to get 4th if you try.

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:12pm

Go Brexit

com on do it !!!

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:21pm

No Brexit

No Brexit, people in general are weak. The fix is in, Soros wins. Will be exciting next 2 days, oppurtunity to make exists. Dipprd my toe in and bought an opening position and got some FXB puts, ready for some volatility. Yee haw.

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:37pm

Fifth? Pleading . . . Pleading . . .

Ah, solid fourth. I'll take it . . .

Sorry, Marchas!

Don't know how to feel about Brexit. If they vote "exit", all Hell may break loose (WWiii?).

Maybe letting TPTB have their way (again) makes for a smoother "hard landing" somewhere down the road -- like September!

Having retired to the kitchen, I poured myself a Thelonius Monk Belgian Style Abbey Ale and am ready to digest the latest missive from the Turdmeister, with the appropriate cold one in hand . . .

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:38pm

This brexit vote is a total distraction to me....

Though a tool in the hands of the gold manipulators.

I'm more interested in Durable Goods Orders, PMI manufacturing Index, Consumer Sentiment, Leading Indicators, New Home Sales,...

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:38pm

Maybe a fast day tomorrow

I will have my popcorn machine running...

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:45pm

Brexit / ssssssssssssssssssssss

All noise............

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:45pm

seven slash eight?

Looking forward to Greg tomorrow.

Jun 22, 2016 - 8:46pm



Jun 22, 2016 - 8:52pm

Tell us what you really think, TF

Classic. Turd. Ferguson. Thank you. yes

Royal Flush
Jun 22, 2016 - 8:55pm
Jun 22, 2016 - 9:03pm

can someone post a brief

can someone post a brief summary? I'm in a hotel room with sleeping kids and no head phones. THanks in advance if someone is willing

Jun 22, 2016 - 9:07pm

Double bluff

I can`t help but think upon reflection, and after having listened to the J Batchelor show & JW over the years, that the British Governments wish to remain in the EU might be BS, that the vote will be to leave and that this will lead to the quite rapid destruction of the EU, freeing up GB & Germany to forge greater trade ties to Russia, thus distancing themselves from the US and NATO and hopefully averting the coming war, or at least showing that it is a US led war without popular support among its traditional allies. The future being seen as trade based and not war based as in the past. Who knows, certainly not me, but I thought I`d share my thoughts.

Jun 22, 2016 - 9:10pm

I hope you are right, sounds

I hope you are right, sounds much better than more war

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:08pm

I appreciate everyone's courtesy in not calling me out on

channeling Jim Sinclair last week that gold with a 12 handle would never be seen again.

Obviously, Jim was

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:13pm

One more thing

Is it possible that the renewed US desire to kick off military operations in Syria and have Assad removed one way or another could be connected to an increasing desire in Europe to distance itself from US militarism. If the US was successful in having Assad removed and subsequently putting a puppet in his place, the Russian gas pipelines supplying Europe could be shut down and the Oman pipelines opened, thus putting the US in control of a large part of Europes energy supplies, Europe might then look back with fondness to their old supplier, the ever dependable Russia, ain`t that a thought ! The next time Germany or France or whoever disagrees with sanctions on Russia or about that, no natural gas for you !

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:17pm
Jun 22, 2016 - 10:17pm

Chart of the Day

“There’s more upside risk for gold than there is downside,” Josh Crumb, the chief strategy officer who helps oversee $1.7 billion at Toronto-based GoldMoney, said in an interview in New York. “For gold to fall, they would have to raise interest rates more than the market expects, and I think that’s a very unlikely scenario.”

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:24pm
Jun 22, 2016 - 10:28pm


Referendum day – timetable

 Polls will be open from 8am-11pm CEST (7am to 10pm BST) on Thursday, 23 June.
 It is illegal to publish any opinion/exit polls during the day as long as polls are open for people
to vote. Exit polls are allowed to be published as soon as the polling stations are closed.
 YouGov and Sky News have announced that they will publish ‘on the day’ polls at
11pm CEST. These polls turned out quite accurate for the Scottish independence vote, and
depending on the outcome (i.e. polls showing a clear majority to one of the sides) this could
trigger a significant market reaction.
 Moreover, Britain’s hedge fund industry is commissioning private exit polls to get an early
warning of the result. Electoral Commission rules allow exit polls on the day of a referendum
so long as they are not published until polls close at 11pm CEST.
 When polls are closed, local results will be declared as the counts are completed. The bulk
of the results should be in somewhere between 3am-5am CEST (2am-4am BST) on Friday
morning, depending on how quickly the votes are counted and how close the results are
 The BBC estimates that it should be possible to make a projection of the result some time
around 5am CEST on Friday, 24 June
 The Electoral Commission, which is in charge of overseeing the referendum, estimates the
final result will be announced at ‘breakfast time’ on Friday, 24 June.

Mr. Fix
Jun 22, 2016 - 10:42pm

Why votes don't matter: This is totally rigged

Why The Just Released YouGov Poll May Have Sealed The Outcome Of The UK Referendum

Moments ago, when the latest YouGov poll came out and showed a modest lead of 51% to 49% for Remain (up from 44% for Leave and 42% for Remain as of June 19), it may have effectively sealed the fact of the Brexit referendum. Here is the reason why.

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:46pm

brief podcast summary for whoever asked earlier.... (unedited)

brief podcast summary
skillydoowaaahhh music
Turd at mrs F's people
LT 1 and 2 rode jet skis and went to wrigley field
9 hours of car riding and now Turd settles in for a talk
lots of craziness about how these markets operate, this is the same stuff we've seen before. since 2010 even. old playbook stuff
it's all contrived and fear mongering to manipulate, and then it's proven to be bs. price goes right back.
now this same stuff surrounds brexit. this is a rally from june 3rd, driven by blsbs, and now a little based on brexit. 
if they vote to stay the euro will rally
they're fear mongering
the banks are losing. if they were going to collapse price they would have done it earlier, but they couldn't. they are playing defense. either way gold is going higher. and if they stay then nothing happens
any selloff will be short lived, gold is going up regardless. i know i'm right
CoT week and gold went down 16 while open interest was up 26,000
silver down 12 cents OI up 6500
turd sips water ::::sssiiiiipppp::::
to the charts - - -
HFT Algos and specs will move paper price, not based on brexit. based on dollar yen nirp etc.. see dollar/yen chart
doesn't look bottomed, paper gold is not going down. gold is not going down to 1150
posx failed to get thru 100, see trend arrow from when japs announced nirp, jan 29 to march 10, what a trendline (lower)
if brexit the posx is goiing down 
if bremain the posx is goiing down too
copper says usd is going down also, it has rallied, maybe challenge the 200dma at 2.17
lastly... gold silver and hui
see the channels on the charts, they work. see the 50 dma. they will try and break it down thru there,
silver- idea is to break down thru the 50 dma at 16.58. any dip toward 17 is time to stack or trade.
hui- if it was going to collapse it already would have. gold has been sideways so it's not down. hui not going down
if they were going to smash things they would have done it. the algos drive the paper price, and the posx, and the dollar yen, and interest rates drive the paper metals price
no jobs mean no higher rates mean no paper metals smash
tomorrow is business as usual, post in morning, a2a with greg is at a later time, 
tf listened to bachelor/coen, it's 39 minutes of must listen audo
use your brains tomorrow, take emotion out of it, nothing has changed.

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:53pm

Lie detector....please

(From ZH) Here is what Yellen told Congress when asked if the Fed is boosting the stock market:

"We do not target the level of stock prices. This is not an appropriate thing for us to do".

Blythe Masters would likely add ...."It would be immoral as well".

Royal Flush
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:00pm


Bird - that was really some dry humor! Hat tip! smiley

Jun 22, 2016 - 11:06pm
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:12pm

Bird can be as dry as an alum mine

or a desiccant (do not eat) factory. smiley

Jun 22, 2016 - 11:19pm

Danny B

the big shakedown from the non-producers

Every time that the bankers printed more money, our wages / effective purchasing power declined. Since the bankers were "first spender", this didn't matter much to them. As our wages and the economy started downhill, the income of the bankers was reduced. In an effort to keep their income steady, they invented lots of new instruments (derivatives) to keep the fees flowing. The sequentially extended our credit terms to keep us buying stuff. Big companies like GE and GM took their cash and put it to work as investments. GOV helped them out with big injections of cash. Everybody in finance started selling tons of financial instruments to each other.

Much of this paper was junk rated but, the ratings companies were allowed to use their very high ratings as an overlay on the financial junk that they were peddling. The big banks knew it was junk and bet against their clients who bought it. The bubble popped in '08 and the banks dumped their garbage in D.C.
"They" continue to print lots more money and "We" continue to lose purchasing power. The credit system needs at least 2% growth to stay alive. This continual growth drives down our wages. "They" print more money to save the upper loop of the economy while killing the lower loop. Still, the bankers can't get the inflation that they need. They desperately need to grow the credit bubble. They have fired up sub-prime RE loans again. They don't care about the default rate.

"Cumulative default rates on subprime mortgages spiked to 25% in 2007," "Now, the machinery is even crazier, subprime mortgages are even bigger, and mortgage-backed securities, chock-full with subprime, are hotter than ever. Only this time, the taxpayer is on the hook.
NY Fed Warns about Booming Subprime Mortgages, now Insured by the Government | Wolf Street
The same people who brought us Sub-prime one are in the process of bring us sub-prime two; The New Subprime Meltdown

As the bankers printed even more money, they hollowed out the middle class. When the bottom of the food chain collapses, the top soon follows. The ongoing fascist takeover of trade agreements is an effort to squeeze us for missing profits. The same is true for GOV. They want total control to squeeze out every dime. The French police will stop you on the train if it looks like your jewellery looks to be on the heavy side. They will weigh it. U.S. GOV took more in asset seizures that burglars took in loot.
They will go to extreme efforts to shake you down but, it's all perfectly leagal.

Jun 22, 2016 - 11:20pm
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:24pm
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The TFMR Silver Round
Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

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