TFMR Podcast - Saturday, March 26

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This is a public podcast. If you can spare the time this holiday weekend, I urge you to give it a listen.

The topic is the CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders reports and the criminally fraudulent nature of the Comex paper derivative precious metals markets.

Here is a link to the latest CoT report:

We begin to put all of this into the proper perspective by discussing this chart (click to enlarge):

Next we discuss these three charts:

Finally, we tie all of this together with a look at the weekly and daily charts of gold:

Along with the weekly and daily charts of silver:

I hope you have a relaxing, peaceful and reflective holiday weekend. See you Monday.



Sanford's picture

Another Furst?


greensilver's picture


Happy Easter and thanks for thus wonderful site

TF Metals fan's picture

Happy easter

Enjoy and let us get back into the game next week! Third spot is a good start for a new week.

twippers's picture

so awesome

easter bunny turd came early and gave us a surprise easter present. how great is that!!!

happy easter big turd.

J Siefert's picture


a Saturday podcast? That's a new one.

Markedtofuture's picture



LostMind's picture

Top 10

Happy Easter everyone. 

heathbr's picture

Happy Easter

Weekend Podcast!

marchas45's picture

Darn Turd

You fooled me again. Keep Stacking

stewie's picture


Thanks turd. COT analysis always money well spent here in my opinion. Here is another view of COT




stewie's picture


Silver similarity pattern. COT supports this move along with similar pattern structure. 

SamSchlepps's picture

Manipulation - this upcoming one - Kirby

What if somebody (like happened in the past - was it A. McGuire?) foretold of this likely upcoming manipulation - would that be the revelation that Kirby is speaking of. The banks have been painted into a very visible corner and will have try to paint themselves out. If it all follows the TF ups and downs and the banks haven't laid off the requirement to deliver somewhere - then busted? I still stick by my thought that the Chinese have had/made to have clean hands in all they do - so the SGE launch can't necessarily be the trigger, just the confirmation. Just guessing , cause I misplaced the memo they copied me on - where is it - oh darn.

AIJ's picture

Valuable Information from Mr. Gold i.e. Santa

"Dear CIGAs,

  1. Gold is going to a price that will surpass even what Bill and I see on the upside.
  2. The price discovery mechanism is trending towards physical.
  3. The Comex is ancient history and does not know it.
  4. What is a contract written in paper worth if they do not function?
  5. The super-rich need their own protection and know it. You do not get that kind of money being stupid.
  6. The right time to own gold is any time and in retrospect that will be proven correct.
  7. Cash is for transactions only.
  8. Gold is for wealth protection.
  9. Don’t let the trillionaires run you out of your position in order to increase theirs."

Basil's picture

Wash&Rinse query

Many thanks for your heartfelt podcast.

I have a question regarding the "wash&rinse" cycle :  

The permanent losers in this sorry cycle are the specs, and these guys are often portrayed on this board as being hopelessly gullible, falling for the same old routine time and time again, like lambs to the slaughter.  However, if we consider who these guys actually are, something doesn't quite add up here.

The specs, or at least the largest players amongst the specs are hedge funds. Now hedge fund traders are definitely NOT  simpletons - in fact I would suggest the exact opposite.  These traders are hand picked for the job and are highly skilled at what they do.  They also have first class resources in terms of  state-of-the-art technology.  They tend to get very well paid, and are certainly not hired to get continually fleeced by "commercials" or by anyone else for that matter.

So it really does beggar belief that these spec traders would simply lose out time after time in the same matter each time.   Really ?  Any thoughts ?  Surely it's more likely that they are actually called "Hedge" funds for a reason and that their long  positions on Comex are hedged against  some form of short position  elsewhere  - perhaps synthetic  OTC derivatives  ??

Also, the "wash&Rinse" cycle clearly didn't work out for the entire 6 year period  from 2005 to 2011 during which the Gold price rose all the way from $400 to $1900  ??

Fred Hayek's picture


Craig, I think you're selling these bouillon banks short, to borrow a phrase.  You're focusing on their corruption and fraudulence.  And, sure, that's all true but think of their accomplishments.  You mentioned their alchemy of turning nothing at all, just ill intent and their office electrical supply through their servers into paper gold that gets treated by the system as real gold.  Voila!

That got me thinking because one of the greatest scientists of all time, Isaac Newton, conducted experiments to try to successfully achieve alchemy.  But he couldn't manage it.  And it turns out that this isn't the only instance of the bouillon banks beating out Isaac Newton

1) Newton's first law says that an object in motion will tend to stay in motion unless acted upon by an external force.  But this isn't true at the Comex.  As we've seen from screen captures, objects in motion at the comex can be stopped by the perception of an external force through spoofing without there actually being an external force. 

2) Newton wrote that force equals mass times acceleration. F=MA.  But this isn't true at the Comex and globex.  The bouillon banks can endlessly add force to their efforts to slow market momentum without adding any more mass of actual gold to back it up.  Furthermore, they can get even more market changing force out of fewer contracts in lightly traded times.  

3) Newton wrote that for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction.  But this isn't true at the Comex or in the gold market in general.  Events occur which should give massive pushes upward to the price of gold.  The swiss franc is no longer a safe haven currency as it is pegged to the euro, another QE is announced.  The analogy is often to billiard balls.  The player shoots the cue ball toward another ball.  The cue ball applies force to the north.  The ball it hits reacts with a force to the south that propels it to the north.  At the gold market pool table,  the cue stick of the swiss franc or another QE smacks the cue ball sending it rocketing across the table toward the 14 ball of the gold price which it hits to no effect whatsoever.  In fact, the 14 ball goes shooting straight back at the player without hitting any other intervening balls or banks. 

But we shouldn't feel too bad for Isaac.  He's not the only one the bouillon banks have beaten.

Take Ayn Rand, the author of Atlas Shrugged.  She tried her hand at some philosophical writings.  She tried to determine a principle, a bedrock on which to rest all of her ideas.  She came up with "A is A".  The law of identity.  An object cannot both be and not be in the same respect at the same time.  But the Bouillon Banks and the central banks have her beaten, too.   As Ronan Manly, of Bullionstar, and others have shown central bank gold has been both leased out and left their vaults to be sold into the markets by the bouillon banks and is on their books as still right there.  This gold is both there and not there at the same time.  Ha!  Take that, Ayn baby.

Fred Hayek's picture

@basil -- part of the answer may be wash trades

About 4 years back, Bill Murphy thought that the Comex system and the gold market were about to be busted wide open.  Craig covered this issue here, too.  There were two whistle blowers who had inside knowledge of JP Morgan controlling off shore accounts with which it traded back and forth creating a simulation of a market where one actually didn't exist because these weren't real trades.  They were wash trades where an entity is, effectively, trading with itself.  The whistle blowers brought this information to the CFTC which promptly did nothing.   

A sophisticated, independent party isn't likely to keep making the same mistake.  But your left hand is quite able to keep losing to your right hand.

marchas45's picture

To Heck With It Craig

I Just Bought These This Evening. Keep Stacking

cyclemadman's picture

I Agree With The Jackass

I think this will end when when China decides to end it.

There will come a point when the amount of gold that can be taken from the west will diminish and it won't be worth it to China to keep the charade going.

They will then simply collapse the dollar by dumping the rest of their treasuries and take over with the yuan as an alternative.

vonburpenstein's picture

well, the good thing is...

....It would appear that after this next downturn is over, we'll probably have a bunch to get excited about for a while...we shall see...

tyberious's picture

Very Logical

Warning: The US Economy Is Projected To Crash In The Next 2-3 Months: Jeff Nielson

tyberious's picture

Rafael Edward Cruz aka Ted Cruz

Member Update 3/25/16 Farewell Cruz

tyberious's picture


The US Just Admitted that 14 Airmen in Charge of 150 Nuclear Missiles — Are Cocaine and Molly Addicts

By Andrew Emett, March 20 2016

Tasked with guarding 150 nuclear missiles at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, fourteen airmen are under investigation for allegedly using cocaine. Last year, three launch officers, known as missileers, pleaded guilty to using ecstasy after an investigation into illegal drug possession uncovered roughly 100 officers involved in a cheating scandal.

cliff 567's picture

I do believe that I would enjoy cracking a rack of balls with you Bro, hayek.

hanasector's picture

Yuan devaluation is coming whether we like it or not, and

it will have great effect on gold price.  We need to study it and prepare for it.

I say devaluation is coming because China is in real bad shape in economically.  Their economy is based on Exports and they cannot compete with strong Yuan. Unlike what MSM or Donald Trump says about China currency manipulation, the real currency manipulator always has been the USA., but that's story for another time. 

Mass layoff and discontents of it citizenry are something Chinese government cannot overlook. Their survival is depend on providing jobs and foods for their people.  They have to devaluate Yuan. It's just matter of how much and how fast they are going to devaluate.

Outwardly and simplicity sake, Yuan devaluation looks Gold Negative because it leads to strengthening of USDollar. But in reality, I think Yuan devaluation is very Gold Positive. It all depends on a degree of devaluation and time frame. I say this for following reasons: 1. Great turmoil in world currency market creates uncertainty and that leads to buying safe haven assets like gold and silver. 2. Because Yuan still peg to USD, our appreciation should be smaller than of Euro or JPY, which translates Gold positive in USD term. 3. World stock market tanks and Bond yields go down even further giving Gold more favorable investment option.

Anyone out there with different or additional assessments on what potential effects of Yuan devaluation to Gold Price.

tyberious's picture

Mistakes Made on the Cruz Sex

tyberious's picture

Should be interesting

Hugh Hendry: "If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall

hanasector's picture

One thing that makes Chinese government hesitant to devaluate is

Capital outflow.  They need all the money they need to stay in China and invested, but devaluation will cause greater capital outflow to other countries.

hanasector's picture

Yuan devaluation means higher price of Gold in Yuan

Which means what? Is that lead to less demand for Gold by Chinese or greater demand for Gold because of increasing price of Gold? It also speeds up some form of gold backed Yuan currency? More I dig into this devaluation more questions. What are your thoughts?

Mickey's picture

Gold up about 16% ytd

while oi is also way up along with no increase in gold available to be delivered.

the cost to keep gold from an even larger price increase is increasing. 

We will see a lot of rolling this week. 

And just like the naked shorts do not expect  to have to deliver thats because the longs mostly do not expect to take  delivery. It is a casino for both sides.

think about the 2x and 3x leveraged funds. Both upside and downside which are in there managing their positions. Both long and short. 

its not just the banks or Fed playing, its many players but the big boys use all this to their advantage.

in 2006 the oi was 25o,ooo contracts for gold while there was 5 million oz registered for delivery, a 5:1 ratio.

at some point it breaks but everybody here with UGLD and AGQ  is helping the comex game. Just buy physical or buy some options on gld and slv to drive activity out of comex.

USLV and DSLV pretty much offset, and that too creates long and short oi.

then, remember jnug and nugt are just using option on the underlying. There is shrinkage as there is a middleman , the fund, taking the vig. You can do it that way or do it yourself. 

Think about this. 

Btw, i do think it will suddenly and surprisingly break, but of course i have no clue when. Thats why i bought puts Thursday. If it breaks and next week gold is up 10% i just lose a bit on the puts. The stock market and bond market is not much different as everything is gamed, because everything is messed up. Very complex w ith a lot of moving pieces that most do not even want to know about.

tyberious's picture

Lord help us

“City” of Waste: Fukushima Cleanup Now Up to 10.7 Million 1-ton Bags of Radioactive Waste

by Matt Agorist, Activist Post:

The fifth anniversary of the Fukushima disaster was on Friday, March 11. Since that fateful day in 2011, the Japanese government and the United States have continued to deny the lingering effects of this catastrophic event.

An estimated $21 billion has been spent on cleanup efforts since 2011, including funding for a team of remote activated robots capable of going to high-dose radiation areas of the plant where humans cannot enter and survive.

However, it has now emerged that at least five of these robots have been lost to the dangers that lurk in Fukushima Daiichi’s severely damaged nuclear reactors and waste treatment buildings.

Read More

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