TFMR Podcast - Friday, February 26


The pullback that we've been expecting has begun in earnest but that doesn't mean its all bad and it certainly doesn't mean that we're now headed to new lows. So, come on in and let's discuss what will likely happen next.

We begin today with another updated look at the all-important USDJPY:

We then review these three charts of gold:

These two charts of silver:

And though it may not feel like it, the HUI was actually UP for the fifth week in a row:

Finally, we discuss the latest CoT: And these two charts which accompany it:

Have a great weekend!



Feb 27, 2016 - 8:11am


I love Gold rush and Bering sea gold. Watching people plan, invest and labor to make a living is nothing short of what America ONCE was. But I have to tell you Donno that Malcolm Turnbull, your new Aussie pres. with close ties to Goldman Sachs, would be very unhappy with you! He would tell you that the US dollar is in fact as good as GOLD!!! Why would we need to risk lives diving into a cold sea when Ben Bernanke or Janet Yellen can tap off a few trillion from their keyboard in less than a fraction of second? Could the men and women of Gold Rush create 16 trillion in moments to save the global banking system? Sadly no one saw how valiant that action was so Ben Bernanke wrote his own book about having the courage to act.

Stick with better American shows about reality: Honey Boo Boo is a classic, American Idol (farting out the star spangled banner is an art form!!), the Housewives of some shithole indebted State, America's biggest loser are all great programming and I can guarantee you there will be more.

She's one of the best, she's from Ukraine - she knows the GREEN MAN:

Type O Negative - Green Man - piano cover
Feb 27, 2016 - 8:11am

Sunday Tradition

I know it has been suggested that us Aussie's (well me at any least anyway), are at times a little rude, but I'd like to share with you in true Turd Sunday tradition, a little bit of Aussie culture.

You may never have heard of a band called 'The Angels' that I used to go and see in the late '70's in Sydney, but I guarantee those of you that make the mistake of listening to this track, may never be the same again (you may be found subsequently to have developed some 'rudeness' if not some bad language?).

Listen to the chorus by the crowd, and observe what the lead singer (the legendary Doc Neeson) has on his T-shirt!

This was back in the days when Australia had Aussie's in it and was not overly infested by limp dicked bureaucrats!

The chorus is my message to these bureaucrats, politicians and central bankers!


Video unavailable

And for any of you that listen to this classic, you will no doubt be tempted to see what this school band did with this fine sentiment and tune...

Upper Middle Bogan S01 E05 - Am I Ever Gonna See Your Face Again

For those of you thoroughly captivated now by this very essence of cultivation, finally, this track is outstanding. It epitomises the Turd spirit, although if anyone can decipher the lyrics, I would love to hear your interpretation?

After 38 years I still don't have a clue what they mean, but I used to play this song before going into any exam, or running onto a football field! Very motivational and anti-establishment...I think?

The Angels Take A Long Line

Ok, so for those of you that are still onboard this Aussie journey of culture, and you are somewhat leaning to becoming a surrogate Aussie, this final track might push you over the line to embracing your inner bogan, and surrendering your here hither too foolish American ways...

The Angels - Coming Down (1978)
Feb 27, 2016 - 8:13am

I've just been having a think

I've just been having a think about the gold/yen relationship and how things might eventually play out in terms of revaluing gold explosively. David Stockman who's made numerous correct calls, is strongly suggesting that China is going to crash soon.

Just imagine that that the Yuan really begins to plummet as they lose control of the credit markets there. Currencies can crash at breakneck speed once confidence is lost. Should that happen then we might expect the following chain reactions based on the carry trades and algos that seem to be in play:

1.) The Yen versus USD is going to spike.
2.) The stock market is going to crash in response and it's possible several Western banks, hedgefunds, oil producers etc will fall during this move.
3.) Gold is going to spike upwards taking out technical resistance points and drawing in massive amounts of Western capital and also in response to the Yen/Dollar move.
4.) With the diving stock markets, the US fed will then have the excuse it needs to act; the result of that will be the Yen/USD spikes further and sends gold way to the upside.
5.) China which is now in apparent full panic - then reveals much larger gold reserves to stabilise the market there - Yuan surges killing shorts. Alternatively with the price of gold set markedly higher already, Gold is part introduced for trade (e.g. oil purchases) - or even to back the SDR which is used to try and reflate the economy

So maybe we see gold sell off sharply for the next 2 weeks - moving back to 1110-1130 (just before the Fed meeting mid March?), then Fed then is actually stupid enough to raise rates again (may be this is a stretch though). China begins to crash and gold begins to rise again completing the reverse head and shoulders; from there we have lift off.

I guess - in reality although the timing may not quite happen in mid-March (although it may), when the Yuan appears to crash, that will be the beginning on the reset. That's our sign.

Please feel free to agree/disagree (politely!) with this hypothesis - just throwing it out there for feedback.

Feb 27, 2016 - 8:23am


I listened to your track, and there are some truly gifted musicians and people.

My wife has been watching all day American TV, and she says she has needed some therapy.

It occurred to me that this is infinitely better than retail therapy, so the DONNO is taking the pain!

(I must admit though that those girls on Vanderfuckingpump are truly gorgeous, and if I was there (I presume LA?), I would be there in that fine budois (er establishment) getting a skin full every night.


Except I can't understand the pussies - sorry excuses for blokes that these girls knock around with - absolute losers. (Except maybe Jax)

Safety Dan
Feb 27, 2016 - 8:27am

Pennant Pattern Developing With Target of 1282

$GOLD Technical Analysis Video 2/26/2016

$GOLD Technical Analysis Video 2/26/2016
Safety Dan
Feb 27, 2016 - 8:38am

2/24/2016 — NORTH JAPAN


The earthquake forecast issued 2 days ago literally called out North Japan as the next spot to move in the North Pacific. Now, 2 days after warning, the exact location expected to begin moving has indeed started to show noteworthy activity.

This new earthquake location in Japan is VERY close to the M9.0 mega-quake epicenter from the large March 2011 event which generated tsunamis which killed tens of thousands of people.

Any time we see activity strike near this location, we should watch out for additional larger activity, just in case.

More here:

Feb 27, 2016 - 8:40am


Read Tyberious's article, but must have missed the "Good" beer list. Can you post a link?

I'm sure I'm not the only other beer drinker around here.

Feb 27, 2016 - 8:41am


Who would you choose: Yellen and her keyboard or Vika and her keyboard?

Playing Pink Floyd - Echoes - Zurich, February 19 2011
Feb 27, 2016 - 8:53am

Wild Turkey vs Be

Stop drinking beer, switch to Wild Turkey, one of the few bourbons made with non-GMA corn, I think Four Roses uses non-GMO corn too - non-GMO allows for problem free export to countries with GMO bans.

Distilling probably leaves the Monsanto poisons behind.

Feb 27, 2016 - 9:17am

Safe Beer

SP here is the link that I had found for Safe Beers. Not sure if this addresses the Glyphosate Issue though.

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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