Out With The Old, In With The Jackass


Another holiday weekend is upon us so, as per tradition, we have another installment of a TFMR podcast with The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

Three main topics are discussed over the course of this 100+ minute discussion. The first 40 minutes deals with The Middle East, particularly Syria and Turkey. The next 20 minutes are spent discussing the recent "rate hike" by the Federal Reserve and the final segment primarily focuses upon falling crude oil prices and the impact on derivatives, interest rates and geo-politics.

You've got all weekend to digest this information so please make the time to give this a thorough listen. As usual, if you'd like to go into greater depth, we encourage you to consider a subscription to The Jackass' newsletter service, The Hat Trick Letter. There is no doubt that 2016 is going to be a wildly unpredictable and consequential year. Only quality analysis from trusted sources will help you to see your way through it.

Happy New Year to all!



Jan 3, 2016 - 9:48pm

@cch--dinner time

The regional ice supplier where I live has prominently displayed "Ice is Food!" on the top of their bags of ice. And all this time I thought ice was frozen water. Maybe I should send them your picture to add to the packaging!

Jan 3, 2016 - 8:28pm


Haven't heard Trump say anything about Wall Street going to jail. Sounds like another fascist.

CC Horses
Jan 3, 2016 - 7:49pm
Jan 3, 2016 - 5:41pm

Victory in Paris vs Monsanto

Victory in Paris vs Monsanto GMO Cabal

"Seralini’s group had just completed the world’s first feeding study of the effect on more than 200 rats of a diet of GMO corn over a period of a full two years at a cost of €3 million. The study found alarming instances of cancer tumors, severe organ damage and premature death in rats fed GMO corn treated with Monsanto Roundup with Glyphosate. It was Monsanto NK603 Roundup Ready corn. The patented term Roundup Ready meant the GMO corn was “ready” to resist one of the most toxic weed-killers in the world, Monsanto’s Roundup with a cocktail of highly toxic glyphosate and other trade secret chemicals.

The Seralini study was published after a four-month peer-review process by scientifically qualified colleagues and two years of research in absolute secrecy to avoid industry pressure. Within hours of the public release of the Seralini study, a coordinated global media campaign to discredit the conclusions was launched. No facts were presented, merely typical allegations that the study was “unscientific,” or that the wrong rats were used."


The entire field of so-called biotechnology is corrupt and rotten to its very unscientific, reductivist core. That should not surprise as it was created deliberately by America’s leading eugenics family and funded by their Rockefeller Foundation to advance their mad eugenics agenda at the very same time the Rockefeller Foundation was funding the Nazi eugenics research at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute in Berlin.

The Rockefeller Foundation Director of Medical Research for 34 years, when Molecular Biology was “invented” in 1938 through his foundation grants to universities such as California Institute of Technology and Cambridge University in England, was a man named Alan Gregg. Gregg once wrote, “There is an alarming parallel between the growth of a cancer in the body of an organism and the growth of human population in the earth ecological economy.” He then asserted that “cancerous growths demand food, but so far as I know, they have never been cured by getting it. The analogies can be found in our plundered planet.” James Stillman Rockefeller, former chairman of First National City Bank, later Citigroup, sat on the board of Monsanto until his death in 2004 at age 102.

GMO and their “weed-killers” are intended by its founders to kill us off as “useless eaters” or as I titled a recent article, “We’re the ‘weeds‘ for Monsanto Roundup Weed Killer.” That article discussed a new study by the group of Professor Seralini. It’s all there for you to discover if you’re interested in the health of yourself and of your children, relatives and friends."


Jan 3, 2016 - 4:56pm

@Angry Chef: MERS

I have it on good authority that the spread of MERS is exacerbated by excessive drinking of camel urine. (attribute: Mark Steyn)

EDIT: I could not find an icon/emoticon for either a camel or a glass of urine. Sorry.

Jan 3, 2016 - 4:20pm
Jan 3, 2016 - 4:19pm



Jan 3, 2016 - 4:09pm

Energy and PMs

I don't see a collapse in energy (oil) production in the near future but I do see a collapse in the junk bonds supporting (mal-invested) capex to produce expensive oil. Also I expect stocks to collapse since they are feeding on themselves with buy backs and not investing with a view to produce future income. (This stock collapse might be avoided by yet more currency dilution.)

This will lead to margin calls and liquidation of assets, including PMs. I expect currency to then flow into hard assets like PMs. The duration between the liquidation and purchase phase of PMs might be so fleeting that I am not planning to be able to capture any bottom.

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Jan 3, 2016 - 4:07pm

credible explanation

I'm in agreement. He did say that even though PM's matched the pattern of oil prices this would no longer continue due to ore grades. The barrel per oz is now higher and has not been understood by the market. What was once, say 10 oz per ton are now grams per ton, so mining co's have had to increase tonnage for the same yield as years gone by. So even though fuel prices are cheaper, they are using more fuel per oz. What that is I do not know off the top of my head. It makes sense to me that once this necessary input cost is recognized by the market, I hope, prices will rebound. I've read most companies are high grading to stay in business, this is fine for stacker, because when oil prices do rebound what grades are left will be more expensive.

Not to speak for SRS, but my understanding is that once the fractionalized, financialized, exponential monetary system fails, there is only one great asset class. And we all own it!

J Sieferttyberious
Jan 3, 2016 - 4:01pm

Re. SRSrocco discusses exponential human growth and cheap energy

Thanks for that tyberious.

I was interested in Steve St. Angelo's explanation of why the Gold Price will diverge from the Oil Price from this moment in time on so transcribed his words as well as I could.
From about 18:00 they are...

“It wasn’t until 2004 that we start seeing the price of oil really skyrocket. And it went from $25 up to $115 on average in 2011 so it wasn’t a coincidence that silver and gold went up with the price of oil. Now that being said let us include here. That’s how I saw the price of gold and silver moving.

However, the future value of gold and silver will not be tied to the price of oil.
It will be based upon the collapse of energy production. We are no longer able to afford high oil prices and we can’t add a lot more debt in the future to bring on this oil so we are going to see a collapse of oil production and its going to destroy the over $200 trillion in financial paper assets that derive their value on a growing economy which needs a growing energy supply.
So investors moving out of paper and into physical. And we are only talking 1 or 2 percent. We don’t need 9 or 20 percent [of investors] even though I think that many are going to try to. All we need is a 1 to 2 percent move into gold and silver and their prices will move in a direction that…I think they are going to really skyrocket. So that’s how I see it playing out over the next several years.”

Do forum members think this is a credible explanation? I'm just a bit unsure myself.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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