TFMR Podcast - Thursday, December 3


Wow! An absolutely historic day in the bond and currency markets leads to an equity selloff. However, the precious metals and miners were actually UP a little. Is this a good sign before another BLSBS Friday?

There's a lot to talk about today and we have to start somewhere. So, we begin today's podcast by discussing the imminent departure of the CME's "executive director for metals products" and we do so in the context of the two CME Gold Stocks reports that you see below. Be sure to click the three links, as well.

And I wanted to make sure that you saw this, too. Below is a chart of year-over-year changes to factory orders in the U.S. What a booming economy we have here. Mother Fellen had better raise rates...and pronto...before things overheat!!

Check out the moves today in the POSX, the Long Bond and the S&P:

This is all very interesting but paper gold is still primarily driven by changes to the dollar-yen:

And here are your daily gold and silver charts ahead of tomorrow's pivotal action:

Have a great rest of your day but look sharp and be ready for anything at 8:30 EST.



Dec 3, 2015 - 4:50pm

Numero Uno. Saw Turd Tweet

Numero Uno. Saw Turd Tweet it! A tweeting Turd certainly has an odd ring.

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:51pm

Numero uno

Duo then, on a historic day of 4% forex moves.

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:52pm



Dec 3, 2015 - 4:54pm


listening :)

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:56pm

Reserved for Marchas

HUI up to 114.32. Now to listen.

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:58pm

Top 100

And speaking of 100 - can we be too far off from the fabled 100 dollar move up in gold? Doesn't seem possible as long as the price is leashed to the JPY/USD. 

How does that end? Do we have to unplug the computers? Bix?


Dec 3, 2015 - 5:04pm

raoul pal

on fast money - cnbc today

Dec 3, 2015 - 5:52pm

GLD Calls

If the CME defaults, I take it my GLD calls will be worthless?

Dec 3, 2015 - 5:58pm

I don't know

I guess it depends on how far out of the money you are. 

It's the chance you take when fiddling with paper, though.

Dec 3, 2015 - 6:09pm

Duke U. Study Suggests The Fed Consistently Leaked Non-Public

Information to Select Insiders...

This excerpt from a Duke University study is just in from my friend Professor Anthony Sanders at George Mason University, who writes at Confounded Interest.

In reading the paper I did not necessarily get the sense that this was a nefarious form of communication. More like the kind of collegial exchanges of information that are so common to the revolving door nature of our modern financial regime. There are two sets of rules, and two methods of handling things. And insiders never speak ill of the actions of other insiders.

This is the 'money shot' from the abstract of the paper which is tracks the distribution of stock market gains over the FOMC information cycle:

"High return weeks do not line up with public information releases from the Federal Reserve or with the frequency of speeches by Fed officials. 

Systematic informal communication of Federal Reserve officials with the media and the financial sector is a more plausible information transmission mechanism. We discuss the social costs and benefits of this method of communication."

And in related news, the Congress has just used its power to block an investigation of its own insider trading. Again. 

Remember this blog post from 2011? Credibility Trap: US Congressmen and Their Staffs Regularly Engage In Insider Trading

It is hard to escape the credibility trap as a plausible explanation for the lack of serious financial reform and transparency in a system that has been shown to be plagued with a lack of sound regulatory oversight, price manipulation, and corruption in almost every major market.

I would certainly hope that there is a different explanation for what appears to be systematic insider trading since at least 1994.

Here is what Tony has to say about this Duke University paper at his blog:

boomer sooner
Dec 3, 2015 - 6:13pm

From my local/regional bank

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Dec 3, 2015 - 6:27pm
Dec 3, 2015 - 6:35pm

Rise of the Renminbi, Death

Rise of the Renminbi, Death of the Dollar

By Brittany Stepniak | Thursday, December 3, 2015

In lieu of China's economic woes this year, it appears as though it's still chugging right along, strategically expanding the economic powerhouse it has become over the past decade.

Now — as of this Monday — China's currency is gaining global significance, giving the dollar a run for its money. Indeed, China's renminbi (or the yuan) has been officially approved by the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) as a main world reserve currency, marking a huge milestone in China's goal to internationalize its currency and further its nation's global dominance. superpower

Some worry that this is a sort of checkmate move by China. Many countries believe China will, or already has, replaced the U.S. as the globe's superpower. 

According to the Pew Research Center, the consensus now is that the U.S. is still the top economy, but it is believed that the tide is turning here.


More from Pew Research Center:

In 17 of the countries surveyed, younger people are more likely to say China has or will replace the U.S. as the leading superpower. For example, 65% of Canadians ages 18-29 think China will or has replaced the U.S., while only 46% among those ages 50 and older say the same. This age gap also exists in the U.S. itself, as well as a diverse array of countries across the globe.

Pew research also indicates that a median of 55% of those surveyed across those 17 countries (excluding China) have a favorable opinion of China, which bodes well in China's role in this game of global dominance. 

Not to mention the fact that China's legitimately running with the big dogs now as it joins the world's most elite monies. Only four other currencies have the prestigious I.M.F. designation — the dollar, of course, the euro, the pound, and the yen.

Death of the Dollar?

This could have huge financial ramifications for the United States now that global investors have the option to borrow and invest in yuan. 

Already, in fact, emerging countries are en route to start various operations by borrowing the yuan, according to BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) Vice President Vladimir Kazbekov.

Here's what he had to say on the situation: 

Considering the stability of the Chinese currency and the scale of the Chinese debt market, I think that one of the first steps in providing the New Development Bank with funds may be entering the Chinese market to borrow in yuan. 


We want to find new flexible instruments of lending, to significantly reduce the time to consider a loan, and try to actively use the model of private-public partnership. 

Huang Yiping, Peking University economist and central bank monetary policy adviser, said: "The [reform] direction is very clear, [that is, towards] a more flexible yuan and market-driven interest rates, further opening up of the capital account and greater global use of the yuan." ren chart

You better bet your bottom dollar that greater global use of the yuan is going to put the dollar in jeopardy. No longer can the dollar so readily bank on being the primary ruler over universal trade and currency swaps...

It looks like the renminbi is well on its way to becoming a worthy rival. And the euro looks like it's in even more trouble than our dear ol' dollar...

Although there's no doubt that the dollar is still in the dominant position (for now), the euro — on the other hand — isn't faring so luckily. The renminbi is "quickly gaining ground on the euro," according to the New York Times

On the positive side, financial leaders are optimistic that the renminbi's newfound status will help improve the international monetary system at large and aid in the preservation of financial stability. 

Geopolitics, Greenbacks, and Gold

Still, fears about newfound geopolitical concerns are emerging in the West (chiefly the loss of control) in light of the recent I.M.F decision. The New York Times explains: 

As the renminbi becomes more deeply woven into the global economy, it undermines the ability of the West to impose financial sanctions on countries accused of human rights abuses and other violations, like Sudan and North Korea. Such countries can increasingly carry out transactions in renminbi.

China contends that it is crucial to respect nations’ sovereignty and that leaders should be allowed to set policy without fearing international criticism or intervention. China remains a close business and financial partner of Sudan and North Korea. Mr. Xi invited the president of Sudan to a recent military parade in Beijing.

Regardless, this is a historic event that will give countries more choices when it comes to banking. Additionally though, it will be more difficult for Western nations to use sanctions as a form of economic warfare now that there's a new rival in town. 

Near-term central bank demand for the yuan will obviously appear seemingly insignificant at first. But slow and steady usually wins the race. The renminbi's still got an uphill battle if it wants to truly compete with the dollar's dominance, but it's definitely chugging along quite competently... slow and steady

As demand increases for the yuan, Beijing's overall economic growth will rise in tandem with that yuan demand growth. The rise of the renminbi is therefore synonymous with the rise of China. The U.S. and the dollar certainly have their work cut out for them...

As you well know by now, "dollar-related complications" translates to "great news for gold bugs". Gold prices are still down substantially, but they're firming up on this I.M.F. news. Moreover, Credit Suisse just announced that it is more bearish on stocks than it's been in seven years...

I'd say all signs are definitively pointing to a gold rally in 2016

While we're waiting for the Fed rate hike decision (~2 weeks away), I'd keep my eyes on gold if I were you. China's really shaking things up in the financial realm and the Fed's liable to do the same. Be sure you've allocated some room in your portfolio for precious metals before the mainstream public catches on to what's going on...

Farewell for now,

Brittany Stepniak Signature

Brittany Stepniak

follow basic@AngelPubGirl on Twitter

Brittany Stepniak is the Project Manager and Editor for the Outsider Club. Her “big picture” insights have helped guide thousands of investors towards achieving and maintaining personal and financial liberties while pursuing their individual dreams in lieu of all the modern-day chaos. For more on Brittany, take a look at her editor's page.

*Follow Outsider Club on Facebook and Twitter.

Dec 3, 2015 - 6:55pm

Sentiment in gold lowest since 1999-2000

I was emailed this article from Seeking Alpha:

It talks about the Optimism Index developed by Sentimentrader. It is an index that I'm not familiar with, but it is said to be based on a number of establishment surveys as well as the options and futures markets. The Optimism Index at the lowest value for gold since 1999-2000:

Dec 3, 2015 - 7:12pm

GLD calls not the same as gold futures

however, if CME gold pit closes down, then we probably wil have chaos. Or chaos will cause CME gold pit closedown

Dec 3, 2015 - 7:21pm

It is critically important

It is critically important that you read and understand this from ZH. If Mother raises rates and the stock market pukes out in 2016, here's the reason why:

Dec 3, 2015 - 8:54pm

To the Victor the Spoils

SDRs By The Numbers.

SDR Percentage, Gold Percentage and GDP Percentage By Country

The currency weightings of the SDR are loosely related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and gold holdings of the countries whose currencies are represented by SDRs.

The correspondence, however, is not always close to one to one.

Under represented:

The Eurozone holds 49.7% of all gold of SDR countries, yet the Euro's latest SDR weighting is 30.93%.

China has 19.3% of the GDP of SDR countries, yet its SDR weighting is 10.92%.

Over represented:

The United Kingdom has just 1.4% of the gold of SDR countries and 5.4% of their GDP, yet its SDR weighting is 8.09%.

The United States has 37.5% of the gold of SDR countries and 32.3% of their GDP, yet its SDR weighting is 41.73%.

Dec 3, 2015 - 9:05pm

Really? Harriet Hunnable Quoting Jeffwee Cwistian . . .

After raising silver margin requirements five times in May of 2011, and claiming that she was not responsible (0:35-50 for driving the price of silver down almost 30%, the most that it had dropped in 30 years; Harriet Hunnable defers to an interview with Jeffwey Cwistian to back her up.

As an ex-Goldmanite just doing “god’s work” Harriet claimed that she was only attempting to reduce all that nasty “volatility” in the silver market and protect the “customer” (aka “muppet”).

Don’t be surprised if we see Harriet’s name show up on the corporate roster of Blythe Masters’ new blockchain start-up Digital Asset Holdings, as the two vampires team up to devise insidious ways to suck the life blood out of the bitcoin market.

Dec 3, 2015 - 9:07pm

Excellent. Nice work.

thank you 

Dec 3, 2015 - 9:29pm

John Batchelor - Gordon Chang - Frank Holmes China/Japan

10 min commentary on-going China/Japan:

China vs. Japan
aomegaa Rakka
Dec 3, 2015 - 9:54pm


WOW! Check out the facebook page of the Ulster Count NY Sheriff office.

He is encouraging every licensed gun owner to carry their weapons.

I'm proud to say I am a resident of Ulster County NY>

Dec 3, 2015 - 9:58pm
Revelation21.21 aomegaa
Dec 3, 2015 - 10:02pm

sheriff ulster co.

smart sheriff...

isn't it strange that Obama doesn't go out without the secret service who are ARMED ! Duh !!!

Dec 3, 2015 - 10:11pm

A whopping FOUR gold

A whopping FOUR gold deliveries today brings the total so far for the Dec15 contract to 44. What a freaking joke.

Dec 3, 2015 - 10:20pm

@ Turd

Lol no kidding man

Klingon aomegaa
Dec 3, 2015 - 11:42pm

Yes! Given the California

Yes! Given the California incident gun sales have exploded. Most people here in Florida with permits leave their weapons at home. No more. I suspect that a very large % of people with permits will now carry.

Note that in Fl with 18 million residents, there are 1.3 million concealed carry permits. If you figure 1/2 of the 18 million are kids, then 1.3/9 = ~14% of adults have cw permits. While a surprisingly large number of women carry, it still means that ~ 20% of adult men have permits.

Dec 4, 2015 - 12:51am

Peter Schiff

Schiff in his Chistmas doomsday article, an excerpt "For Schiff, there is no one else to blame but the Federal Reserve. As he sees it, the central bank's easy money policies have created a bubble so big that any prick could send the U.S. economy spiraling out of control. And that makes the possibility of hiking interest rates slim to none." I resemble that remark... I guess by "any prick", he means me...? Nah, that would be egotistical...maybe he means a FED prick....?

4 oz
Dec 4, 2015 - 12:56am
Dec 4, 2015 - 6:41am

I am confident that my

I am confident that my investments will be fine. I have stocks, but I've sold my bank, insurance and retail REITs and bought PMs. The stocks I've got now are things people will need, no matter what. Everyone will need hydro, apartments to live in, since they won't be able to buy a house, food and miners among other things. Yes, the stock market will tank and the good stocks will go down too. That just means they will be temporarily on sale. That's when you go in and buy them. A stockpile of food and other essentials and you'll be OK in most situations. If there is Armageddon, then I don't know. I don't think anyone will be OK in that situation.

Dec 4, 2015 - 8:24am


That is quite a pop


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Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
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1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
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1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
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1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
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Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

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