TFMR Podcast - Thursday, December 3


Wow! An absolutely historic day in the bond and currency markets leads to an equity selloff. However, the precious metals and miners were actually UP a little. Is this a good sign before another BLSBS Friday?

There's a lot to talk about today and we have to start somewhere. So, we begin today's podcast by discussing the imminent departure of the CME's "executive director for metals products" and we do so in the context of the two CME Gold Stocks reports that you see below. Be sure to click the three links, as well.

And I wanted to make sure that you saw this, too. Below is a chart of year-over-year changes to factory orders in the U.S. What a booming economy we have here. Mother Fellen had better raise rates...and pronto...before things overheat!!

Check out the moves today in the POSX, the Long Bond and the S&P:

This is all very interesting but paper gold is still primarily driven by changes to the dollar-yen:

And here are your daily gold and silver charts ahead of tomorrow's pivotal action:

Have a great rest of your day but look sharp and be ready for anything at 8:30 EST.



Dec 3, 2015 - 4:50pm

Numero Uno. Saw Turd Tweet

Numero Uno. Saw Turd Tweet it! A tweeting Turd certainly has an odd ring.

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:51pm

Numero uno

Duo then, on a historic day of 4% forex moves.

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:52pm



Dec 3, 2015 - 4:54pm


listening :)

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:56pm

Reserved for Marchas

HUI up to 114.32. Now to listen.

Dec 3, 2015 - 4:58pm

Top 100

And speaking of 100 - can we be too far off from the fabled 100 dollar move up in gold? Doesn't seem possible as long as the price is leashed to the JPY/USD.

How does that end? Do we have to unplug the computers? Bix?


Dec 3, 2015 - 5:04pm

raoul pal

on fast money - cnbc today

Dec 3, 2015 - 5:52pm

GLD Calls

If the CME defaults, I take it my GLD calls will be worthless?

Dec 3, 2015 - 5:58pm

I don't know

I guess it depends on how far out of the money you are.

It's the chance you take when fiddling with paper, though.

Dec 3, 2015 - 6:09pm

Duke U. Study Suggests The Fed Consistently Leaked Non-Public

Information to Select Insiders...

This excerpt from a Duke University study is just in from my friend Professor Anthony Sanders at George Mason University, who writes at Confounded Interest.

In reading the paper I did not necessarily get the sense that this was a nefarious form of communication. More like the kind of collegial exchanges of information that are so common to the revolving door nature of our modern financial regime. There are two sets of rules, and two methods of handling things. And insiders never speak ill of the actions of other insiders.

This is the 'money shot' from the abstract of the paper which is tracks the distribution of stock market gains over the FOMC information cycle:

"High return weeks do not line up with public information releases from the Federal Reserve or with the frequency of speeches by Fed officials.

Systematic informal communication of Federal Reserve officials with the media and the financial sector is a more plausible information transmission mechanism. We discuss the social costs and benefits of this method of communication."

And in related news, the Congress has just used its power to block an investigation of its own insider trading. Again.

Remember this blog post from 2011? Credibility Trap: US Congressmen and Their Staffs Regularly Engage In Insider Trading

It is hard to escape the credibility trap as a plausible explanation for the lack of serious financial reform and transparency in a system that has been shown to be plagued with a lack of sound regulatory oversight, price manipulation, and corruption in almost every major market.

I would certainly hope that there is a different explanation for what appears to be systematic insider trading since at least 1994.

Here is what Tony has to say about this Duke University paper at his blog:

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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