Discussing Deutsche Bank and Derivatives with Denver Dave


With the news of the massive writedowns, losses and other issues at German banking giant, Deutsche Bank, I thought it best to ring up our pal Dave Kranzler in order to see what he makes of it all.

If you missed the story over the past 24 hours, here are two links from ZeroHedge that summarize things:

And here's something that Dave wrote this morning before we spoke:

You might also see this:

And this, written four months ago at a site called NotQuant:

Please take the time to listen to this brief discussion and then consider the implications that a meltdown of Deutsche Bank might incur.



Oct 8, 2015 - 2:58pm

Audio quality

Events were moving fast this morning and Dave and I recorded this on short notice. Therefore, I had to record this from my office.

As luck would have it, the neighbor's lawn crew decided to show up right outside my window about halfway through the call. I've tried to mute/dampen the background noise but have not had any success.

My apologies and I hope it doesn't distract anyone from the quality of the information discussed.

Oct 8, 2015 - 3:09pm



Oct 8, 2015 - 3:18pm

Lehman x 10

I think I will buy some faz soon.

edit lol just checked the market and the dow is up 157 after being down all day. I guess I may buy faz just before the close.

Then let the financial system blow up and I can count my paper profits just before I convert them to money.

Oct 8, 2015 - 3:36pm

My Favorite Subject

DERIVATIVES. Now To Listen. Keep Stacking

Missed 4th by this much. Lol

J Siefert
Oct 8, 2015 - 3:36pm

A year or so ago Jim Willie was...

warning about a possible Deutsche Bank catastrophe one day in the future. He reckoned it was one of the most endangered banks around due to their derivative load.

EDIT From his site:


July 2013 the Three Big Banks at Failure Risk -- Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank (happening)

Oct 8, 2015 - 4:13pm


I haven't read this yet, but its a pricing model white paper.. I thought of you. :)


Oct 8, 2015 - 4:33pm

S&P 2020-2040

OK Kids,

S&P 2017 +/-

We're getting close so keep an eye out.

Also, I believe there is an inverse ratio proportion between the amount of "Spraying" of Aluminum, Barium, and Strontium into the atmosphere, in conjunction with HARP, and the timing of the economic collapse. They have been spraying like Neanderthals here on the Central coast of California for the past month.

Soon I will be posting a series of photos to empirically verify my views (no pun intended).



This is all coming apart at the seams.



Please first review this man's credentials. He is the Thomas Paine of our day.

This is a short page......



This is the Wolfowitz doctrine in a nutshell.

And take time to listen to none other than Wesley Clark talk about that Doctrine and its projections in 2007--Stunning!

Try and read the headlines on Zerohedge.com just for today and yesterday!



Normalcy Bias precludes most from simply looking up! The photos on that site are the same that I see every day from our property.

Again, it is my belief is that there is an inverse ratio proportion between the amount of "spraying" (geoengineering) that is occurring and the amount of time before the "crash". The spraying as been occurring at an exponentially higher rate every week for the past month! Think it through. No water in California means no food for the rest of the Nation. It means that we most likely will be "allowed" minimal rain this year. That pineapple express that was headed towards us about 10 days ago was diverted and dissipated. I was very disappointed because it set a pattern in motion once again. No let up.

The paradigm shift comes when China revalues its gold hoard and Russia finishes with Syria and stops US hegemony in the Middle East. The Petrodollar is dead.

It is estimated that 40-60 million people will die within the first three weeks of this crash. There will be shortages after three days. Credit lines will be cut. Then there will be riots, looting, and murder.

There are some things more valuable than gold.

Nothing occurs in a vacuum

It is all by design and implemented over time.

Best to all. Prepare.

Oct 8, 2015 - 5:41pm


How very kind of you! I can see why you thought I would like it - it is written in my language. I used to work hard at analysing and trying to value gold, but due to the huge stock, the moneyness and the opaque .gov meddling, I have given up! Not on ownership, just on trying to understand.

Oct 8, 2015 - 5:47pm

I guess "we're not in Kansas anymore"

​except maybe TF.


​BTW: Reverse repos are down from $641B on Sept 30 to $282B yesterday. Just quarter end window dressing but the windows definitely need a higher level of dressing this past 21 months.


Oct 8, 2015 - 5:47pm

Pricing Model of Gold.

Maybe some of the ideas will be transferable to silver. I do aerospace engineering and have been learning about Kalman Filters. Apparently they are useful in confirming signals in noisy data. Ive wanted to chase the quant lifestyle, but work keeps me too busy.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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