Discussing Deutsche Bank and Derivatives with Denver Dave

68

With the news of the massive writedowns, losses and other issues at German banking giant, Deutsche Bank, I thought it best to ring up our pal Dave Kranzler in order to see what he makes of it all.

If you missed the story over the past 24 hours, here are two links from ZeroHedge that summarize things:

And here's something that Dave wrote this morning before we spoke:

You might also see this:

And this, written four months ago at a site called NotQuant:

Please take the time to listen to this brief discussion and then consider the implications that a meltdown of Deutsche Bank might incur.

TF

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James Crightoncanary
Oct 9, 2015 - 2:20pm

@canary

.... GDXJ underperforming:

perhaps it is that in the early stages of this recovery (in gold) punters feel safer with the blue chips. When more secure, they will pile into the marginals. I suspect that might be the explanation. So, I look forward to 10% days in the not-too-distant-future ?

jc

realitybiter
Oct 9, 2015 - 11:30am

Beaten Dog Syndrome - silver x3

BDS. It's what's for dinner....in 2008, SLW was destroyed, down 90%. When it was for sale I bought a chunk for $2 and change..call it 2.50. It got to 3 and I doubled down.....it got above 6 and I started selling....argh....started buying back over 10...if only I had some paitience.........The pain of the last 4 years is going to make it very difficult to ride out price gains....I think what we all need to do is let the charts guide us. for example: the dow to gold ratio is right on the edge of death cross for dow....sell paper buy metal....and it will flip, again...I don't know when, but it did in 2012....really between 2010 and 2013....I ignored it at my peril...idiot!.....anyway, I think smarty marty is right, regardless of his opinion on manipulation.....stocks are in for YEARS of pain, in general....maybe the commodity sector does okay and currency debasement allows it to prosper...but the financial sector and everyone who lives off of the dollar hegemony benefit is going to get crucified, imho......I wish I had a good handle. I just watch, think, and really try to keep a free mind....bias really messes you up and we all, self included, have it....

lakedweller2
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:37am

Miners

Most of my miners gapped up at opening...then dropped. So I guess they covered the gaps down already and can go higher the rest of the day

I am practicing positive thinking.

Dr J has to be concerned as he has executed a difficult plan to protect his family...now this in his own backyard. Best wishes to him for a quick resolution of this event.

SilverX3
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:29am

@reality: You always have a

@reality: You always have a good handle on all things (the markets I'm referring to, of course). Appreciate your posts.

When I say the Big Picture, I should clarify that I mean in the next 2 months (as I do trade the ETFs). Of course, looking at the past 20 year history, metals are super depressed. I usually speak in very short-term nature; hopefully people don't confuse what I'm saying with the long-term view of physical ownership.

J Siefert
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:27am

Re: Good news?

Good news indeed! Great article!

I personally hope the Russians can get the US's military to wind in their terrorist activities in the Middle East, and elsewhere.

canary
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:21am

@James Crighton

I've noticed that too. Same today. But I remember, when metals wend down (the week before BLS) I was surprised to see GDXJ acting quite "better" than GDX.

Picabo
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:19am

Zinc

Glencore shut down some Zinc mining operations...wouldn't it be nice to see large gold miners announce the same?

realitybiter
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:18am

Silver X3

Pullback? Maybe. Maybe not. Big Picture? Take a 20 year picture of the hui and the last two weeks are insignificant on the screen. IMO, the manipulations are real and they have created such tension in the market that when, and no on knows when that is, the tension is released and real price is discovered, a 10.0 earthquake market will result. Guessing the day that happens, building your portfolio next to a cliff will be quite risky...All you can do is maintain position and wait. wait. wait. The dollar clearly has a death cross....simple TA on the dollar, going back to 1990, puts the next leg down to a dollar index with a 5 handle....the last time this happened was post 2000....

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SilverX3
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:14am

What's up with

What's up with zinc?!?!?!?!

UP 9% already. I call that an UPside EXplosion!

Dr. P. Metals
Oct 9, 2015 - 10:14am

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