TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 18


Lots of talk about falling copper prices today and how they might impact paper gold and paper silver. Recall that we've been monitoring this closely since late July but we should probably go ahead and discuss this again today.

So, for today, this 25-year monthly chart of old DrC. This chart shows the terrible monthly close of July 31, the light support near 2.20 that might lead to the next bounce and the historical long-term support near 1.40 that might be the ultimate bottom again.

And, for fun, here's a chart of copper and crude together. Notice the decent long-term (and economically understandable) correlation. Note, too, that this current decline in BOTH does not bode well for the future of the global economy.

Here's something different for today...Some long-term projections for the stock market. We discuss these two charts in detail:

And here are your updated daily chart for gold and silver:

Don't forget that it's Tuesday. This means that if you're free at 10:00 pm EDT tonight, you can stream John Batchleor and Professor Cohen through either of these links: OR and the TFMetals chatroom for discussing the discussion can be accessed here:

As background, please be sure to read this: and watch this:

Have a great rest of your day,



Aug 18, 2015 - 5:31pm


#1 Confirmed yes

Aug 18, 2015 - 5:31pm
Aug 18, 2015 - 5:32pm



...but it still feels good to be part of the Turdville Orchestra!

Aug 18, 2015 - 5:38pm


I like the positive bias for the contest predictions smiley

Aug 18, 2015 - 5:45pm
Aug 18, 2015 - 5:50pm

See you (Janet) in September...

.....Have a good time but remember...There is danger in the summer moon.

Sept. 17...FOMC.

Aug 18, 2015 - 6:03pm

Even worser for Hillary

Aug 18, 2015 - 6:14pm

New quote from Hillary

"I did not have sex with that server."

There are just so, so many directions I can take with this one. I really hope it becomes popular.

Aug 18, 2015 - 6:27pm

Sex with a server!

Very Clintonian. H/T x 10,000 for that.

The Dow is now in a down channel.

The S&P is running into the end of a very large "long in the tooth" triangle. It has to make a move shortly. (Already has, yes it was down, but was saved by a massive candle wick maker.)

The RUT was strong and now is weak.

The NASDAQ still going "strong" with about 3 stocks out of the whole index holding it up.

Gold holding up well. Silver playing Rodney Dangerfield.

GDXJ getting back up like a champion after each body blow (Boxing. Not the Lewinsky.).

The question is: what way does gold go with the "deflation"?

I know the bias around here is down. But who is really left over by now to sell mining shares or paper gold futures? Everyone who bought in the last decade and a half has already sold!

Aug 18, 2015 - 7:17pm


The Farce is strong with that one.

Aug 18, 2015 - 7:18pm
Aug 18, 2015 - 7:36pm


Could a close below 2040 do it? I think below that would call the hogs.

Aug 18, 2015 - 7:40pm


That gutter slut has a long way to fall. I approve.

there is a list that used to get emailed around of all the people that witch and her lying husband had killed. Looked like a myth, but I knew one of them. Looks like it's coming back around for them.

Aug 18, 2015 - 7:41pm

server wiping

Prosecutor: Is it true that you tried to wipe your server clean?

Hillary: It depends on what the meaning of the word is, is.

Aug 18, 2015 - 8:05pm

Jeff Neilson

Provides an excellent explanation of China's gold reporting.

Jeff Nielson: GOLD WARS!!

Jeff Nielson: GOLD WARS!!
Safety Dan
Aug 18, 2015 - 8:38pm

HUI & GLD Combo Chart…Picture

HUI & GLD Combo Chart…Picture Perfect

Posted on August 17, 2015, 12:19 pm by Rambus

Below is the combo chart we’ve been following very closely for a very long time which shows the big two year trading ranges for the HUI and GLD. Both of the big trading ranges started to build out with a big gap to the downside in April of 2013. They have taken on slightly different consolidation patterns but both two year patterns have downsloping top and bottom trendlines which suggests weakness. They both broke to the downside together about four weeks ago with one backtest to their bottom trendline so far. At this point in time nothing is broken yet with their breakout moves which still looks normal.


Below is a daily chart for the $XJY which shows a similar situation that the GLD finds itself in at the moment. You can see the big 18 month black bearish falling wedge which was made up of two individual smaller consolidation patterns which is fairly typical of big consolidation patterns. I’ve put a green circle around the breakout and backtest area that we followed at the time which showed a normal breakout but then the XJY had a strong backtest. If you look real close you can see a tiny H&S top that formed just above the bottom black trendline, labeled strong backtest, which when completed gapped down taking out the bottom black rail of the bearish falling wedge at the same time. And if you look really really close you can see one last little backtest to the bottom black rail before the impulse move finally got going to the downside. The reason I’m showing you this chart is because sometimes things aren’t textbook but the essence of the big black bearish falling wedge was still in play and worked out as expected.


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Aug 18, 2015 - 8:41pm

Thx Chiron

I won't elaborate because this is a party line, but there is a Judgment to come, and I don't envy their positioning.

Aug 18, 2015 - 8:45pm


Vince Foster? Sorry you knew someone that was hurt by them. The web is wide.

I once rode up on a chair lift with Clinton's pilot. He flew him around for over 5 years in Arkansas. The man told me that one time after landing he stood by the plane as Clinton got off. Clinton walked up to the pilot and asked him who he was. The man just stood there shocked and said, "I am your pilot." That story has always served as a reminder to me what jerks these people are. No memory or courtesy for anyone who could not do anything for them.

Family friend of mine went to law school with Bill. He shagged just about every chick in his class. For the reunion, they had pins made: "Smile if you slept with Bill." Bill just laughed at that one.

4 oz
Aug 18, 2015 - 9:03pm
Aug 18, 2015 - 9:28pm
Aug 18, 2015 - 10:31pm

Musings on Time and Pressure

Strange days. The end of the world is coming at any time meme is growing long in the tooth. I think there's desperation of the part of the prognosticators to be on the band wagon this go round. As someone who's been paying close attention to this sphere for some years, I've noticed that these things cycle around every six months or so. Remember December 21, 2012 was going to be the end of the world? It wasn't. Remember July and Silver market codes from V and his moron sidekick? Didn't happen. There are a handful of others that come to mind. They happen around the end and the middle of every year. It's always something. Greece was supposed to knock over the house of cards at the beginning of this year. That failed.

Now it's some mystical Kabalistic mumbo jumbo about the shitmetah or some such and all this September 23 bullshit. I'm going out on a limb here, and I'm gonna make the call that nothing is going to happen. If I'm wrong, I'll own up and you guys can break my balls over it all you want.

Nothing about this train wreck is going to happen overnight. I've still got my special bottle in the cabinet awaiting the long foretold stock market crash. I've been hearing Greg Mannarino drone on and on about the market signals flashing red and red alert this and that for a couple of years now. He may be an astute trader who makes more than he loses, but he hasn't called the big picture correctly at any point he said a crash was imminent.

As the late great George Carlin would say, "The fix is in, the game is rigged, the table is tilted."

So where am I going with this? This is a slow boil. It's a watched pot. Nothing in the currency wars is going to bust this thing loose. Ukraine isn't going to spill over suddenly into an all out conflagration. China did not get bombed with a super secret space based weapon. (Note how the tactical nuke hypothesis was rebuked pretty universally early on, so now the fear mongers have to invent some super secret technology that the West used to "punish China" for the Yuan devaluation?)

This is a prison break. The petro dollar is the jail. Every human force on the planet is working on breaking out. It will be like the "Shawshank Redemption," or the "Count of Monte Cristo." An escape has been concieved and is slowly, methodically being implemented, a pocket of dirt in the exercise yard at a time. The inmates do not want to burn the prison down all at once while they are still locked inside. Too risky, though a few might manage an escape. Everyone has to work together for everyone to survive. In poker, this would be known as implicit collusion. Nobody has any overt agreements, no explicit plans or collaborations. But everybody knows to keep their mouth shut and don't get in each other's way.

It will be move and counter move. It will be slow. There will be hiccups, but the jailers will still say that the prison is running well, and everything is secure.

Don't expect fireworks. You'll be disappointed. When the final breakout happens, you'll know without a doubt it has come. Today is not it. Neither is September 23, 2015.

Say I've got normalcy bias. I'll keep making my wine and improving my homestead, tending my gardens, and working my projects. And piling up sand in the exercise yard one pocket at a time.

Aug 18, 2015 - 10:37pm

Bron Suchecki (latest GATA)...classic.

1. Informative,

2. Intelligent,

3. Polite,

4. Admits gold manipulation.

And there is the sarcasm....But it's not directed toward the perpetrators (as one would expect)...No...It's deserved for their victims....the ones vocal about the crime...Us.

Classic "Look up, kick down" personality.

Aug 18, 2015 - 10:49pm

Shanghai down 2.2%

Waiting for Chinese gov. response.

Aug 18, 2015 - 11:00pm

Also known as arrogant "Total

Also known as arrogant "Total Douchebag" personality.

p.s. Actually, I shouldn't be so hard on ole Bron. "Total Douchebag" is too strong of a term. Regular old "douchebag" is likely sufficient.

Aug 18, 2015 - 11:02pm

One more...

Art Cashin always used to say: "Don't go around predicting the end of the world because you're only going to be right once".

Note that ole Turd has stayed far away from the September/Shemitah/Reset bandwagon.

Aug 18, 2015 - 11:11pm

Football and broadcasting

Football and broadcasting legend, Frank Gifford, passed away last week at the age of 84. The quote below is from his wife. Would you take this exit? I would. I'd hit this bid right now. 35 more years and then check out. Still fully in control of body and mind right up to the final moments.

"He might've been the happiest, most content man at this point in his life," she shared. "He passed away instantly that morning, all dressed in what he knew was my favorite outfit — white shirt, very tight black jeans — having his coffee, watching his TV, getting ready to go, ready for church, and excited about what we were gonna have for lunch. I’m grateful the Lord took him that way. Because the only thing Frank was ever afraid of in his entire life was being a burden to those he loved."

Golden Turtle
Aug 18, 2015 - 11:22pm

That blip yesterday was to paint a top in gold/silver yuan ratio

Think about it. Why would silver plunge 4% and gold go unchanged. The only plausible answer is to top out a gold/silver ratio chart. Look at the gold/silver yuan ratio. Clockwork! Over 30 years! Do you think they would let a perfect 30 year trend line break further? I don't. The Chinese are expert chart painters. Both gold and silver are about to be catapulted up. Especially silver.

Aug 18, 2015 - 11:30pm

Trump for President!

Because America needs someone who knows how to declare bankruptcy.

Apologies if already posted.

Golden Turtle
Aug 18, 2015 - 11:38pm

Has anyone considered this?

I don't know if this has been considered yet but I think that this is all feigned weakness by China. They have so much control they can afford to play these games. Think about hey crash market on purpose to get foreign investment out, then they buy it on cheap before it skyrockets. If not said yet, said here. This is probably the oldest trick in the book when it comes to markets and has happened throughout history many times, BUt not with the type of control that China has. They are like the boxer who wants to drag on a fight... They feign weakness to get people to bet against them and then all of a sudden, so much strength and they knock out their opponent. The opponents appear to be matched, but in terms of economic and market control, the Chinese have overwhelming control. What we are not realizing is that this metals reversal truly ramps up, even the West will have to admit defeat and join their side. This will be so bullish we can't even imagine, in war, many times when an oppenent loses, they change sides. This is what is about to occur in the metals market. China is about to win the only battle that really matters and the West will be forced to switch sides, which is going to cause a whole lot of global immediate turmoil, but for long term world stability it will be the best possible thing that can happen.

Auggie Doctor J
Aug 19, 2015 - 12:04am

Prosecutor: Is it true that you tried to wipe your server clean?

Hillary: It was in the bathroom Sir, I knew I was supposed to wipe something clean.

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