A2A with "SRSrocco" Steve St. Angelo

121

A tremendous and timely A2A today with Steve St. Angelo, better known as SRSrocco. As an independent energy, metals and mining analyst, Steve brought a lot of wisdom and knowledge to the call. Please be sure to give it a listen.

Over the course of this 58-minute presentation, Steve addresses a number of topics, including:

In the end, I felt like this had been a really good call and an excellent use of time. Please give a listen. I'm confident you'll feel the same.

TF

  121 Comments

CPE
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:05am

@horse and pforth

Nice new pic Horse!

@pforth it's not that we are little fish (though we are), it's that if I sell an ounce of Au right now it impacts the market by giving the monkeys 112 "ounces" of paper "gold" to throw right back in a sell order after buying my 1 real ounce. So my selling has the opposite effect vs a normal market. My selling would prolong, not shorten, the manipulation.

The manipulations end when there are no more real ounces to sell, only paper.

StevenBHorse
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:06am

Fuck this shit

I am going to the pool with the kids.

No good can come from staring at the price action.

They are determined to break the market, and they will probably succeed.

Goldencross
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:15am

Have a nice r&r Turd! But we all know what happens next.

We all know what happens when Turd takes a few days off...

Yep it all comes crashing down.

So this will probably go on for an few days more.

jaw777
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:22am

One more year of this shit

Shit will not hit the fan until Obama is getting ready to leave office (some time in 2016). I agree that gold will do a 50% retracement and even the believers will say to hell with it. True capitulation is when true believers won't even buy gold at $900 or silver at $10. We aren't there yet, but based on the sentiment of this board we are starting to see the end. When Turd shuts down this site we'll know we are close.

I'm with the Horse. Turn off your computer. Go to the pool or lake or whatever. Keep saving your fiat until even you are disgusted by your ownership of precious metals. And just as you are about to push the sell button... don't. At the risk losing your marriage and your credibility with your children, and against everything your heart is telling you... BUY.

CPE
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:23am
Chiron
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:28am

Thoughts on capitulation

Capitulation is an emotional description, in my opinion, equal to "peak fear". Nobody wants to buy; everyone wants to sell; thus, the "no bid" state that Rick Rule describes. This creates a "waterfall decline" in price and is a natural phenomenon, based on irrational fear, that is supposed to end bear markets, but we are not in a natural market. I think peak fear was last November when the latest floor broke. This is currently just beating something into oblivion. The dead horse is now glue! Roadkill with both treads, forward and reverse. Capitulation is the direct opposite of mania, currently going on in the regular markets. If people are waiting for sentiment in the metals to get worse, I do not know how that is possible. There has been huge manipulation in the market, above and beyond what is normally occurring, for the last 6 months to keep gold and silver trading in this low range (gold 1150-1220, silver 14.50-17.50). Every level break down has been the same approach: hit gold/silver price with paper shorts, drop price until support, flip to ease physical restraints on the smash, cap the rally, assault with more shorts. This is how the PM price has been "walked down". The charts show the gradual step down constrictions on the gold and silver prices through levels of support. Thus, the lack of a natural market would suggest that you can not rely on natural signals. This bear market has been so long and so brutal, that sentiment is already sub-basement. Lifetime levels of extremes are currently present: mania in general market vs ultra-bearish in the metals. If you look at the charts, you get large spikes in the physical demand at these levels and major spikes of buying in the miners at this level. Just look at the charts, for good sakes. Prices are now lower than peak panic of 2007 crash and way back to 2000 levels. Could there be some downside? Absolutely. But how much farther could prices really drop? Eventually you run out of sellers. I think the turn is very close. You have two distinct crazy extremes. The "elite" are doing everything in their power to push up general markets and push down PMs. Mean reversion and compound interest are the two most powerful forces in financial "nature". I have been wrong so far, because I did not possible think the "markets" could be pushed to such extremes. But at some point these interventions will fail and things will reverse.

brokerk22
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:33am

Chinese announced gold holdings

Guys the announcement by China that increased their holdings to 1587 tons is not the official holdings that will be released before or around October. This is just an update to their holdings. There is more to come.

jaba
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:37am

@Chiron

Well said.

GoldenWizard
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:38am

Crazy

Wow, maybe we will see gold in the three digits and silver in single digits after all.....


Jul 17, 2015 - 10:39am

On capitulation In this

On capitulation

In this market looking at buyers tells only half the story about capitulation.

There will come a time when large sellers doing the selling capitulate due to the rising cost of selling becoming too much for them. You just wait till they run out of puff.

CPE
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:42am

@argentus

Excellent point, I agree!

pforth
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:43am

How much lower can it go with no more sellers?

Easy... if there are almost no other sellers (or buyers) in the market, citibank and jpm can sell paper back and forth to one another at any price they fancy.

Fatso
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:44am

Perhaps things are looking up

This "Greek deal", the creditors want assets not paper bonds so perhaps soon more people will want physical things except all the PMs will be gone by then. Parabolic anyone?

SilverX3
Jul 17, 2015 - 10:48am

Silver holding 14.60-14.80

Silver holding 14.60-14.80 thus far............


Jul 17, 2015 - 11:05am

Was China gold announcement the "green light" for sellers?

Perhaps I am misinterpreting this, but I get the sense that the extremely tepid 600 ton additional reserves announcement by China is being interpreted by the market as a green light for sellers. A signal that China isn't going to rock the international boat with a monster announcement of 10 times that much, and are going to be playing nice, for now. Absent the threat of an immediate rip to the upside, sellers are emboldened to take price to new lows...

Maybe I'm wrong, but I am sure not seeing anything to scare the Bears right now. Lots of buying at 1150 region has now been absorbed by the market. People who thought that price was a steal have had every chance to buy, and apparently this was absorbed. Guess we'll see how much more buying power is stirred up at the 1050-1100 level. Sucks, but that's what it looks like to me.

PS- It looks like we have also learned that the big banks are doing their shorting through other channels to disguise their footprints on the COT. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see any other way to interpret price action vs COT structure over the last month.

Pining 4 the Fjords
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:08am

No argument here, my friend

Certainly seems plausible to me. 

Chiron
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:12am

@ Argentus

Thanks for the response. I always read what you write very carefully and often twice! You know a lot about trading and seem to be a professional. To me it seems that things are backwards here. Large drops in price of the metal and the miners have caused increased buying at the bottoms, with some of the largest green volume bars in the lows of last November. We have not reached the lows of Dec 2014 and March 2015 yet in GDXJ, but they are approaching. What would signal an increase of the "sellers" here. A new low with positive divergence to buy?

Bohemian jaw777
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:24am

@jaw777

"We aren't there yet, but based on the sentiment of this board we are starting to see the end. When Turd shuts down this site we'll know we are close."

That's the best line I've read today. ;-)

jezfry
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:25am

If gold wasn't going east

Where did it go? 

jezfry
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:34am

If not gone east where did it

If not gone east where did it go, or is it going?

It's going out of sight ..... that's what.

@Chiron ..... check your PM or chat menu.

Blythesshrink
Jul 17, 2015 - 11:37am

http://www.silverdoctors.com/

https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold-eagle-sales-surge-due-to-financial-tu...

Surely this draw down of inventory (the above link is just one example) must require a big restocking exercise which is going to squeeze the price shortly?

To me this action is panic from the planners (although it may not look like it), something is going down behind the scenes is my guess - although we may never know.

Underdawg
Jul 17, 2015 - 12:14pm

Silver Eagle sales

Evidently not only silver eagle sales halted temporarily, but I had purchased a new issue 5 oz Blue Ridge ATB that was pre-orderd that were expected to be at the dealers store by Jun 30 and then delivered to me by Jul 7, still no coin.

AlienEyes
Jul 17, 2015 - 4:07pm

Thoughts....

Yellen the felon : Siss on you pister. You ain't so mucken futch anyway.

China : If you think the majority of mainland Chinese don't still look at westerners as big nose "foreign devils" you need a lobotomy. After all, you have nothing to lose. 

Joe Biden : See how much good a lobotomy can do? People use to think he was a mindless d!ckhead. Now he's a political comedian.

O'Bummer : It's true that the commie muzzie is a half assed, half-breed, half wit BUT he is still smarter than the 50+% of the brain dead Americans and illegal Mexicans that voted for him....twice.

Pity the poor jews : Eighty percent of them voted for O'Bozo, twice. Now they hate him because he's a muslim and screwed the jews including the Israelis royally. The dumb sh!ts hate the USA and the goy so much that they forgot where they live. When they all end up in a shower (again), they will be howling that they didn't do anything wrong (again). May God help the 20% that aren't criminally insane.

el Presidente Marxist mofo : There is a growing sentiment that he should be hanged for high treason. I am dead set against this view. Instead, I think he should be dipped in sh!t, set on fire and be buried face down in a sanitary landfill with a stake driven through his heart. Did I mention that I don't like the s.o.b. very much ?

Don't worry about me landing on his hit list. I've been on it ever since I called his wife a no class flatfooted Sasquatch.

Damn! I forgot to take a Xanax. sad

"You won't give a damn with alprazolam."

Swineflogger
Jul 17, 2015 - 4:29pm
Swineflogger
Jul 17, 2015 - 4:38pm
benque
Jul 17, 2015 - 4:41pm

Wow!

Thats a lot of booooo-teeee there. Sure am glad its not a video.

AlienEyes
Jul 17, 2015 - 5:07pm

@ Swineflogger

LOL !

To quote Richard Prior, "Ass for days."

G-Rod
Jul 17, 2015 - 6:09pm

Who's the linebacker...

... next to the President?

And why is he wearing a dress?

G-Rod
Jul 17, 2015 - 6:23pm

OK...

So Gold is down $10 bucks, and Silver is down 20 cents.

That's an opportunity to buy more.

We have a big cultural factor in play in the west that something is only valuable if the price is high, and that it is definitely not valuable if the price is low.

That view ignores the impact of time.

Now is a great time to buy Gold & Silver. I'm holding a CASH equivalent (BEAR) in my portfolio that I can use to buy more ASX Gold Miners, or more Physical Silver when the time is right. Right now I'm willing to wait. There may be a true spike in the value of the USD, that will crush the commodities prices and the ASX will drop (BEAR goes up), then as the USD hit's it's blow off top, and commodities (Oil, Iron, Coal, Nickle, etc) are in the toilet - and Gold and Silver dragged/pushed down with them. will be the time to buy with both hands. If there is no silver to buy at that time, I will buy Australian miners.

Personally I think that will happen this year.

However with the AUD dropping in value vs the USD, the impact of this Gold/Silver price drop is muted on the Australian miners.

The ones that I hold have all had strong recoveries since December 2014, so currently less opportunity to buy more at a bargain.

The US miners are another story all together. Tied to the USD, they are being crushed on a wheel of pain. In terms of Gold sector impacts, this Gold price is having variable impacts on miners around the world depending on the strength of the local currency.

G-Rod
Jul 17, 2015 - 6:33pm

Chinese Gold Holdings - Remember that

The PBoC does not buy it's gold from the SGE.

All the SGE Gold (approx 2000 tonnes per year) is going into private hands in China.

I personally think that the PBoC has much more gold then they report, and that it makes sense for them to make reports in small incremental amounts rather than in a single big hit.

If I am right, then we will see more reports like this one over this year where they steadily increase the numbers so as not to shock the market, as they prepare to get a seat at the IMF SDR table.

(Noting that their long term strategy would be co-option of the IMF and/or it's replacement with a BRICS institution parallel to the AIIB)

Right now they want a low price to accumulate more, and they have no benefit in seeing the price higher. A high price will come later, when the west has no more readily available gold to ship, and the USD is tumbling in price.

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