A2A with "SRSrocco" Steve St. Angelo

121

A tremendous and timely A2A today with Steve St. Angelo, better known as SRSrocco. As an independent energy, metals and mining analyst, Steve brought a lot of wisdom and knowledge to the call. Please be sure to give it a listen.

Over the course of this 58-minute presentation, Steve addresses a number of topics, including:

In the end, I felt like this had been a really good call and an excellent use of time. Please give a listen. I'm confident you'll feel the same.

TF

Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
78%
NO
22%
Total votes: 144

  121 Comments

Ruislip Ranger · Jul 17, 2015 - 2:34am

Superb Interview

One of the best I've heard on here since becoming a subscriber to TFMR. I have been feeling really down about holding the miners off late but that interview has got me all fired up again. I don't doubt the knowledge of other commentators such as Willie , Hoffman, McGuire et al but understanding the level of analysis SRS undertakes specifically for the Silver market in much the same way way Koos does for Gold is extremely reassuring. Sometimes I have a tendency to focus on the geopolitical situation as its off great interest to me a little too much which following the Greek Bailout has culminated in a great degree of persimmon. I've specifically structured my portfolio to contain a heavy weighting of primary silver producers based on previous SRS commentaries I've heard and it's nice to be reminded why. Might even pick up some silver phizzy today despite the VAT!

boomstick · Jul 17, 2015 - 6:43am
Ruislip Ranger boomstick · Jul 17, 2015 - 7:42am

Re: China gold holdings updated

What's the point in China announcing there Gold Reserves to a level which will cause a spike the PM price when they can buy it at these low prices...likely they have a role in the current smash down in prices.

Question is how long will it take for China to revise this figure again?

nadgeskaul · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:08am

Re: China

They'll probably update periodically prior to the IMF meeting at which it'll be decided whether or not to include them in the SDR. They don't want to create waves, so small, quiet noted increases plays to the Chinese norm. Regarding the insane OI. I believe there is something far more significant going on with this. #reset JP Morgan is short, citi is long. A reset would save citigroup (a co-fed member bank) and Morgan is long physical to offset the derivatives short. This is the banks showing their cards as the game has just ended. I believe a reset is imminent. All of this happens to coincide the same year China announces increased holdings for the first time in 6 years? Things that make you go, "Hmmmm?"

Chuck Diesel · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:27am

I'm gonna puke

So I open up Yahoo Finance this morning to check the markets and here's the lead story. It's the picture that makes me want to vomit

StevenBHorse · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:32am

Citi long JPM short

I had it figured the other way around. Citi has been a heaping pile of shit for so long. I figured JPM was sticking Citi with the shorts, so that they would be bailed out (again) in the future. Morgan would profit both on their paper and their physical. That would be maximum profit extraction.

I think your theory is just as valid though. If this is the big one, then the main goal could be survival and not just profit.

Chuck Diesel · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:36am
G-Rod · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:43am

Beat me to it Chuck

Just beginning to wonder if paper will indeed go to zero.

Bring it on I say.

BTW Steven - Your one fine looking Horse!

G-Rod · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:45am

What's the bet that

China up their gold reserves by 600 tonnes in August too?

And September, October, etc...

The contrarian libertarian · Jul 17, 2015 - 8:56am

Sometimes...

Sometimes you have to go through hell, to get to heaven. Nothing represents that better than a precious metals buyer/stacker/investor! 

Chuck Diesel · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:11am

Retail silver prices are actually going up

I've been watching prices on comparesilverprices.com for the last few weeks. Each day, retail prices continue to creep up, even with today's smash. Premiums are now 24% minimum on ASEs and if you buy on ebay you're going to pay almost a 50% premium

SS121 · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:13am

fake silver chart dropping.. what to watch for

2 things . . .

  1. public phyzz demand increase
  2. retailer tightening (premiums/availability)

threshold reaction (#SCDDIT) last seen in mid 14s (about 10 days ago? ...don't feel like looking it up)

too far below threshold and chart loses phyzz price control relevancy (dies)

all hidden in plain sight

"system is real" worldview crowd o b l i v i o u s

rdwong · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:16am

China's gold reserves

Not that I believe tht official announcement, but am I the only on who see's this?

Almost 4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves

57% increase in 1 month, June 2015(ZH say's not possible, but what if that's the reason for the increase in derivatives by JPM and C)

Admission that gold is extremely important strategically.

Just speculating, but how can this not be bullish for the support of bullion?

SS121 · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:22am

rdwong re: gold question

Just speculating, but how can this not be bullish for the support of bullion?

If by bullish support you mean higher chart prices... it's because, in the far away land of reality, there is no connection between the pm charts and all the silly stories and reports you read in the media.

AIJ · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:24am

One of Cliff High's comments in his latest ALTA report

was a bifurcation of the silver price between physical and Paper increasing.

Bottom Line, suppliers / middle-men start refusing to sell at spot.

If you owned the silver, would you sell at spot when the price is declining, the demand is increasing and supply was questionable?

rdwong SS121 · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:29am

SS121

No, not talking about chart prices, but just how bullish those figures are for long term fundamental support for Bullion price in general. I completely understand the BS going on in the paper market, but if China hasn't already accumulated, the paper game is over with that kind of firepower. 

J.P. Cubish · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:32am

Capitulation

From the comments lately, more market participants are giving up on the metals.

This mornings drop could initiate a true capitulative phase.

Rationalize your capitulation here....

AIJ · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:40am

Capitulate

How can you have capitulation when nobody is bullish?

Except for, India, China, Russia, Turkey, Singapore etc.......

SS121 · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:41am

rd

just waking up here, still haven't had breakfast, but...

No, not talking about chart prices, but just how bullish those figures are for long term fundamental support for Bullion price in general. 

aren't chart prices and bullion prices the same thing?

I completely understand the BS going on in the paper market, but if China hasn't already accumulated, the paper game is over with that kind of firepower.

my point, with which you might not agree, is that THERE IS NO PAPER MARKET. China/PBOC Accumulation, Cartels, Squeezes, Manipulation, CoT Reports etc etc. is all a bunch of nonsense spewed out to make the chart prices appear to be the results of "markets" and "trading". ...they are not.

2 eggs and toast, here i come!

jezfry · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:43am

China's gold holding

The big figure we were lead to expect has not materialised and prices drop. We are running out of catalysts! 

-SilverIsMoney- · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:47am

I tried to warn you guys...

This has so far played out exactly how I predicted (Euro collapse surges USD and kills Gold). We will not see total capitulation until we've gotten into the 900s and retraced 50% from the top. I've sat here for 10months saying this and have advocated physical cash and my plan remains unchanged. Everything will be on sale this fall and the dollar will top - that will be the time to buy everything you can at fire sale prices, gold or otherwise.

Until then accept that the bottom is close in terms of time. We've waited through years of this shit only a few more months now before the wave flips back.

CPE · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:47am

Another Time on Capitulation

I've posted at least 10 times on capitulation over the last few months/years.

I've never had anyone debate me on my thoughts.

If you disagree with my assessment then please show me the error of my ways. I'll try this again.

Capitulation is an event when investors throw up their hands in an emotional "get me out no matter what!" moment and hit any bid they can find in a normal market. This results in the last of the week hands selling what is then undervalued to stronger hands and due to limited supply the price of whatever security begins to rise marking a long term bottom.

IN THE METALS "MARKET", capitulation is a unicorn. Supply and Demand have NOTHING to do with this paper price. When the paper markets have been rejected utterly then we will see the true prices for Au and Ag. It can be argued that supply/demand are not the primary drivers of high stock-to-flow elements, but that's aside from my main point: because actual Au and Ag are the tiny equity positions in a 112+ to 1 paper to equity fractional reserve gold and silver "market" any selling by weak hands (like in the paragraph above) has the opposite effect vs a normal capitulation event. So let's say this is a capitulation moment, is that going to end the paper alchemy? Nope, because the manipulative monkeys will gladly scoop of any Au and Ag offered by weak hands to then lever 112 times over in paper form.

So last time I'll post this, capitulation in paper metal markets extends, not ends, the game.

If I'm wrong, show me. If I'm right then can we look for something else besides "capitulation" every time paper gold gets dumped?

/rantoff

goldcom · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:56am

The Chart Owners

The chart owners are having a field day with the charts this morning of the China announcement. I would have never guessed China would release this low of number, whether it is true or not does not matter to the charts right now. All of the speculation the past years is that the number should have been much higher so I can only see this announcement as a means to push price lower so they can buy more. WTF, personally I think the numbers are bogus but what do I know.

In an interview a while back Jim Willie was discussing the use of gold as a trade settlement and that they would acquire gold for their trading partners at a good price. Perhaps this could this be what is going on, and if it is, how long will that take? Not a good day for PM believers.

This may very well create the washout bottom Rick Rule has talked about where a good number of people will finally throw in the towel. I'm a contrarian to a fault so I gotta see how this plays out. This bottoming process just got much uglier.

SRSrocco · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:57am

REWARDS COME TO THOSE WHO ARE PATIENT

I wanted to thank Turd for the interview and I appreciate the comments by the members. I no longer care about the paper price of gold and silver. While I imagine precious metals investors are becoming increasingly frustrated about these lower prices.... there really aren't better STORES OF WEALTH to hold onto than gold and silver.

The Fed & Central Banks are throwing everything into the POT to keep the system from imploding. However, this is not a long term viable solution. As I mentioned in the interview, U.S. Shale oil production peaked in March, 2015:

EIA August Forecasts for Top 2 Shale Fields

BAKKEN March 2015 = 1.33 mbd

BAKKEN August 2015 = 1.18 mbd

EAGLE FORD March 2015 = 1.73 mbd

EAGLE FORD August 2015 = 1.53 mbd

By 2020, U.S. oil production will likely be down 33+%, and by 2025, 60-80%. The Fed will no longer be able to prop up the system with paper by 2020.

steve

silverwhere · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:58am

WTF Eric?

Eric King: what happened to your KWN predictions?

is it 10,000 T or is it 30,000 T or is it 50,000 T

Many bet their precious farms on ya dude.............

StevenBHorse · Jul 17, 2015 - 9:59am

If you bet the farm

On Eric King, you are a fucking idiot.

pforth · Jul 17, 2015 - 10:00am

@CPE

I agree. Capitulation doesn't matter. What us little guys think-- hugely bearish or hugely bullish-- does not matter since we don't drive the market, the manipulators do.

Gamble · Jul 17, 2015 - 10:03am

2020

Gamble gamble 

that's 5 years of pain!

nadgeskaul · Jul 17, 2015 - 10:04am

Holy S**T

Hui 130.

Oh my goodness. No amount of alcohol or drugs on Earth can alleviate this pain.

Holy Lord.

Thank goodness for JDST or I'd have a noose around my neck.

silverwhere · Jul 17, 2015 - 10:04am

ease up stud

ease up on KWN "listeners" stud

some are horses most are sheep

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