A2A with "SRSrocco" Steve St. Angelo

121

A tremendous and timely A2A today with Steve St. Angelo, better known as SRSrocco. As an independent energy, metals and mining analyst, Steve brought a lot of wisdom and knowledge to the call. Please be sure to give it a listen.

Over the course of this 58-minute presentation, Steve addresses a number of topics, including:

In the end, I felt like this had been a really good call and an excellent use of time. Please give a listen. I'm confident you'll feel the same.

TF

  121 Comments

lakedweller2
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:17pm

2,3or 4

Maybe

Jul 16, 2015 - 4:17pm

First!

Boom, baby. Momentum shifted.

eurobuddha
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:18pm

4

...

McFly
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:19pm

Third!

Edit: Brilliant & witty comment to be added later.

heathbr
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:22pm

Treading water

We live to see another day! (above $15)

SS121
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:25pm

unedited srs notes

a2a srsrocco

sound check good good
tf-setup admin info,
record on
tf-intro to srsrocco, was indepedant analyst, steve st angelo srsroccoreport.com
srs- good to be hear, been online with tf for years, things are picking up, great time to chat
tf-paper prices controlled by algo machines have no connection to fundamentals, great time to have you on. your site should be in everybody's fav links.. u.s. gold exports article new on site. the silver chart report,
srs- yes, 58 charts in report, and updates. report in 5 sections, the market from a birds eye view that many miss. energy imports production demand, i see many striking connections that others miss. one chart,... what is relation between oil and silver from 1900 to now. it shows why silver has reacted a certain way. after nixon dropped gold and u.s. oil peaked- silver and gold went off chart. lot of good info in those charts.
tf- you charge for that, how much is it??
srs- go to page, see ad. it's 25 bucks it leads to next reports on silver chart. the sugar daddy of the silver market was u.s. gov.
tf- 25 bucks is nothing, anybody wants to have something to show people or advise people, report is tremendous. back to demand in the 60's. usg met demand with stockpiles...
srs- according to ust there are millions of ounces somewhere. chart no. 19 is net gov sales, china russia india was supplementing sales. in 2003 88 million ounces. In the report i show the powerful reason why china stopped selling. going forward this adds more stress . unreported stocks have been drained
tf- silver investment demand... back to silver and crude. crude oil and energy is biggest input to most manufacturing. from that standpoint silver and crude go together. now hft algos run everything. price of crude and euro with dollar go one-to-one. crude goes up and down via euro. currently down. you logo has eroi, explain in english why that is basis of what you do
srs- sure, eroi is energy return on invested or on "energy invested", charles coined term, a student of his took over. many phd. students look at eroi. eroi is the key to living, a person or a company or the roman empire. roman empire fell due to eroi. they go so big they couldn't get more energy. in the 70s eroi was 30 to 1, now at eagle fort its 5 to 1. many oil companies are losing money. chevron and tennico etcc are majors and they are losing money. we've seen peak production in top fields. we'll go down from here. eroi is destroying system from within. why i'm big proponent of silver and gold.
tf- before listener questions... most recent reports, updating trend you've been following. u.s. is net importer of phyzz silver.
srs- u.s. has been big silver importer for a while. india varies, they change due to investment on bar demand. u.s. silver imports peaked in 2011. industrial consumption continues to fall. investment demand will drive price, esp when it moves exponentially. now down from 11, but little demand increase eagles in first quarter, i think speculation that jpm is buying eagles is incorrect. insiders say big buyers are buying silver.. good sign.
tf- yes, investment demand is critical. china is keeping metal at home for solar panels and such
srs- due to peak oil it will be less of a factor solar makers crashing. large scale electricity it doesn't work. industrial will go down, investment demand will go up.
tf- will link to that report as well. yesterday's trend- u.s. gold export data. west to east, empty vaults, swiss refineries, and u.s. is exporting gold. your latest report, what's going on?
srs- that's the trillion dollar question. mine supply was big in 90s, now it's down from 14. import charts show deficit. there is more investment demand we don't know about. the wgc data people fudge numbers, but they don't include private mmints, jsut official stuff. so deficit is maybe higher. probly coming from unallocated sources, maybe ny fed. ny fed is not supposed to include data but sometimes it goes into open market and gets included in data. so... ny fed or allocated/unallocated sources.
tf- so it goes into market and then leaves u.s.
srs- we're already at 24 ton deficit. gold eagle sales jumped 35,000 ounces recently. picking up
tf- nemesis line shows bullion banks controlling price and sentiment.
srs- it seems like lower price for silver leads to higher demand. for some reason when prices fall demand is up. gold buying spikes at times, but falling gold prices sees falling demand. silver drops increase buying, but not gold. (!!!!)
?matt- retail shortages in silver, at what price do you see producers shutdown?
srs- good question... some lose money and just issue more shares. the biggest mines that are high cost mines, they might have to cut back, they're losing money now. medium and low cost mines are ok, won't be an impact. peru is down 15 percent in one month. australia silver production is down 31 percent in first quarter. overall production is down maybe 5 percent, don't look for it to fall. base metal mining will fall first. stay in low cost producers
?unk- what about current price at 15, any forecast?
srs- not my thing, but i've written about a silver spike but it didn't happen. because it can't. a big spike and the system is gone in days/weeks. so it can't, it's a disservice to make price forecasts. fundamentals are positive. prices now are best deal ever, energy will force situation. don't hold real estate.
tf- i was projecting a squeeze and had to eat crow
srs- it's all disconnected now, how long can this go on. this will unfold so fast and surprise many. newbs are waking up but they are cautious, time comes when it won't be available
?modias- dow/gold dow/silver ratios, what up?
srs- in the past that might have been looked at, but now eroi is so low that metals should be higher. we can't maintain things now just to run system. solar et al don't get it done. the dow stuff no longer matters.
?russell- eroi, is it energy return on energy invested.
srs- yes and no. everything is energy. even in mining. labor is energy. i believe 95 percent of cost of gold is energy. eroi is the key that is destroying everything. banks are propping, but most are invested in system. system investments will turn to dust.
tf- exp debt growth leads to crumbling, is that similar?
srs- yes, exactly. in 2005 prod peaked. stuff now is short term sources. gulf wells are declining. can't sustain society. peaked in 05. must have energy for gdp growth so we printed money, illusion of growth. by '20 dom oil prod down 30 percent. can't maintain illusion without energy.
tf- interesting. many haven't heard such a perspective.
??Jill- fair to view down paper price as reduced paper claims? disparity similar to marginal utility concept? . . .
srs- yes, zh shows citigroup numbers skyrocketing. paper contracts to suppress are just one mechanism, but funneling of west funds into paper have been growing. ..destroyed value of commodities, prevents hard investments in mines and such. can't liquidate paper stuff. retirements are limited, not enough energy to pay back all that crap. metals are undervalued. on reset base metals aren't good either. primary miners and gold and silver will do well.
tf- one more thing, compliment
michael- testimonial- reading steve's report has been extrememly helpful to share with family! kudos!
srs- thank you. i think silver is most undervalued asset. indian just lowered tariff on ag/au.
tf- machines drive to 15, maybe down to 12, but never been more valuable time for final four!!!
srs- ok
ff1- should greece punt euro for silver/gold backed?
srs- yes, and deal with russia, get help. tf- absolutely srs-and thanks for the cohen bachelor shows, much enjoyed.
ff2- everr written cftc
srs- no, it's a waste of time tf- yep, keith is a ceo of big miner, he writes'em they ignore him srs- keith is cool, big silver miners should do well going forward.
ff3- how much gold in ft knox,
srs- probably less than many realize and china has most
ff4- what is coming? deflationary spiral? hyperinflation?
srs- scared animal will defend itself. guess hyperinflation. what happens after is key, want to hold metals. economies of scale reversal will be a factor. we'll see it before 2020 imo. tf- kirby says marginal value of last unit produced is value of all produced. applies to dollars. phyzz stores metal thru to next paradigm.
srs- energy prices have been linked to gold/silver prices. this will disconnect due to paper markets and silver moving away from industrial to money/wealth storage. energy assets are paper, phyzz is phyzz. much higher silver prices coming.
tf- thanks ttg, tell us again your links.
srs- srs rocco report, 2-3 per week. big report coming out in days ahead, silver report for 2nd quarter.
tf- link to steve, check it daily
srs- i'm from ny, the old family movies were mafia folks.
close out
bye bye
record off
tf- that's it, will post in hours, make it public tomorrow.
site industry discussion
end

most excellent a2a, thanks gents

Mr. Fix
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:38pm

I've been looking forward to this one....

Nobody does better analysis than a fellow Turdite.

Jul 16, 2015 - 4:39pm

Quick OI update

Beginning to feel as though the HUGE spike in silver OI from what was normally 130,000-140,000 to over 200,000 just at few weeks ago may, in fact, be related to the extraordinary and exponential rise in overall commodity derivatives as shown in that OCC report.

Why?

Because suddenly gold open interest is surging, too.

Yesterday, on a -$6 day, total Comex gold OI surged another 8,000 contracts (2%) to 470,720. This is the highest total for all of 2015 and it comes as gold makes a 2015 closing low. Additionally, this is the highest Comex gold OI since 479,373 on November 27, 2012! Price that day was $1740.

Combine this with the still extraordinarily high silver OI (up 1,200 yesterday to near 187,000) and it's almost impossible to conclude that this isn't all related to the HUGE derivative increases from JPM and Citi...even though the data from the OCC was only through Q1.

Regardless, this almost HAS TO BE considered bullish. Why? Last Tuesday the 7th, gold and silver were both smashed. They rebounded a little the next day on apparent short-covering and register-ringing. Over the next five trading sessions, up to and including yesterday, gold fell each day for a total of $16 or a little more than 1%. Over the same five days, total Comex gold open interest rose by over 17,000 contracts or 4%. Just Tuesday and Wednesday of this week alone, gold price fell by $8 while OI surged nearly 16,000 contracts. Incredible!

Any way you slice it, this has to be a parade of momo-chasing, managed money and HFT algo shorts. Will they profit by being short or will they be squeezed by the Gold Cartel Banks that are supplying all of this fresh paper? Well, let me ask you this? What always happens when The Banks create fresh paper to sell to the Spec longs that are chasing rallies?

Just. Must. Stay. Patient.

Sir Peter Latterman Fortenton
Jul 16, 2015 - 4:50pm

This type of price action

Makes me want to go take a dump

Jul 16, 2015 - 4:55pm

fwiw

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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