A2A with Bill Holter

80

Just a great call earlier today illustrating why we host these webinars in the first place. Bill spent nearly an hour answering a wide array of questions from a large group of listeners. Great stuff and you should definitely take the time to listen yourself.

Over the course of the call, Bill addresses topics such as:

  • The Greek situation
  • The OCC report last week showing the exponential increase in commodity derivatives
  • Yesterday's internet and system "glitches"
  • How to protect yourself against confiscation and/or confiscatory taxes
  • And much, much more

Again, this is a lenghthy call so break it up into separate sittings if you need to. Just be sure to take the time to give this a thorough listen. You won't be disappointed.

TF

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AIJ
Jul 9, 2015 - 9:37pm
Maestroboomstick
Jul 9, 2015 - 8:55pm

Here ya go!

Will definately throw more than rotten tomatoes.

Where I come from, when you have no hope of paying your debt, you miss multiple payments, your banks are closed, and a governing troika dictates without "lube".....I'd call that bankrupt. Anything else concocted in the fantasy make believe world of CDS' is just total bs.

How the swap market can even exist when the parties issuing the insurance have full control of determining whether a default even occurs is beyond me.

...sort of like having my house burn down, and the insurance company telling me that it didn't!...carry on as usual....

The very "Heart of Darkness" if you ask me.

MJP0620
Jul 9, 2015 - 8:37pm

I have a question I'd like to

I have a question I'd like to ask the board: If JP Morgan is the custodian of the SLV, and JPM has been building a large physical position, then SLV should remain solvent when silver reverses - even if the COMEX defaults, correct?

(Just want to know, as I've been considering buying some long-term SLV calls)

TIA

Fred Hayek
Jul 9, 2015 - 7:27pm

@boomstick. Maybe not

Bill was responding to my question. I asked if it will push interest rates on sovereign debt higher if those who bought derivatives to protect themselves against the default of their (foolishly purchased) greek bonds don't get paid.

I think you've got probably one of two possibilities both of which end the same way.

1) Buyers of CDS find they're not protected because the terms of the contract are carefully and narrowly written, as you seem to describe, and realize that they can't protect themselves from the risks of sovereign bond purchases as they thought they could. So, they stay away from that market unless interest rates go much higher to address the inherent risk.

or

2) Buyers of CDS find that they're not protected because the game is rigged to avoid payouts and they realize that they can't protect themselves from the risks of sovereign bond purchase as they thought they could. So, they stay away from that market unless interest rates go much higher to address the inherent risk.

Of course, there's technically the possibility of billions of dollars being paid out.

Fred Hayek
Jul 9, 2015 - 7:17pm

GLD's last 700 are like the national socialists' first 500

I remember watching a documentary on the rise of the national socialists in Germany. It mentioned that they actually handed out party membership cards in the 1920's. To make it seem like there were more of them than there actually were, every party member had a number on his card. The numbers started with 500 instead of with 1.

Oh, and the people running and protecting the GLD seem to be fascists, too. The parallels are eeeeeeeerie!

boomstick
Jul 9, 2015 - 6:42pm

CDS

I have to throw the flag here.

Bill talked a lot about credit default swaps, and doesn't actually know what he's talking about. I have been in the credit default swap market for over a decade. [ducks to avoid rotten vegetables and bullets]

The very term "default" spans a wide range of issues, some major and some very technical and easily cured. To make the CDS contract simple, specific credit events were defined in a way that was meant to be simple and clear, but also representative of what is actually occurring: "Bankruptcy" (which includes such things as receivership, and declaration of insufficient capital by an insurance company's regulator); "Failure to Pay", which has certain grace period definitions and declarations; "Restructuring", which has been a problem ever since and is no longer the 'standard' contract in the US; "Repudiation", "Moratorium", etc.

The "default or not" question is governed by (currently) the 2014 ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions, and the terms of the contracts. The CDS contracts have gone through evolution over the last 15 years, always due to issues that have arisen in the actual resolution of real-life situations. The most recent revision (the prior major set of definitions was 2003, with some additional changes in 2009) was primarily due to the emergence of "good-bank/bad-bank" which led to CDS behaving differently from how the bonds behaved. There are multiple examples of situations where CDS just hasn't imagined a particular situation (fun fact: US Treasury notes do *not* have a bond indenture).

The determination of whether a credit event has occurred, in the context of the definitions, is controlled by regional "determinations committees", each of which comprises 10 dealers and 5 buy-side firms (all of whom must be major CDS market participants). Anyone may submit a request for the DC to determine whether a "credit event" has occurred. If the vote is 15-0, then the DC ruling is final. If there is any dissent, the ruling is reviewed, and possibly reversed, by three outside lawyers.

Bill's castigating the CDS market is as bad as that of Gretchen Morgenson, Louise Story, or the more left-wing of the Tylers.

Marchas45
Jul 9, 2015 - 6:17pm

Posted This On The Other Thread

Concerning the MSN Anchors Video.

Hell I would love hear what are they going to say now after the hacking of The office of the Personnel Management where they stole over 21.5 million social security #'s Yikes!!!! keep Stacking

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/09/hackers-stole-social-security-numbers-from-215-million-govt-admits/

benque
Jul 9, 2015 - 6:15pm

New opportunity for entrepreneurs

Kevlar wig = "head-vest". Banksters and politicos would buy them at any price. Someone oughtta get started on this, before Hugo Boss makes it his first "new" design in the "old" genre, since 1936.

Whitecastle123
Jul 9, 2015 - 6:07pm

Doom on

There you have it, a warning, we told you, we're off the hook. Get some cash, self defense, MREs and stuff it in your boogie bag. Kinda weird but nothing gets aired without script.

StevenBHorse
Jul 9, 2015 - 5:58pm

Sweet

Thanks for posting the video.

I missed the last minute of the clip, because I ran to my computer to post what I had just seen.

I felt the overwhelming urge to alert the watchtower to what I was watching.

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