TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Jan 31, 2015 - 10:22am

Russia's Gazprom profits plunge 61%, hit by Ukraine row

Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of Gazprom management committee delivering a speech during a gas conference in Vienna Jan. 28. REUTERS Photo

Russia's gas giant Gazprom on Jan. 29 said its third quarter profits plunged 61 percent as supplies were suspended to Ukraine, one of its main customers.

The group's profits between July and September reached 105.7 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) but revenues in that quarter were down 6 percent year-on-year to 1.13 trillion rubles ($16.5 billion). In the first nine months of 2014, Gazprom's net profits fell by 35 percent to 556.2 billion rubles ($8.14 billion). Its revenues reached 4 trillion rubles ($58 billion), up 6 percent from the same period a year ago.

Gas sales fell 2 percent year-on-year between January and September to 2.084 trillion rubles ($30.5 billion), with those to Europe remaining fairly stable.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:26am

Greek FM wants to attract new foreign investment

ATHENS: Greece will look after investors' interests and wants to bring in new foreign investment, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis told a newspaper on Saturday after a turbulent week in which the new government halted a series of privatisations.

"Our commitment to investors who have invested in the country's productive network will remain untouched and not only that, but we also aim to attract new, immediate investment from abroad through transparent procedures which will safeguard our mutual interests," he told the weekly Agora newspaper.

Doubts about foreign investment in Greece were fuelled by the new leftwing government's decision to halt privatisation projects including the sale of the country's biggest port and to review its options on a Canadian-run goldmine, one of Greece's biggest foreign investments.

He said Greece would continue to issue new short-term T-Bills while talks continue, even though Athens has already reached a 15 billion euro issuance limit agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund "troika".

Dr. P. Metals
Jan 31, 2015 - 10:28am

So, Greece folds already?

i'm confused. Seems all like more theatre to me, not unexpected if so. I'll believe things will change now when they collapse I guess...that's the only proof we can be sure of. Sad.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:29am

China's social security fund yield outpaces GDP growth

BEIJING, Jan. 31 (Xinhua) -- China's economy slowed to a 24-year low in 2014, but this was not the case for the country's social insurance fund, new official data showed.

The assets of the Social Security Fund (SSF) were valued at 1.24 trillion yuan (around 200 billion U.S. dollars) last year, increasing 11.43 percent year on year, faster than the GDP growth, an official with the national council for the SSF said Friday during the China Wealth Management 50 Forum.

Wang Zhongmin, vice president of the council, said the fund's investment in stocks surpassed the market average. Private equity and direct investment, representing only a small proportion, also brought yearly yields of more than 10 percent. The fund's yearly ratio of return averaged 8.5 percent over the past 14 years, data showed.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:31am

Panasonic withdraws from TV production in China

TOKYO: Panasonic Corp has stopped making TVs in China and plans to liquidate its joint venture in Shandong, a company source said on Saturday, the latest in a string of Japanese electronics companies exiting overseas TV markets amid strong pricing pressure.

The Nikkei earlier reported that Panasonic would withdraw from TV production in China and Mexico. The report said the company was expected to sell the Mexican plant, which has produced about 500,000 units a year, most of which were shipped to the United States.

A fierce price war has made the global TV market unprofitable for many Japanese electronics makers. Panasonic said in late October it was transferring its unprofitable Sanyo television unit in the U.S., which supplies sets to Wal-Mart Stores, to Funai Electric in return for royalties.

Toshiba Corp said on Thursday that it would stop making and selling TVs in North America and was considering similar exits from other countries.

Sharp Corp has licensed its TV brand in Europe to Universal Media Corp Slovakia as part of an effort to trim costs and pull back from loss-making operations. Sony Corp has spun off its struggling TV business into a separate entity, although CEO Kazuo Hirai has said the company does not plan to sell or shut down the unit.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:32am

Outages cut Norway’s gas output by 55 mcm/day on Saturday

OSLO: Natural gas output from Western Europe's top gas supplier, Norway, is expected to be cut by 55 million cubic metres (mcm) per day on Saturday, less than the previous day, data from gas system operator Gassco showed.

Norway's natural gas production capacity was cut by a combined 65 mcm/day on Friday compared to the country's total capacity of around 350 mcm/day. Real-time pipeline gas flows from Norway to Europe were running at a rate of 303 mcm/day by 0840 GMT on Saturday. Gassco's data showed.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:42am

Huge Madrid march in support of anti-austerity party

Tens of thousands of people have marched in Madrid in support for anti-austerity party Podemos, whose surging popularity and policies have drawn comparisons with Greece's new Syriza rulers.

On Saturday, protesters chanted "Yes we can!" as they made their way from Madrid city hall to the central Puerta del Sol square. Podemos and its anti-austerity message have been surging in polls ahead of local, regional and national elections this year. Podemos ("We Can") was formed just a year ago, but produced a major shock by winning five seats in elections for the European Parliament in May. "People are fed up with the political class," said Antonia Fernandez, a 69-year-old pensioner from Madrid who had come to the demonstration with her family.

Like Syriza, Podemos has found popular support by targeting corruption and rejecting austerity programmes aimed at lifting the countries out of deep economic crisis. Spain is emerging from a seven-year economic slump as one of the euro zone's fastest growing countries, but the exit from recession has yet to ease the hardship for thousands of households, in a country where nearly one in four of the workforce is out of a job.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:46am

China admits mistrust about mega Silk Road project

BEIJING: Vigorously pushing its mega New Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road plans over which India has reservations, China admitted "mistrust" among other countries over its "strategic motivations" and sought to ally concerns of "regional hegemony".

Refuting comparisons between Silk Road plans for which President Xi Jinping has allocated USD 40 billion and that of the US' post-Second World War Marshall Plan aimed at advancing Washington's influence, state-run Xinhua news agency said the "One Belt and One Road" was not aimed at furthering China's "regional hegemony". "Nevertheless, there remains mistrust in China's strategic motivation behind the Silk Road proposals. It is not surprising, as these are novel initiatives, especially to major powers," it said. The Silk Road involving a maze of roads including the ancient Silk route connecting China with Europe through Central Asia, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor connecting China and Pakistan through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) connecting China with different ports evoked mixed response.

While India is taking part in the discussions of the BCIM it has not reacted to the MSR amid apprehensions that it was aimed enhancing China's role in India's backyard, the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka was the first to approve the project under the previous pro-China Mahinda Rajapaksa government last year but the new government said it is reviewing the China funded USD 1.5 billion Colombo Port City project which if not approved or downsized could cause a setback to MSR as it was regarded as a main centre for the Indian Ocean region.

"Unlike the Marshall Plan, no political conditions have been imposed on participants in the Silk Road frameworks. China has always advocated that countries should respect each other's rights to independently choose their own social system and development path," the Xinhua article said. "There is no guarantee that the modern Silk Road will be an easy success, but time will prove that it is much more than the Marshall Plan and that China's gain is not others' loss," it said.

Jan 31, 2015 - 10:48am

I thoroughly enjoyed that interview

Both sides brought good points to the table and it was one of the best back and forths I've heard in a long time. Kudos to Craig because I think he's one of the only people who could have handled all that and stood his ground as well as he did. Who else would have put up with that and had such great arguments to counter with?

I think Don saw an opportunity to destroy Craig's credibility because he had no respect for him because he goes by the name Turd Ferguson - that made Don automatically assume he was an easy target. You can tell how much it bugs him because he led off the interview with it.

I don't think retiring the Turd moniker would be the worst idea but that's not our call to make. In this instance it actually worked to Craig's advantage I think.

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:07am

Sarah Palin

I would much rather have had Sarah Palin as President the last 6 years than Buttock Insane Obummer.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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