TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Jan 30, 2015 - 9:40pm


Don was/is a day/swing trader, as such these people are only concerned with immediate gains. Therefore you cant debate or argue about long term investments and fundamental analysis with someone stuck in that mentality. They are the absolute definition of normalcy bias.

Jan 30, 2015 - 9:38pm

No one knows for sure..

How many quadrillions of dollars in derivatives are flashing around globally from screen to screen every moment? No one knows for sure. How many hundreds of billions, possibly trillions, were lost in the bail out of the big banksters in 2008? No one knows for sure. What are the consequences of complete global financial collapse? No one knows for sure. By comparison, do the commercial banks, or any other entities who are short a few billion bucks in gold and silver on the Comex or anywhere they give a rat's ass if they lose a few billion? For these gangsters it's a rounding error!! Hell, they'll probably end up getting huge bonuses!!

Most of us here know the stats provided by all governments on unemployment, CPI, inflation etc., etc, are all BS. That being the case,are we to believe any of the numbers on COT, short and long position positions by the criminals who are manipulating the markets? I don't. You are correct Turd. In my opinion, these psychopaths will increase their shorts with no concern for any consequences because they know there will be none if they screw up....They'll run this until the wheels fall off...

As some may know, I've been in the precious metals market for over 40 years and I've never seen such volatility in the precious metals or their stocks as has been the case the past few years. Recently, I've significantly increased my holdings in Gold and Silver Maples as well as my positions in certain gold and silver stocks. There are, in my opinion, few other places to seek safety.

Like many others, I sense something very nasty is soon to occur.

Jan 30, 2015 - 9:31pm

Yo! 4oz

We got this!! Pats got no air game. Quick 3 yards passes will not help! Running game will be contained! Pats are a more rounded team than Broncos and more recent experience but this is Seattle, we do things differently. See socks guy in sandals.

Go Hawks!!!!

Fred Hayek
Jan 30, 2015 - 9:31pm

Amen, Marchas. What a jerk.

I checked out after 20 minutes. His whole game was to attack vaguely represented positions he says that other people in the precious metals advocacy community have held and try to force Turd to defend them.

There was a taped debate of sorts between this weasel Don Harrold and Bix Weir a year or two ago and it went along similarly pointless lines.

Paradoxically, Mr. Harrold wants to reproach any precious metals enthusiast for ever making an overly optimistic prediction because, Mr. Harrold says, they have no idea what's going to happen. And yet, Mr. Harrold is particularly bitter in his criticism of predictions around the recent silver high in May 2011 and the fact that many stackers bought silver at that time at a relatively high price. Yet, only in hindsight was it perhaps ill advised because, unless you knew what was going to happen, you didn't know whether things weren't going to take off from there and you'd never see silver as cheap as 40-something dollars an ounce again. He wants to have it both ways. No one else should pretend to have any idea what's going to happen but he can use the advantage of hindsight and speak freely as though at that time he knew what would go down. Argumentative jerk.

4 oz
Jan 30, 2015 - 9:25pm

So it wasn't "Raw Dog"?

Good. That makes me feel better.

That Raw Dog guy is a real douchebag.

4 oz
Jan 30, 2015 - 9:14pm



Don Harold is calling himself that these days....

Have never paid any attention to him...not when it was The Day Trade show either...

Rawdog is a whole 'nother guy who can be perceptive in his own right, but is also really just a clown... RawDaog is trashing Silver again too.

(SuperBowl---have my fingers crossed.)

Dr. P. Metals
Jan 30, 2015 - 9:12pm


well put. Let's hope.

Steve S
Jan 30, 2015 - 9:09pm

the worst trader ever

I must be the worst trader ever. I study charts. I read hundreds of articles. I read economics books by the Austrians. Yet for over 3 years I've done nothing but lose money. When we get a little run up I never take anything off the table to reinvest after the raid I know is coming. I know all the signs. The scary COTs, the option expiration takedowns , the fed meeting slams and the fraudulent labor report drive by shootings.

The reason I can't sell after a rise is that I know the markets are a complete fraud. Massive increase in debt worldwide that can never be repaid continues to make real money gold and silver ever more valuable. Leveraging paper gold by at least 100 times for every ounce of physical makes gold ever more valuable.

The unpayable debt continues to weigh down the economy and cause wave after wave of deflation. The response is to just print money out of thin air called QE. This increases the true value of gold and silver. Gold and silver have always been manipulated. Its not surprising that the owners of the fiat printing press do what they can to hold down the price of gold and silver.

I strongly believe that markets are much more powerful than the manipulators. It is astonishing to me how successful they have been since 2011. The thing is that forcing down the price of gold for so long has consequences. Powerful consequences. We are beginning to see the signs that their rig is failing. They will not be able to control these markets much longer.

The large value buyers are on to their tricks they put stink bids in for large amounts of physical. The market rises to avoid the large physical bid underpinning the market. As we start seeing higher highs and higher lows more speculators will front run the stink bids. The sovereigns are getting more determined to get there hands on the shrinking amount of physical gold. The repatriation movement keeps getting stronger. Meanwhile the Chinese and Russians have been very aggressive in buying up huge amounts of physical. As the physical bids move up we will begin to see the shorts getting the hell out of dodge.

The price of gold will rise much faster than most imagine. The consequences for the insane manipulation of the gold and silver markets are rapidly approaching. This is going to be a spectacular bull market. The speed will slowly accelerate. It will leave the doubters in the dust waiting for a pull back.

Its time to be right and sit tight. Make sure to have plenty of popcorn. This show will be something awesome.

Jan 30, 2015 - 8:56pm

The D is for Douche

He does make valid points, but then gets all smug and self-riteous. This guy gets off on trying to make others look bad.

He sounds like Ross from Friends.

Jan 30, 2015 - 8:52pm


Calls him Doubting Don! Lol, worthless.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Forum Discussion

by 11IMIX, Dec 3, 2020 - 7:02pm
by 11IMIX, Dec 3, 2020 - 7:01pm
by SteveW, Dec 3, 2020 - 3:41pm
by Nijle, Dec 3, 2020 - 11:15am