TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Jan 31, 2015 - 1:29am

Checks and Balances

5 to 4 votes against you in the Supreme Court. Very Disturbing. Do you want the Constitution that protects your rights, or are you going to rely on the oligharchs. This is a key consideration.

I know. Who cares....

Let me just throw out this:

Citizens United: makes you dead meat

Glass-Steagall repeal: not going to happen, makes you dead meat

Vote for Hillary: makes you dead meat

Vote for Jeb: makes you dead meat

Vote for Third Party: Where is that state..,well some...dead meat

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:40am


Thanks for the international update!

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:10am

Chinese smartphone makers rise to rival Samsung, Apple

BEIJING, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- China's top smartphone companies challenged Samsung and Apple with surging sales and revenue in 2014, vowing to scramble for a larger share in a global turf war with the top two makers.

As one of the major competitors, telecom behemoth Huawei Technologies reported a 45-percent rise in smartphone shipments in 2014, reaching more than 75 million units. Sales revenue of Huawei's consumer goods branch, which makes mobile phones and other gadgets, increased 30 percent to 12.2 billion U.S. dollars last year. Currently, Huawei is the world's third largest smartphone maker following Samsung and Apple, according to market tracker Gartner. They held a global market share of 5.3 percent, 24.4 percent and 12.7 percent respectively in the third quarter of 2014. Last year, 52 percent of Huawei's smartphone sales revenue came from overseas markets. The tech giant's presence in Africa, Asia and Latin America was rapidly consolidated.

"We will try to rival Samsung and Apple globally in 2015," said Shao Yang, vice president of Huawei Consumer Business Group. He said the company will work to improve its overseas brand reputation. Huawei aims to hike smartphone shipments to 100 million units and sales revenue to 16 billion U.S. dollars in 2015.

Another homegrown smartphone maker Xiaomi said it sold 61.1 million units in 2014, surging 227 percent year on year. Its revenue grew 135 percent to 74.3 billion yuan (about 12 billion U.S. dollars). Xiaomi is now marketing products in six foreign countries and regions. More than one million units have been sold in India, for example, one of the company's most successful markets abroad. "We will enter more overseas markets in 2015 and strive for better performance there," said Xiaomi founder Lei Jun, who is called China's Steve Jobs by fans.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:09am

China to issue commemorative coins marking end of WWII

BERLIN, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- Chinese participants at the 44th World Money Fair unveiled on Friday a plan for issuing commemorative coins to remember the end of World War II.

China is expected to issue a commemorative collection in June to mark the 70th anniversary of the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War and the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, announced a representative of China Gold Coin Incorporation (CGCI) during a project introduction at the fair that takes place in Berlin.

"The collection consists of a 1/4 oz gold coin, a 1 oz silver coin and a 5 oz silver coin," said Cui Li from the marketing department of the CGCI.

The Chinese commemorative collection is part of an international cooperation project proposed by the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC).

A consultant of the CPAFFC told Xinhua that representatives of the mint institutions from China, France, Britain, Australia and Canada agreed in October in Beijing to cooperate to issue commemorative coins with a common theme in a bid to promote peace and friendship.

"With the support and coordination of the French Mint, our proposal has received positive responds. Besides France, Russia, Australia, Canada and Britain, a further 6 countries, including Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Ireland, Italy and Finland, have also decided to join the project," said Zhuge Wenhai from the CPAFFC.

The project is the first of its kind in view of China's leading role and the international cooperation, according to Zhuge. In addition to issuing commemorative coins, participating countries will held united exhibitions in relation with the end of World War II.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:05am

Manila's attempt to poison China-ASEAN ties selfish, futile

BEIJING, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- Only one month after an arbitration farce, the Philippines is putting up another pathetic show in an attempt to lobby international sympathy and support in its territorial spat with China.

In a recent meeting among top diplomats of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario called for "collective and unified" ASEAN stance on the South China Sea dispute, alleging that the bloc's "silence" and "inaction" on the issue would undermine its "principle of centrality".

Throughout its half-century history, ASEAN has never been intended to be a political alliance of any forms. It was the common aspiration for peace and development that has brought the ten Southeast Asian nations together in the first place, despite their highly varied national conditions and sometimes widely disparate positions on regional affairs.

For Southeast Asia, the year of 2015 is of particular significance, as the envisioned ASEAN Economic Community, which will bring the region one step further in its integration process, is set to be finalized. To drive a wedge between ASEAN and China -- its nearest neighbor and partner -- at such a critical time will be extremely unwise and selfish. The past decade has witnessed leapfrog development of China-ASEAN relations. China has emerged as ASEAN's biggest trading partner, and the regional grouping has grown to be China's third-largest trading partner, just after the European Union and the United States.

On the South China Sea issue, Beijing is working with ASEAN on the formulation of a Code of Conduct to ensure regional peace and stability, which serves the interests of all sides. Besides, Manila should be fully aware that acting like a crying baby and begging for compassion from the international community would never help justify its claims in the South China Sea dispute, which should and could be properly handled only by the parties directly concerned. Of course, such a string of aggressive statements and moves made by Manila in the recent year doesn't come out of nowhere, as some U.S. officials have long been sowing the seed of discord to embolden its Asian allies like the Philippines as part of its own strategy to contain China. In a recent interview, a top U.S. navy officer based in Asia extended an uncalled-for welcome to Japanese military extension to the South China Sea as a counterweight to Chinese presence there.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:02am

Major Russian wine and tobacco importer files for bankruptcy

© Sergei Fadeichev/TASS

MOSCOW, January 30. /TASS/. Affiliates of Rusimport, a major Russian wine and tobacco importer, filed bankruptcy petitions to the Moscow Arbitration Court, the company spokesperson said on Friday.

"The complicated situation with importers is related to abrupt drop of ruble rate against dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of 2014. Our regional distributors are working in the ruble zone and currency risks do not affect them," Rusimport’s representative added.

The company is operating with respite and makes payments to suppliers and buyers at the rate on the day of payment, she said. Rusimport currently has to pay at a 77-80 ruble per euro rate for wines and liquors imported last summer at a 47 rubles per euro rate. Banks are raising lending rates at the same time. "The company is unable to compensate its losses by raising prices because products are shipped to large retail chains, where price review can take 1.5-2 and even 3 months," the company spokesperson said.

She said Rusimport’s losses in 4Q 2014 were higher than profit in the several previous years. The company did not stop the import of wines and liquors but cut its volume by almost a half. Sales through distribution channels dropped by 50% year-on-year in January.

TASS reported earlier that another major Russian wine and liquor importer Simple suspended shipment of products for a week in December because of ruble exchange rate fluctuations.

Jan 30, 2015 - 11:59pm

Sberbank lowers limit for drawing cash from ATMs to 50K roubles

MOSCOW, January 30. /TASS/. Russia’s biggest state lender Sberbank will lower limits for drawing cash from ATMs from March 1, the company’s press representative told TASS, adding that the decision was made to adjust this indicator to the market’s average level.

While earlier customers could draw 150,000 roubles ($2,100) a day from the most widely-used cards Visa Classic/MasterCard Standard, now this sum has been reduced threefold to 50,000 roubles ($713).

Also, the limit was changed to 500,000 roubles ($7,100) a month for Momentum and Visa Electron/Maestro cards, to 1.5 million roubles ($21,400) a month for Visa Classic/MasterCard Standard, to 3 million roubles ($42,000) a month for Visa Gold/MasterCard Gold, to 5 million roubles ($71,000) a month for Visa Platinum/MasterCard World Black Edition and to 30 million roubles ($428,000) a month for Infinite/World MasterCard Elite, the bank reported.

Jan 30, 2015 - 11:57pm

Number of workers that may be layed off in Russia rises by over

MOSCOW, January 30. /TASS/. Russian Ministry of Labor and Social Protection does not expect the Russian employers to start mass layoffs in the nearest months, said Mikhail Kirsanov, the director of population employment department of the Russian Ministry of Labor.

"For the period from January 21 to 28 the number of unemployed citizens as registered with the labor office has increased, but only by 3.5% to 903,300 people, which has not produced any significant impact on the overall registered unemployment rate that totaled 1.2% of the economically active population on January 1, 2015, and still shows approximately the same number," he said.

The number of vacant jobs submitted by employers to employment offices for the last weeks has slightly decreased but is still more than that of citizens registered as unemployed, according to Kirsanov.

The number of workers which could potentially be laid off increased nearly by 70,000 people as of January, 1, 2015. As of January 28, their number was as much as 234,400 people, Kirsanov said.

Jan 30, 2015 - 11:56pm

Washington rules out Kerry’s meeting with Ukraine’s self-defence

WASHINGTON, January 31. /TASS/. US Secretary of State John Kerry is not planning to meet with the representatives of the eastern Ukrainian self-defence militias during his trip to the country next week, US Department of State Spokesperson Jen Psaki said on Friday. "We don’t have any plans for that, no," Psaki said when asked if by any chance Kerry, who is due to arrive in the Ukrainian capital Kiev on February 5 for talks with the country’s leadership, could have such a meeting.

In Kiev, Kerry will have talks with the country’s president, prime minister, foreign minister and members of the parliament, before traveling to Germany on February 6. The negotiations in Kiev will focus on the "progress" the Ukrainian authorities have already made and which needs to be continued over the coming months to "de-escalate the situation on the ground," Psaki said. Psaki said the US has been providing a range of material equipment to the Ukrainians and confirmed that "the bar is lethal assistance," which Washington obviously has not made the decision to provide. She said the "focus remains on nonlethal assistance."

Speaking on Poland’s plans to sell arms to Ukraine, Psaki said "every country makes their own decisions," adding that "I’m sure we’re in touch with our counterparts in Poland." During the briefing, the reporters noted that the situation on the ground in eastern Ukraine deteriorated in the last 24 hours. In this context, Psaki mentioned the attack on Debaltseve, in the Donetsk region, and the shelling of a cultural center in Donetsk.

Psaki said Washington condemns the violence and calls for "a full and transparent investigation," while adding that it’s "too early to determine responsibility for the shelling." Speaking on whether it’s possible that the militias are shelling themselves, Psaki said: "There’s a lot happening on the ground. We’re not - we don’t have that much visibility, so we just like to see investigations take place. And obviously, as you know, we encourage all sides to abide by the Minsk protocols."

Jan 30, 2015 - 11:52pm

ChillyD Show

You are right about him going after you as his premise. But, his underlying fears were that he was being suckered in by all the PM charlatans. He wants to believe in the PMs but, like all of us, doesn't know where to run. Yes, he did some very underhanded things initially. But, he always back peddled.

I still say he was trying to game you like you felt, but you handled everything and took him back to the issue on each question. I still say you made him face his insecurities about what to do in a crystal ball world. It is always uncomfortable to be under attack but the rule in court is always stick to the theory of your case and ignore the other side. You did that and he recognized the strength of your purpose.

Like all of us, he wants to feel secure in holding PMs as protection. The bottomline is that politicians can have their muscle, show up in front of your house and shoot a mortar in it and blow you off the block. America used to be not about that. Seems that is always a possibility, but we hope there is that "something" we can have in our possession that will let us live another day. They can always confiscate your PMs, your antique car, your famous painting, your home, your farm...your life like in gas chambers, concentration camps, fake drugs, fake food...but you hope there is that something they can't touch...

I still say he was searching for reinforcement and you gave him that. If you are looking for ain't coming. It never is. Good job.

Edit: We all feel defenseless against the unbelievable US government that would turn on the people for personal gain. We are there and we are sheeple.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again