TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Jan 31, 2015 - 12:31pm

Metals although Cleats Proud Papa

McKown, Ward Honored by NCBWA

Florida Tech's Grant McKown and Scotty Ward have been selected as members of the NCBWA Division II Preseason All-South Region Second Team.

Related Links

MELBOURNE, Fla. (Baseball) – With Opening Day less than one week away, two Florida Tech baseball players have already captured the attention of the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association. Announced Friday, both first baseman Grant McKown and left-handed pitcher Scotty Ward were selected as members of the NCBWA Division II Preseason All-South Region Second Team.

McKown, a sophomore from Lakeland, Florida, finished second on the team in hitting and runs scored in 2014. In 45 starts as a freshman, he collected two homers and 26 runs batted in. In addition, McKown registered 12 multi-hit games, and tied for the team lead with eight multi-RBI contests. He enters the season on a seven-game hitting streak.

The ace of a deep Panther pitching staff, Ward makes the list after rounding out his junior campaign named to the American Baseball Coaches Association/Rawlings All-Region Second Team and being recognized as Second Team All-Sunshine State Conference. The 6-foot-2 southpaw finished tied for the club lead with five wins, and limited opposing hitters to a .228 batting average. His 1.98 earned run average and three complete games both ranked third in the league a year ago.

FIT opens play at Andy Seminick-Les Hall Field on Feb. 2 in a clash with Southeastern University. The first pitch is set for 6 p.m.

Spring and baseball are in the air woo hoo


Jan 31, 2015 - 12:29pm

Superbowl outing

Have fun TF. BTW the smart money is on the under (@ 47.5).

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:26pm

@ bollocks, abguy4

According to Jon Stewart the teleprompter broke and so you got to see "the brown haired Alaskan podium seeker" in its natural state.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:23pm

One more thing...

Despite a HUGE bailout of Feb15 longs on FirstNoticeDay...leaving those standing numbering just 2, expected, Spec open interest came rushing back into April gold yesterday. That contract rose by 8,485 to a whopping 297,718 with a total Comex gold OI rising back to 425,314. (In contrast, on Dec FND back in late November, the Feb15 OI was just 238,915 with total OI of only 372,859.)

This is still off the high last Tuesday by nearly 30,000 contracts so there is still plenty of Spec interest ready to return and drive price back up toward $1300.

In silver, again just as you would expect, March15 OI declined...but only by 710 contracts. To me, this means that over half of the new Spec shorts, which crowded into the trade when silver fell $1.32 on Thursday, are just waiting to be squeezed back out.

Taken all of this together, these preliminary numbers increase the chances of a continued rally in gold early next week...and if gold rallies back to $1300...then silver will very likely rush to "catch up" again...moving back toward $18 and beyond.


Jan 31, 2015 - 12:22pm

Service interruption

Sounds like a great way to take a break from all the fraudulent markets. Have a great time!

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:14pm

Service Interuption

Turd's Final Birthday Present of 2015

I'll be leaving later today to watch The Super Bowl with a few pals in Vegas.

The next full post will likely be a podcast late Monday, though I'll be in the airport and with wifi access through most of my return travel on Monday.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:12pm

I think this stuff is interesting

Even Chris Martenson mentioned during A2A the biblical concept of "debt jubilee". We'll see:

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:34am

Paying off debt

I have zero debt, but I use the hell out of my credit cards that give me rewards. I just pay them off every month. If the purchase price is the same on credit versus debit or cash, I use credit every time. Retailers have credit card fees factored into the prices, so you might as well get a portion of those fees sent to you rather than giving it to the retailer.

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:23am

Islamic State threatens to invade Saudi Arabia

WASHINGTON: Islamic State militants have released a video saying that the group intends to invade Saudi Arabia while the kingdom's throne is changing hands.

According to Fox News, Saudi militants who have joined the IS group in Iraq and Syria issued the statement.

IS militants have also called upon the sympathizers in the country to attack from within.

Experts said that the terror threat shows the organization's desire to annex the wealthiest Middle East nation.

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:15am


"I would much rather have had Sarah Palin as President the last 6 years than Buttock Insane Obummer."


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Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
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