TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Jan 31, 2015 - 12:31pm

Metals although Cleats Proud Papa

McKown, Ward Honored by NCBWA

Florida Tech's Grant McKown and Scotty Ward have been selected as members of the NCBWA Division II Preseason All-South Region Second Team.

Related Links

MELBOURNE, Fla. (Baseball) – With Opening Day less than one week away, two Florida Tech baseball players have already captured the attention of the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association. Announced Friday, both first baseman Grant McKown and left-handed pitcher Scotty Ward were selected as members of the NCBWA Division II Preseason All-South Region Second Team.

McKown, a sophomore from Lakeland, Florida, finished second on the team in hitting and runs scored in 2014. In 45 starts as a freshman, he collected two homers and 26 runs batted in. In addition, McKown registered 12 multi-hit games, and tied for the team lead with eight multi-RBI contests. He enters the season on a seven-game hitting streak.

The ace of a deep Panther pitching staff, Ward makes the list after rounding out his junior campaign named to the American Baseball Coaches Association/Rawlings All-Region Second Team and being recognized as Second Team All-Sunshine State Conference. The 6-foot-2 southpaw finished tied for the club lead with five wins, and limited opposing hitters to a .228 batting average. His 1.98 earned run average and three complete games both ranked third in the league a year ago.

FIT opens play at Andy Seminick-Les Hall Field on Feb. 2 in a clash with Southeastern University. The first pitch is set for 6 p.m.

Spring and baseball are in the air woo hoo


Jan 31, 2015 - 12:29pm

Superbowl outing

Have fun TF. BTW the smart money is on the under (@ 47.5).

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:26pm

@ bollocks, abguy4

According to Jon Stewart the teleprompter broke and so you got to see "the brown haired Alaskan podium seeker" in its natural state.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:23pm

One more thing...

Despite a HUGE bailout of Feb15 longs on FirstNoticeDay...leaving those standing numbering just 2, expected, Spec open interest came rushing back into April gold yesterday. That contract rose by 8,485 to a whopping 297,718 with a total Comex gold OI rising back to 425,314. (In contrast, on Dec FND back in late November, the Feb15 OI was just 238,915 with total OI of only 372,859.)

This is still off the high last Tuesday by nearly 30,000 contracts so there is still plenty of Spec interest ready to return and drive price back up toward $1300.

In silver, again just as you would expect, March15 OI declined...but only by 710 contracts. To me, this means that over half of the new Spec shorts, which crowded into the trade when silver fell $1.32 on Thursday, are just waiting to be squeezed back out.

Taken all of this together, these preliminary numbers increase the chances of a continued rally in gold early next week...and if gold rallies back to $1300...then silver will very likely rush to "catch up" again...moving back toward $18 and beyond.


Jan 31, 2015 - 12:22pm

Service interruption

Sounds like a great way to take a break from all the fraudulent markets. Have a great time!

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:14pm

Service Interuption

Turd's Final Birthday Present of 2015

I'll be leaving later today to watch The Super Bowl with a few pals in Vegas.

The next full post will likely be a podcast late Monday, though I'll be in the airport and with wifi access through most of my return travel on Monday.

Jan 31, 2015 - 12:12pm

I think this stuff is interesting

Even Chris Martenson mentioned during A2A the biblical concept of "debt jubilee". We'll see:

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:34am

Paying off debt

I have zero debt, but I use the hell out of my credit cards that give me rewards. I just pay them off every month. If the purchase price is the same on credit versus debit or cash, I use credit every time. Retailers have credit card fees factored into the prices, so you might as well get a portion of those fees sent to you rather than giving it to the retailer.

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:23am

Islamic State threatens to invade Saudi Arabia

WASHINGTON: Islamic State militants have released a video saying that the group intends to invade Saudi Arabia while the kingdom's throne is changing hands.

According to Fox News, Saudi militants who have joined the IS group in Iraq and Syria issued the statement.

IS militants have also called upon the sympathizers in the country to attack from within.

Experts said that the terror threat shows the organization's desire to annex the wealthiest Middle East nation.

Jan 31, 2015 - 11:15am


"I would much rather have had Sarah Palin as President the last 6 years than Buttock Insane Obummer."


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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

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