TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Feb 2, 2015 - 10:16am
Feb 2, 2015 - 8:59am

Shanghai copper jumps nearly 3pc on China stimulus hopes

MELBOURNE: Shanghai copper jumped nearly three percent on Monday, after an official report showed factory growth in China shrank for the first time in more than two years last month, fuelling hopes for increased stimulus from the world's second biggest economy

The more China's economy slows, the more pressure Beijing will have to stimulate it, although so far this has failed to put much of a floor under copper prices, said analyst James Glenn of National Australia Bank in Melbourne. "You could see restocking ahead of Chinese New Year, and there are increasing chances the SRB (State Reserve Bureau) could take advantage of lower prices as well, which could support prices in this quarter," Glenn said. "(Still) in terms of real demand, we don't see a lot turning around in the near term," he added.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded up 0.4 percent at $5,515.50 a tonne, adding to 2 percent gains from the previous session. Prices, however, are still within reach of a 5-1/2-year low of $5,339.50 a tonne plumbed last week.

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:57am

Firms prepare for new tax rules as China vows crackdown

The Chinese government's vow to increase tax scrutiny of foreign companies has sent firms rushing to tax advisors ahead of the implementation on Sunday of new rules designed to rein in cross-border tax avoidance. Tax professionals and business lobbies alike have welcomed the move as an attempt to bring China's tax regime more in line with international standards.

But it has also caused concern that authorities could use the policy, which came into effect on February 1, as a political tool to put the pinch on foreign companies, on top of what business lobbies lament is an increasingly tough business climate in the world's second largest economy. "We've definitely been getting a lot of questions from clients on how to avoid being investigated for anti-avoidance measures," said Roberta Chang, a Shanghai-based tax lawyer at Hogan Lovells.

Chinese regulators hit Microsoft Corp with about $140 million in back taxes last November, an early case of what could be a wave of "targeted actions" to stop profits going overseas, according officials at China's State Administration of Taxation. At a meeting of G20 leaders in Australia in November, Chinese President Xi Jinping endorsed a global effort to crack down on international tax avoidance.

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:55am

Obama confirms US involvement in state coup — Lavrov

BEIJING, February 2. /TASS/. The statement of US President Barack Obama on the United States role in "brokering power transition" in Ukraine confirms that Washington was involved in the February state coup, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday.

Speaking about Obama’s interview with CNN on Sunday, Lavrov said the US leader confirmed that the US has been "since the very beginning involved in an anti-governmental coup which Obama called neutrally a "power transition." "The rhetoric that sounded in the interview speaks about Washington’s intention to further do everything to implicitly support the actions of the current Kiev authorities which have apparently taken the course towards suppressing the conflict by force only," Lavrov said.

The Russian foreign minister said Europe also shares the assessment that there is a need to establish a direct dialogue between the Kiev authorities and the representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. However, Lavrov said this effort has encountered attempts to disrupt the negotiation process. "But I’m convinced that everyone who sincerely wishes peace to the Ukrainian people, and Russia is definitely among these countries like as I understand are Germany, France and other Europeans, and the OSCE, then we need to continue this effort and do everything so that the direct dialogue is launched and should bring the results," Lavrov said.

Lavrov noted that while the Western partners call for a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition across the world, including in Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan and South Sudan, Ukraine remains an exception. "In regard to Ukraine, the Western colleagues are only speaking about that the main issue is to provide every support to the actions of Kiev," Lavrov said, adding that Kiev’s evident wrongful actions are not being criticized. "We support a direct dialogue and will be actively involved in it as a party that contributes to the work of the Contact Group. And simply as Ukraine’s neighbor, we have been doing a lot to support its economy," he said.

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:50am

S.Korean carmakers' global sales decline in Jan.

SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Xinhua) -- Global auto sales by five South Korean carmakers declined last month on weak demand for locally- made cars from overseas, industry data showed Monday.

Auto sales at home and abroad by Hyundai, Kia, GM Korea, Renault Samsung and Ssangyong totaled 717,332 in January, down 3.4 percent from a year earlier.

Global auto sales by top carmaker Hyundai Motor and its affiliate Kia Motors reduced 6.7 percent and 1.8 percent each in January, with those for GM Korea and Ssangyong Motor falling 3.8 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively.

Domestic car sales by the five automakers increased 5 percent from a year earlier to 111,620 units in January, but their exports declined 4.8 percent to 605,712 units.

As the currency wars heat up.

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:49am

China's January manufacturing PMI falls to 28-month low

BEIJING, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- Chinese manufacturing business activity continued to wane in January as a key index dropped to below 50 for the first time since October 2012, marking increasing downward pressures on the economy, official data showed on Sunday.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), a key measure of factory activity in China, posted at 49.8 in January, down 0.3 percentage point from December, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 represents contraction.

The PMI of large manufacturers posted 50.3, down from 51.4 in December but still marking expanding activity.However, that of medium enterprises stood at 49.9, up 1.2 percentage points but still in a state of contraction. The PMI of small manufacturers recovered to 46.4, up from 45.5 in December, and remained in the contraction territory, the NBS said.

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:46am

U.S. oil firms, workers must look far back for strike precedents

As oil companies prepare to cope with strikes at nine U.S. refineries and chemical plants, accounting for about 10 percent of U.S. refining capacity, they can look to distant lessons from the three-month-long strike that started on Jan. 8, 1980. Then, plants continued to operate despite widespread picket lines by union members fighting for improved pay and benefits such as dental coverage.

In 1980, the companies relied upon retired workers and people from other plants to run the refineries where strikes occurred, recalled Bob Landry, a retired refinery worker in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. “Looking back now, we all have all our teeth when we retire. It was a good thing, you have to look at the long run,” he said.

On Sunday, union workers took to picket lines after the United Steelworkers union (USW) said Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the lead industry negotiator, halted talks over pay and conditions. Shell activated a strike contingency plan at its sprawling joint venture refinery and chemical plant in Deer Park, Texas, to keep operating normally, and other companies, like Tesoro Corp sprung into action at their own plants.

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:41am

Good news for Canadians

Thank you for posting this. I was not aware of this development.

Feb 2, 2015 - 8:36am

China's Xi hails India, Russia ties

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday hailed his country's relations with India and Russia as Beijing looks to increase its heft on the global diplomatic stage.

Twin visits by New Delhi's foreign minister Sushma Swaraj and Sergei Lavrov from Moscow come on the heels of a high-profile trip to India by US President Barack Obama last week, and with Russian leader Vladimir Putin globally isolated over the conflict in Ukraine.

Xi told Swaraj that China-India ties "have entered a new stage of growth" since he visited in September. "The positive side of China-India relations has been growing, the momentum of our cooperation has been strengthening," he added.

China and India are the world's two most populous countries but ties between the nuclear-armed neighbours are still characterised by mutual suspicion, in large part as a legacy of a brief but bloody war in 1962 and a continuing border dispute. But Swaraj was similarly effusive, telling Xi that "relations between our two countries have risen to a whole new level".

Feb 2, 2015 - 7:43am

Check out the photo at the top of the article - third guy along - looks like a Turdite on the picket lines

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

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