TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 30


Right on cue, gold rebounded today and recovered most of the contract expiration losses of yesterday. Now, with another volatile week ahead, can it crawl back toward $1300 and, if it does, what will happen with silver?

As we wrap up the week and the month (a month which saw gold +8% while the S&P was -3%), just a discussion of these charts:



the HUI and the S&P

And this crazy chart of 10-year German and Japanese bond yields

Regarding the totally insane global interest rate picture, please print off and read this remarkable story from Zerohedge. Then take the printed copy and add it to your Stack For Posterity.

And finally, here's a fun article from SRSrocco covering many of the topics we regularly discuss here in Turdville:

Have a great weekend!



Jan 30, 2015 - 5:18pm

on the podium! turd

thanks for excellent analysis

Jan 30, 2015 - 5:19pm

I stealing first

Great job Turd

ps. Hearing the fed members comment on rates today, my mind immediately turned to yesterday's fine yield curve education and I understood perfectly that they are full of BS and why. Thanks again Turd!

bim jeam
Jan 30, 2015 - 5:22pm

How about...


Jan 30, 2015 - 5:24pm

Dow closed at it's low...

...just about 100 pts above the, "melt down to 15,000" gravity well.

Denver Dave said it well today,

"The Orwellian smoke blowing from Wall Street and DC is getting immensely thick. I’m not sure anyone in the brokerage industry, Congress or the White House is capable of telling the truth even if they felt compelled. I have a spooky feeling our system is really starting to fall apart behind the scenes…"

Jan 30, 2015 - 5:38pm


Could it be?

AND Turd did a Jeffrey Christian imitation: I couldn't be happier!!

Jan 30, 2015 - 6:03pm

Negative Interest Rates

Really Makes Me Scared. Or Should I be Happy? But For Everything To Collapse (Especially The Derivatives) Interest Rates Need To Climb I'm Told. Keep Stacking.

Jan 30, 2015 - 6:05pm

Golden Cross...

I think that most regard THE"Golden Cross" to be a cross over of the 50 and 200 day SMA's, although in reading for this post I have seen that some regard any MA cross over to be eligible for a Golden Cross. Anyways, $GOLD has a 50 and 100 SMA cross over, thanks for pointing it out.

Can anyone give an opine on purchasing silver via Sterling Silver playable musical Flutes? The wife and daughter both play and I have seen antique ones for sale from $400 to $900 recently.

Good Luck All...


Dr. P. Metals
Jan 30, 2015 - 6:15pm

LCS Report

Lots of sellers yesterday, today was slow. He seemed to indicate much more selling than buying yesterday, but there had to be some buying (see dimes). Evenly split action between Au/Ag. Everything is in stock, plentiful, no shortages. Coins, Bars, numismatics, everything...except all 90% dimes were bought yesterday.

Jan 30, 2015 - 6:20pm

Hysteria on this Blog

The subscription I recently renewed with TF Metals Report is a really good value at $100. Mr. Furguson I think really works his ass off to provide good information and insight that is often not available in other forums. Many posters provide really good information on their own for us to evaluate. Some posters on the other hand are absolutely whacked and I worry about them on days like yesterday. There is going to be a good deal of volatility from now on. Get used to it. The bankers are not going to lose money, we have to be smart about making money. One poster who shall remain nameless yesterday posted and I paraphrase "All the gains of the last 30 days gone in 8 trading hours". It was pure hyperbole and I wonder what the persons state of mind is. Here are the facts for January. Gold is up 8.5%. Silver is up 10%. The PM stocks as measured by the HUI are up 23%. The bottom was in in November. If you are buying gold, silver and quality producing PM shares (junior producers for me) you are going to come out just fine. Those who think the PM shares are not going to do well may just miss the train.

Jan 30, 2015 - 6:22pm

Berlin says fresh Greek aid 'not on agenda', deny media report

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's Finance Ministry denied on Friday a media report that Berlin would be ready to discuss a new aid package for Greece of up to 20 billion euros if the new leftist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras accepted supervised economic reforms.

"That is not on the agenda at all," said a spokesman for Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. The report in Der Spiegel magazine that Germany estimated Greece's additional aid needs at about 20 billion euros was "pure speculation", he added. Spiegel reported that Germany would be willing to grant Greece fresh aid on condition that it accepted reforms overseen by inspectors from the "troika" - the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Tsipras was elected last weekend on a promise to reverse precisely the kind of austerity measures prescribed by Berlin and supervised by the troika. He has already scrapped some of the privatization plans agreed under the existing bailout deal and his finance minister said on Friday he had no intention of cooperating with the troika.

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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