Ukraine Crisis Worsens

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Regular readers know that we post these podcasts every week in an effort to provide an honest and fair discussion regarding Ukraine Crisis. The program last evening was perhaps the most sober and thought-provoking episode yet. Please make the time today to listen to this podcast.

Again, this is from the American radio program, The John Batchelor Show. More information on John and his program can be found here: http://johnbatchelorshow.com/

His regular guest, every Tuesday evening, is Professor Stephen F. Cohen. Professor Cohen is very likely the foremost American scholar on Russian affairs and Russian history. More on Professor Cohen can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_F._Cohen

With hot war currently waging all across southern Ukraine, the program last evening was a more comprehensive update of the situation than you'll find anywhere else in the western media. Among the topics discussed:

  • What events led to the current expansion of hostilities? Why now?
  • What might be the short-term goals of the NAF (Novorussiya Armed Forces)?
  • The significance of the possible NAF move on Mariupol.
  • The current news out if the U.S. where columnists and warhawks are pleading for Russia to be excluded from the SWIFT system. How will this impact the other BRIC nations and the U.S. dollar as reserve currency? Might this action cause Russia to expropriate other nation's assets held in Russia?
  • That NATO has long since lost the mantle of a "defensive organization".
  • Reports that NATO and U.S. naval forces are building in The Black Sea.
  • The re-emergence of Victoria Nuland as a spokesperson for US policy in Ukraine.
  • The significance of Poland NOT inviting Russia to attend Auschwitz memorial services and the further significance of Ukraine PM "Yats" attempting to rewrite the history of WWII.

As you can tell, there's A LOT here and this podcast requires a thorough listen and your full attention.

Look, I've been bringing these podcasts to you for nearly a year. Why? Because first and foremost, Ukraine Crisis is an existential threat to the current global financial system and The Great Keynesian Experiment. However, this is also an extremely dangerous situation for the entire world. As this crisis deepens, all of humanity is becoming threatened on a level not seen since The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

Again, I beg you to please make the time to listen to this entire podcast and it is incumbent upon you to stay up-to-date on this rapidly escalating situation.

TF

57 Comments

Dr Jerome's picture

Thanks

Thank you Turd. I get a better education here than anywhere else.

CPE's picture

Take it away Johnny Boy!

You too Tricky Vicky!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Doc, that's a very high compliment

MODERATOR

Thank you 

Response to: Thanks
Safety Dan's picture

January 28, 2015 As China

January 28, 2015

As China Plans for War, the US Renames its Battle Plan

By David Archibald

The Pentagon has relabelled its battle plan for fighting China in the Western Pacific.  The battle plan formerly known as AirSea Battle is from now on to be known as “Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons.”  This is very good news because the use of the term Global Commons in the title goes to the heart of what is at stake for the United States and the rest of the free world.

China is intent upon starting a war with Japan and seizing a large patch of ocean in Southeast Asia.  What most people don’t realise about the Chinese nine-dash-claim of territoriality in the South China Sea is that it is not so much about gaining area and resources but excluding others.  Commercial operators might not be affected and don’t care about filling in forms and asking permission to cross the sea or sky.  The Chinese claim, if enforced, would stop any other country’s warships and military aircraft from crossing the South China Sea. Vietnam, which is 1,200 km long, would be restricted to a strip along their coastline that gets as narrow as 92 km.  For Malaysia, their operating strip would be as narrow as 44 km, as shown by these maps from page 5 of State Department Report No. 143:

The Chinese claim to the South China Sea is meant to be a permanent and irrevocable humiliation to the countries of Southeast Asia.  Notions of protecting trade routes and so on are just so much nonsense.  It is all about China feeling better about itself because it is able to humiliate its smaller neighbours.  And the United States too.

By the time China showed up in the Spratley Islands, all the good islands were gone.  Taiwan and the Philippines had airstrips on the only islands large enough to take airstrips.  Vietnam has some substantial bases on its islands.  So China had to start with reefs that were submerged at high tide. 

China’s aggression is fuelled by its rapid economic growth of the last 15 years.  But there are signs aplenty that the economic miracle is running out of puff.  The Chinese economy took off after their accession to the World Trade Agreement in 2001.  China became the world’s preferred subcontractor.  Electronic components made in Japan, Korea and Taiwan are imported into China and put into plastic cases.  The salad days of China’s export-driven growth ended in 2006 when exports as a percentage of GDP peaked at 39.1%.  That has subsequently fallen to 26.4%. 

But the world can only take so much of China’s exports and that point has been reached.  China’s market share of global trade reached 12% in 2011 and has stalled at about that level.  That follows railway freight in China, which doubled between 2003 and 2011 but has stalled since.  Previous premier Wen Jiabao said in 2013 that China’s growth is “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”.  It may also be illusory.

The last time an Asian economic powerhouse was perceived to be overtaking the United States was Japan in 1990.  That Japanese growth turned out to be another real estate bubble.  It is most likely that China’s bubble will go the same way.

We don’t have to spend too much time on economic statistics to divine China’s future.  All we have to do is note what the Chinese themselves are doing, which is leaving.  As John Lee notes, the richest 1% of households (2.1 million out of a total of about 520 million households) own 40-50% of the country’s total real estate and financial assets.  This is the result you would expect from a state-sanctioned kleptocracy.  These wealthy people are voting with their feet.  In a survey last year of almost 1,000 Chinese each worth over $16 million, nearly two-thirds had made arrangements to leave the country permanently or were planning to do so.  This group are particularly well-informed on China’s prospects, with 90% of the 1,000 polled being officials or members of the Chinese Communist Party.  These are people who have stolen what they can and now think that wealth preservation is more important than hanging around to steal some more.  The rats are leaving the sinking ship.

Whereas Wen Jiabao was a Shakespeare-lover, his successor, Xi Jinping, has been more inclined to ‘disguise fair nature with hard-favour’d rage.”  The sudden increase in Chinese aggression in the Senkakus in late 2012 coincided with Xi Jinping becoming General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party.  Around that time, Xi also took control of a special maritime command group responsible for territorial disputes in the East China Sea, according to sources citing Taiwanese intelligence.  Though the rate of Chinese incursions into Japanese territory has dropped off, they still stay exactly two hours before leaving.  The Chinese have possibly calculated that this causes the maximum aggravation to the Japanese relative to effort.

Xi Jinping is now also President of the People’s Republic of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission and Chairman of the National Security Council.  In a number of edicts, he has tacked hard left politically and is railing against foreign influences in Chinese society.  Under the guise of fighting corruption, he has instituted a reign of terror equivalent to the Stalinist purges of the 1930s.  Or perhaps they are just recycling more recent Chinese history.  To quote long-time China watcher Anne Stevenson-Yang in late 2014:

What’s really going on is an old-style party purge reminiscent of the 1950s and 1960s with quota-driven arrests, summary trials, mysterious disappearances, and suicides, which has already entrapped, by our calculations, 100,000 party operatives and others. The intent is not moral purification by the Xi administration but instead the elimination of political enemies and other claimants to the economy’s spoils.

Given that President Xi is quite happy to kill thousands of his countrymen to consolidate his political position, the lives of foreigners would be the merest trifle.

So a war is coming.  China is intent on it and there is nothing any other party can do about it.  The question from here is what is the likely timing?  As a thankyou to China for supporting Russia in its annexation of Crimea and parts of the eastern Ukraine, Russia is selling China six battalions of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles for $3 billion.  Delivery is to be in 2016.  The S-400 has a range of 400 km (more than twice that of the Patriot missile) and travels at 2,000 metres per second.  A launcher based on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratley Islands would cover the southern end of Palawan Island where the Marines are building a few bases.  A launcher based in the Nanji Islands would cover the Senkaku Islands. 

The S-400 would give China a big advantage against the United States and its allies and it is tempting to think that China won’t attack until the systems are delivered and operational some time in 2016.  However Egypt attacked Israel in the Yom Kippur War of 1973 ahead of getting delivery of more advanced weaponry from the Soviet Union.  Israel had thought that the war they could see coming wouldn’t start until new weaponry was in place. 

The event that might be shaping the Chinese timetable could be the finding of the International Law of the Sea Tribunal on the Philippines’ claim against China over the South China Sea.  This is likely by December 2015.  It helps China’s position if they are always the aggrieved party and China may want to change facts on the ground to make the Tribunal’s decision redundant.  If so, that explains why China’s island-making is currently so frantic.

It is easy for a nasty and belligerent country like China to start a war but what of the aftermath?  If China gets to retain the Senkakus and its bases in the Spratley Islands, then it wins and a Chinese version of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere will be imposed on the region.  For the United States and its allies to win and establish a permanent peace, then the Chinese have to be scraped off their newly dredged-up islands in the Spratleys at least.  Those islands, having been created, will now have to be occupied to the end of time.  Otherwise China will be back to create trouble again.  So the United States will get a new airbase at Fiery Cross Reef and a defensive box of bases around it.  It will be like a smaller version of Guam slap bang in the middle of southern Asia, with no sovereignty problems.  But the United States will count its dead in this most unnecessary war and not thank China for the island’s creation. 

David Archibald, a visiting fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance (Regnery, 2014). 

The Pentagon has relabelled its battle plan for fighting China in the Western Pacific.  The battle plan formerly known as AirSea Battle is from now on to be known as “Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons.”  This is very good news because the use of the term Global Commons in the title goes to the heart of what is at stake for the United States and the rest of the free world.

China is intent upon starting a war with Japan and seizing a large patch of ocean in Southeast Asia.  What most people don’t realise about the Chinese nine-dash-claim of territoriality in the South China Sea is that it is not so much about gaining area and resources but excluding others.  Commercial operators might not be affected and don’t care about filling in forms and asking permission to cross the sea or sky.  The Chinese claim, if enforced, would stop any other country’s warships and military aircraft from crossing the South China Sea. Vietnam, which is 1,200 km long, would be restricted to a strip along their coastline that gets as narrow as 92 km.  For Malaysia, their operating strip would be as narrow as 44 km, as shown by these maps from page 5 of State Department Report No. 143:

The Chinese claim to the South China Sea is meant to be a permanent and irrevocable humiliation to the countries of Southeast Asia.  Notions of protecting trade routes and so on are just so much nonsense.  It is all about China feeling better about itself because it is able to humiliate its smaller neighbours.  And the United States too.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/01/as_china_plans_for_war_the_us_renames_its_battle_plan.html#.VMjtBYQufvo.facebook#ixzz3Q84cKsJq 
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

argentus maximus's picture

Dr J's right. TFMR covers an

Dr J's right.

TFMR covers an extraordinary breadth of subjects. The Ukraine coverage here, just for example, leaves big names in the dust.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Come on now...

MODERATOR

You guys are just trying to help me feel better on my birthday...wink

Thanks, though. It does take a lot of work and the kind words are much appreciated.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Not sure what this shows

MODERATOR

But increasing hostilities in Luhansk was mentioned by Professor Cohen:

 

tbryan's picture

Turd

This is one of two places I go to for information.  All the others are not trustworthy.  Thank you for all you do and a great job!  Happy B day man!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Oh my goodness

MODERATOR

American praetorian media hack Thomas Friedman chimes in today.

"If Putin the Thug gets away with crushing Ukraine’s new democratic experiment and unilaterally redrawing the borders of Europe, every pro-Western country around Russia will be in danger."

Disgraceful: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/opinion/thomas-friedman-czar-putins-next-moves.html?_r=1

Silver Sooner's picture

re: Not Sure What This Shows

The Novorussian offensive has ground to a halt.  Ukraine has thrown their reserves to the front and is counter-attacking in select areas.  Fierce fighting continues all along the front line, especially around Donetsk, Gorlovka, around the Debaltseve "pocket" and north of Lugansk.  *Very little is happening around Mariupol.*  

The next few days are going to be very important.  Does NAF have a larger, operational plan--or was it simply to push the front lines ~30km?  One has to think that Novorussia wouldn't have gone on such a broad offensive and NOT have something up their sleeve (their resources are such that they can't be careless).  

Also, Ukraine's latest mobilization is NOT going well.  

Very, very tense situation all along the front with the current view through the fog showing a current stalemate.  Again, the next 5-7 days are going to be VERY important.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

As a reminder...

MODERATOR

This is from yesterday and Medvedev is Putin's right hand man.

Western countries’ threats to restrict Russia’s operations through the SWIFT international bank transaction system will prompt Russia’s counter-response without limits, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday.

"We’ll watch developments and if such decisions are made, I want to note that our economic reaction and generally any other reaction will be without limits," he said.

http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/773628

ggnewmex's picture

My thanks as well, Happy Birthday

To be true and to follow with the previous comments..

this site is increasingly more invaluable to education and preparation.

The types of people that are here in addition to the varieties of backgrounds that are represented proves that 

this is not some fringe society, but rather an assembly of intellectual talent. 

Give credit where credit is due.

Silver Sooner's picture

Heavy Shelling in Donetsk

Just got a text from Mrs. SS.  NE Donetsk is getting shelled hard.  Parents-in-law live in the Kuibyshivski District and they're hiding in the basement because the shelling is so close.  

Remember that you didn't hear about this in the MSM or from the State Department.  Think about it next time SecState express outrage over a "separatist attack" on a peaceful city. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Prayers for your family SS

MODERATOR

Can't even imagine the horror and terror of living there.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Tweeted by ZH

MODERATOR

A reminder link to an article from back in October re SWIFT:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-06/swift-announces-it-regrets-pressure-disconnect-russia

Marchas45's picture

AWE SHIT

We Forgot Turds Birthday or I Did.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TURD

GuerrillaCapitalist's picture

They're Right & Happy Birthday

I don't think I've missed a day of TFMR since the Watchtower days, with the possible exception of the rare day when I'm out of internet range. News, studied opinion and community all in one location. You've done an amazing job and deserve all accolades along with a big pile of shiny stuff. I count you and most members as dear friends.

Happy Birthday, Turd. My beloved son's birthday is tomorrow, so tonight we'll include you in our yearly recounting of the year, fueled by copious amounts of hand made bourbon. Tonight we're cracking a bottle put away in 1980, ought to be smooooooth. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thank you both

MODERATOR

Just trying to do my best to NOT age gracefully

Turd Ferguson's picture

Allegedly Donetsk today

MODERATOR
Cranky Old Bat's picture

Hey There, Craig!

Happy birthday, you young whippersnapper! You do a lot of good in this world. Keep up the fight. You are greatly appreciated.

Silver Sooner's picture

re: Allegedly Donetsk Today

Reports are also that today Ukraine sent a force of 40 tanks and 15 infantry fighting vehicles to the village of Avdiyivka (NE of Donetsk airport).  

ggnewmex's picture

WOW, just listened

Is that ever eye opening, and quite frankly, this is disturbing.

To think of revisionist history, and no media about it.... ( I understand deflate-gate is important, 

what with the Super Bowl and all) but this is .....disturbing.

WOW, prepare accordingly. Without question, we will all wake up one day to the media crowing

"how and when did this happen"

thanks for the link TF

gg

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Toid

Tanks for da post about Ukraine.   Da wife, da mudder-in-law and I all tree listened.

And, by da way, Happy Boitday to Youse.

Woke up from a dream dis mornin' where I was livin' in Brooklyn.

Foid

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Refusing to age gracefully?

Party on, TF!  And Happy Birthday !

Donutwarrior's picture

Happy Birthday

And I agree, this is by far the best source of info on the Ukraine War.  Keep up the good work.

tyberious's picture

happy birthday

Happy Birthday!

Angry Chef's picture

Happy B'Day Turd

The way I see it this gets down to the Petrodollar. Since 1971 when Nixon defaulted on the World and closed the Gold window, the World has been subsidizing us. They had no choice. They needed to buy Oil. In so doing NATO has been allowed to continue with endless warfare and never have to pay for it. Just keep printing money and de-value the currency. Hell, who cares. It's the World that is paying with de-valued Treasuries. So then we ship our productive economy to China and thus allow them to buy up all of the ports, mines, farm land, prime Real Estate, Gold etc.... and they're happy to do it as they continue to buy up "hard assets ". With the World funding our expansion and encirclement of Russia and China, we now find ourselves on the brink of direct confrontation with not 1 but 2 Nuclear Powers.

I don't see how this ends well. If Russia and China end up playing the Gold card with a Gold backed trade note or Bond. The value of our money gets severely exposed. If our money gets devalued and nobody wants our Treasuries, we can no longer pay our troops. Then what ?

Either the Pentagon wakes up and adverts this. Or we're in for something horrific. Even more horrific than the treatment these poor bastards below got.

http://beforeitsnews.com/canada/2015/01/this-is-how-traitors-should-be-handled-856.html

Happy B'Day Turd.

Blythesshrink's picture

Happy birthday and thanks for

Happy birthday and thanks for this brilliant site which is well worth the subscription.  Hopefully the Greeks are now going to make it harder for the hawks to use the EU establishment to push through more sanctions and sour relations with Russia even more.

Golden Ox's picture

Happy B-Day, appreciate the great informatio

I'm a fairly new subscriber, wanted to wish you a Happy B-Day! Am really impressed with the valuable information you deliver on a daily basis - definitely worth a lot more than $10 Federal Reserve Notes a month. 

Enjoy the day with your wife and family, Best Wishes for many more. 

CPE's picture

@Angychef

WOW, that video is a must watch.  Caption from the video:  (this area in Bosse region of Donetsk was hit by UAF strike earlier that day killing over 13 civilians, so these people's anger is justified)

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