A2A with Jim Comiskey

105

Legendary commodity broker Jim Comiskey joined us today for the first A2A of the new year.

In this 45-minute call, Jim addresses:

  • the current, historic move in crude oil
  • falling natural gas prices
  • how he's consistently profiting trading currencies
  • why he prefers futures options to futures
  • the outlook for the dollar, the euro and ECBQE
  • and much, much more...

I think you'll find this discussion very helpful and a great start to the 2015 A2A season.

TF

  105 Comments

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Jan 9, 2015 - 9:06am

My goodness. What a horrible BLSBS

Not according to CNBS, of course. Oh no, this is GREAT! Didn't you hear Hampton Pearson say +252,000??

Read this and you'll soon discover just how horrific the report was: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-09/labor-participation-rate-drops...

  • Americans "not in labor force" soars by 451,000
  • Household Survey only up 111,000
  • WORST Labor Force Participation Rate since December of 1977
  • Average hourly earnings fell, too
-SilverIsMoney-
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:57am

Amazing BS...

The POG was at $1218 at 7:30CST - 15min later it was magically $1210 and then over the next 10min it's risen back up to $1214.

Just one day i'd love to see an unhampered chart... just one freaking day... how anyone can look at these absurd 1min charts and not get it is just ridiculous.

https://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Look at the 1min and you'll see a picture perfect early morning cap job minute by minute....

Mr. Fix
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:50am

Here it is!

Non-Farm Payrolls Rise By More Than Expected 252K, But Hourly Earnings Plunge Most In At Least 8 Years

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/09/2015 - 08:39

On the surface, the December jobs report was good, with 252K jobs added, higher than the 240K expected, leading to a fresh cycle low unemployment rate of 5.6%, down from 5.8% and below the 5.7% expected, and with the November data revised to a whopping 353K from 321K, a net change of 50K including the October revision. However it was the average hourly earnings where the real details were hid, and it was here that Wall Street was expecting a 0.2% increase. Intead the BLS reported a whoppping 0.2% decline in average hourly earnings, with the last month's 0.4% jump revised lower by half to 0.2%.

Mr. Fix
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:41am

If You Watch Television, You Are Going to Die!

If You Watch Television, You Are Going to Die!

The collapse of the American economy has begun in earnest despite the fact that the American people are being propagandized in earnest that economic recovery is right around corner. Right around corner? Just like reinforcements for General Custer’s forces were right around the corner? And the American economy is poised to suffer the same fate as General Custer. This article comes with a ..

There's no nice way to put it…

https://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2015/01/09/if-you-watch-television-yo...

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:39am

Wanted

Police name 2 suspects linked to second siege in Porte de Vincennes, they are Amedy Coulibaly & Hayat Boumeddiene

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:36am

With all of the angry "youth"

With all of the angry "youth" in the Muslim "slums", I fear you are correct. Please keep us posted.

Jan 9, 2015 - 8:35am

BLSBS

As the goons on CNBS celebrate how close they might have been in guessing the imaginary number, several things jump out:

  • decline in hourly earnings
  • another drop in participation rate

Should be very interesting to get the truth and actual analysis from ZH in a bit.

In the meantime, the metals are UP just a bit....which they should be. In a "traditional" sense, this sounds like a gold bullish BLSBS.

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:27am

2 deads in Porte de Vincennes (Paris) in a new attack

We are on the verge of a civil war in Paris. Things do accelerate down here.

2nd shooting in Paris. French media say one person injured and at least one hostage taken at Jewish shop Porte de Vincennes area.

DeaconBenjamin
Jan 9, 2015 - 8:12am

Big banks park beat-up energy sector bonds in U.S. money funds

BOSTON (Reuters) - Big European and American banks have found a productive place to park the energy sector's most distressed debt: the $2.7 trillion U.S. money market industry. Barclays Bank plc, Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo and others get overnight and short-term loans from companies that run money market mutual funds such as Fidelity Investments, BlackRock Inc, American Beacon and others. The banks use the money to fund long positions in securities or to cover short positions. For collateral, the funds are accepting the junk-rated bonds of beat-up energy companies.

Even though the value of the bonds are in free fall as oil prices plummet, the money funds readily accept the debt, because it's a way to generate above-market yields in an industry hurt by near-zero interest rates. In 2014, the average yield for taxable money fund investors was a paltry 0.01 percent. Banks currently have about $90 billion outstanding in short-term and overnight loans backed by riskier assets that include corporate debt and equities.

The exact amount of junk-rated energy debt used as collateral was not available. But more than a dozen of the sector's mostly highly distressed issuers, including QuickSilver Resources, Black Elk Energy, Halcon Resources, Samson Investment and Sidewinder Drilling Inc, have had their bonds used as collateral, according to recent fund disclosures. These so-called "other repurchase agreements" generate above-market yields for the funds, ranging anywhere from 20 basis points to 50 basis points. In contrast, repo loans backed by safe U.S. Treasuries can generate yields of about 10 basis points and less, according to recent fund disclosures.

Money funds downplay the risk in the repo transactions backed by the junk-rated collateral. They say their ultimate backstop is the bank on the other side of the deal. Fidelity, the largest money fund operator in the industry, declined to comment on any specific transaction. In a statement, the company said, "We make an independent assessment on the counter-party credit quality in all repurchase agreements to ensure the counter-party represents minimal credit risk."

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/big-banks-park-beat-energy-sector-bond...

DeaconBenjamin
Jan 9, 2015 - 7:54am

Entire oil complex slips into contango for first time since 2009

By Jane Xie SINGAPORE, Jan 9 (Reuters) - For the first time since 2009, a contract to buy crude oil or any sort of refined product costs less if it's for immediate delivery than for future shipment, giving traders more reason to buy now than later. This phenomenon motivates traders to purchase oil now, store it in tanks and sell it for a profit when prompt demand recovers. But whether the contango - or when spot prices are at a discount to future prices - would help lift the market remains to be seen. Benchmark Brent crude prices have fallen over 50 percent since August.

The entire oil complex slipped into contango on Wednesday as a deluge of cargoes triggered by the rise of U.S. shale oil and refinery expansions earlier in the decade struggle to find takers due to slowing economic growth, especially in Asia and Europe. The prompt February Brent crude contract is at a discount of more than a barrel to the February 2017 equivalent.

"For crude, there's a structural change, going from fairly balanced to an oversupply," said Richard Gorry, managing director of Vienna-headquartered energy consultancy JBC Energy. "For products...demand has not collapsed, (it's) just a tendency of oversupply of refining capacity and slower demand than had hoped for." The last time the entire oil complex fell into contango was in the final quarter of 2009 when markets were emerging from the height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/entire-oil-complex-slips-contango-firs...

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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