A2A with Jim Comiskey

105

Legendary commodity broker Jim Comiskey joined us today for the first A2A of the new year.

In this 45-minute call, Jim addresses:

  • the current, historic move in crude oil
  • falling natural gas prices
  • how he's consistently profiting trading currencies
  • why he prefers futures options to futures
  • the outlook for the dollar, the euro and ECBQE
  • and much, much more...

I think you'll find this discussion very helpful and a great start to the 2015 A2A season.

TF

  105 Comments

Orange
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:26am

Paris

Just heard on Sky news that this is a very professional attack as the first Je suis Charlie group drew the special forces outside of Paris and then had the follow on attacks inside Paris. They think more attacks may follow as a result.

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:30am

False alarm in Trocadero, Paris.

A lot of tension in Paris right now.

CPE
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:38am

@Mr fix

lol, thanks for the cartoon, that's the absolute truth. h/t

Chuck Diesel
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:43am

Miners are up nicely this morning

And that's with gold and silver more or less flat.

CPE
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:46am

@Chuck D

I think it's because they were sold off hard into yesterday's close, today's a rebound to coincide with Au's non selloff.

Or I could be wrong entirely and someone with deep pockets just saw that almost every other asset is mark to unicorn but the miners are being given away for nothin.

tyberious
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:47am

Once, but Not Now

Once, but Not Now

"The original American exceptionalism was about individual self-determination. It was clearly not about cradle-to-grave control, administered by two interlocked cabals in the capital city.

Once, America was truly different. People lived as they wished and barely saw the government. They had rights that government couldn’t touch, not just in propaganda, but in real life.

Now, America is the same as all the other nations, and government reigns supreme. Personal sovereignty has been outlawed.

There are still a few currents from the early days running through American hearts, and I do pray that they continue. But to pretend that American exceptionalism exists on any level beyond that is misleading propaganda… a pretty lie that encourages us to praise ourselves.

A Free-Man’s Take is written by adventure capitalist, author, and freedom advocate Paul Rosenberg. You can get much more from Paul in his unique monthly newsletter, Free-Man’s Perspective."

https://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/the-passing-of-american-exceptionalism...

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:49am

Paris Jewish quarter (rue des Rosiers) told by police to close

They seem to anticipate more action in the coming hours.

Arag
Jan 9, 2015 - 9:54am

Paris events

No dead at Porte de Vincennes, according to the Ministry of Interior. It was an erroneous info.

Crisis meeting right now at the Elysée, with President Hollande.

CPE
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:08am

Well

it's all fun and games while Kamikazi Kuroda shorts the Yen/goes long the Nikkei/and shorts Gold until Gold slips through his insane little fingers.

USD/YEN down so Au priced in Pig Filth is up


Jan 9, 2015 - 10:09am

And all of a sudden…a rally

Again, the BLSBS was awful. NO reason for the metals to go down on the news...at least absent blatant manipulation.

Suddenly, both gold and silver are catching a bid. Lasts of $1218 and $16.55.

I believe you all know the levels to watch...

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:09am

Civil war coming up in France

Evacuation of families in Vincennes:

In the same time some guys are signaling their hostility to the helicopters (police):

When I see this video, I can not think positive about the future of my country.

Scène surréaliste en direct sur ITélé !! #JeSuisCharlie

Look at those kids behind the journalist: they are supporting terrorists.

I am so depressed.

CPE
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:18am

The Keystone of the Islamic Milieu: Inbreeding

Sounds logical to me

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2011/04/the_keystone_of_the_isl...

The Keystone of the Islamic Milieu: Inbreeding

By Ann Barnhardt - April 13, 2011

The darkest hour is just before dawn. A huge swath of this planet, from the Straits of Gibraltar to the Philippine Sea, has been held in a synthetic, forced nightfall for nearly fourteen centuries. But the sunrise is coming, it is coming sooner rather than later, and this light will be the life of men.

Everywhere in the western world, people look at the savage violence that is a daily occurrence in the Muslim world and shake their heads in stunned disbelief. A pastor of a very small Christian flock in Florida burns a Koran. Weeks later at literally the global antipode, Muslim imams drive through neighborhoods in a vehicle with loudspeakers attached, calling the townsfolk to riot. The townsfolk respond, and before it is all over, at least 22 innocent people are dead at the hands of these townsfolk, with at least two of them beheaded. How is this possible? How can this be? How can human behavior and culture be so monstrously different? Is this difference attributable to nothing more than environmental nurture theory?

No. There is something else. There is a catalyst -- absent in every other culture on earth -- that has poisoned the cultural soil, thus yielding the fruit of bad harvest for nearly 1,400 years. That catalyst is inbreeding. As a direct result, the Muslim population is mentally developmentally disabled on a mass scale.

All human cultures display strict prohibitions against inbreeding and consanguineous marriage. Incest is a universal taboo. This is a transcendent anthropological fact. As a Roman Catholic, I attribute this to what is called "The Natural Law." Every human person without exception is created by God with a deep, innate knowledge of good and evil, right and wrong. Stabbing someone in the neck for no reason whatsoever is just as wrong here in Lone Tree, Colorado as it is in the Amazon basin, as it is on the high plateaus of Mongolia.

But there is one culture, one faux "religion," that expressly condones and encourages consanguineous marriage and breeding. That system is Islam, and the document that explicitly ratifies incest is the Koran, specifically Sura 4 verse 23:

Prohibited for you (in marriage) are your mothers, your daughters, your sisters, the sisters of your fathers, the sisters of your mothers, the daughters of your brother, the daughters of your sister, your nursing mothers, the girls who nursed from the same woman as you, the mothers of your wives, the daughters of your wives with whom you have consummated the marriage -- if the marriage has not been consummated, you may marry the daughter. Also prohibited for you are the women who were married to your genetic sons. Also, you shall not be married to two sisters at the same time -- but do not break up existing marriages.

Sounds like an exhaustive list -- but it is not. It is the most lax incest prohibition in all of human culture. There is a massive omission: cousins only once removed. In the Muslim culture, marriage and breeding between first cousins has existed since day one. Mohammed himself married Zaynab, who was his father's sister's daughter. Mohammed and Zaynab were direct first cousins.

Marrying your first cousin is the genetic equivalent of marrying your half-sibling. Think of your own family. Let's say your dad has a sister, who is "Aunt Linda" to you. Your dad and Aunt Linda, being full siblings, have exactly the same genetic constitution. Their family trees prior to their generation are identical. Therefore, if Aunt Linda has any children, who are your first cousins, they are, in genetic terms, 50% identical to you. You share one of your two genetic constituencies with your cousins, thus making them genetically the same as a half-sibling would be.

First cousin marriage for just one generation is extremely risky in and of itself. This is why virtually every other culture on earth prohibits it, and treats it as a cultural taboo. When two people come together who carry so many similar genetic alleles, the chance of an undesirable recessive trait expressing itself in their offspring soars. Now, understanding that single-generational risk, understand that Muslims have been marrying their first cousins over and over again for 1,400 years. Sit in stillness for a moment with the full, terrifying gravity of this.

The Reproductive Health Journal reports the following rates on consanguinity in Muslim countries. Where a statistical range has been recorded, I have used the lower parameter:

Algeria: 22.6%
Bahrain: 39.4%
Egypt (North): 20.9%
Egypt (Nubia-South): 60.5%
Iraq: 47.0%
Jordan: 28.5%
Kuwait: 22.5%
Lebanon: 12.8%
Libya: 48.4%
Mauritania: 47.2%
Morocco: 19.9%
Oman: 56.3%
Palestine: 17.5%
Qatar: 54.0%
Saudi Arabia: 42.1%
Sudan: 44.2%
Syria: 30.3%
Tunisia: 20.1%
United Arab Emirates: 40.0%
Yemen: 40.0%

Muslim men are never, ever allowed to be around, see, converse with or otherwise interact with any females outside of their families. However, they are permitted to act as chaperones for their female first cousins. If your first cousin is the only person of the opposite sex you ever get to interact with, is it any surprise that Muslims are marrying their first cousins more as the rule than as the exception?

According to the BBC, 55% of Pakistani-Britons are married to a first cousin, and as a corollary to that produce "just under a third" of all children in the UK with genetic illnesses, despite being only 3% of the total births.

As a direct result of inbreeding, the Muslim population is the only population on earth that is mentally and physically devolving. This inherent weakness makes Muslim populations more susceptible to nefarious, oppressive leadership and mass manipulation. The amount of objective evidence supporting this statement is colossal and obvious.

But there is hope. All is not lost. In my education in animal husbandry, I was keenly interested in my genetics classes. One of the key concepts in farm animal genetics is "hybrid vigor." This is the genetic principle which states that the crossbreeding of two genetically diverse plants or animals of the same species yields offspring of increased vigor and other superior qualities. All plants and animals have been designed to "bring out the best in themselves," and our DNA has built-in fail-safes to edit and correct any flaws which creep into our DNA over time. Given this, if the people now living under the fist of Islam are finally freed and can court and love and marry whomever they choose, thus reopening the genetic pool, this will allow hybrid vigor to cleanse and restore to full health their populations.

". . . et lux in tenebris lucet et tenebrae eam non conprehenderunt."

erewenguy
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:26am

Movin' on up

The charge to $1250 has begun.

We might see it next week.

the Jeffersons intro theme song(Movin on Up)
CPE
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:33am

Currency Games

EUR/CHF trades below the peg a few minutes ago. Saw a print of 1.19961...

There are too many swans coming from too many directions to follow. At least Fellen is omnipresent, oh wait...

Chuck Diesel
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:35am
AIJ
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:35am

Time to break out??

???

Talking Heads, "Burning Down the House"

matt_
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:38am

Can Gold Miners Outperform Gold?

Article with that title here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2809015-can-gold-miners-outperform-gold

Spoiler: The answer to the question is usually NO.

Article has a link to a Mike Maloney youtube video in which he says that investing in gold stocks rather than gold is adding risk to what is otherwise a sure thing that outperforms the mining stocks anyway. Wish I had listened to that years ago.

Chuck Diesel
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:43am

In a shocking turn of events

Silver was turned away at $16.60

erewenguy
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:49am

Silver

Silver has an upcoming date with its 100 day MA. Patience.

realitybiter
Jan 9, 2015 - 10:53am

Miners are

tricky and risky. Of course, there is risk of myriad things....company finances, geopolitics, etc....which the metal simply does not have. The SA article speaks of what if there is a general stock market decline and how that will effect miners. Really? Have ya seen the miners the last three years? It was general market evisceration....there aint no meat on the bone left. I don't know what the future holds. I do know the past. This general stock market seems a lot more like 1999 than 2007/8....in '99 and into 2000 the miners got creamed. The hui bottomed at 30 or something.....while stocks put in a top. If we go into an environment where you have low energy prices (lower costs), Crappy equity performance, MOAR QE.....I think you are looking at a setup for a massive miner outperformance.....for a while... I know miners aren't worth the risk - it is just greed for more money, but it may be worth a gamble to goose the portfolio a bit.....in 2010/11 miners got smoked compared to the metal....and over the last 15 years, miners have severely underperformed the metals for 11 of those years.....from the market low in late 2000, miners outperformed metals 4:1 for three straight years...this peaked in early 2004, where since then, you would have been much better off swapping all miners for metal....From the low of late 2000 to now, 2015, the hui to gold ratio is EXACTLY the same, currently at 0.15......if history is any guide, we see miners outperform for a while....then underperform for a very long while....and Maloney is likely right...

J.P. Cubish
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:00am

Dream

Just awoke from a dream Eric Sprott had passed away.

usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:00am

Some action right now in both location

Police is intervening in both locations right now.

AGAU
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:01am

Charts

The Kitco chart from yesterday is almost the same profile probably using the same algorithm ?

looks like we end up around 16.30 AG 1210. AU today ( short of a blowout)

Mickey
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:01am

summary of this week in equities

down monday and tuesday-

Tuesday night I think it was then (evans spoke about no interest rate rise)

Markets up Wedensday and Thursday.

Friday great jobs report headline number--everything else sucks--market sees thru it and sells off..

whats in store for the rest of today--I say dow closes green-fed buys a few hundred es contracts and turns the market up.

The issue is it just one team working on this so they might forget metals, or do they have dedicated es and gold and silver and mineer and currency and oil teams?

pretty soon they have so many plates up on sticks (those old enuf remember the ed sullivan show) the plates start falling.

Orange
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:01am
usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:22am
usk
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:24am

The terrorist in Vincennes has been killed

Policemen wounded. No reports about the hostages yet.

matt_
Jan 9, 2015 - 11:33am

@realitybiter

I'm still a buyer, for what it is worth.

In my personal account, I sold oil stocks I own on the last day of the year and put the proceeds into more miners. I bought more miners earlier this week. I'm now 100% in gold miners. I look like a genius for now, but I know it won't last if history is a guide.

SteveW CPE
Jan 9, 2015 - 12:17pm

CPE: Islamic Inbreeding

Sounds like illogical hate speech to me.

Closer inbreeding was practiced by the frequent sibling marriages among the Pharaohs of ancient Egypt, while first cousin marriages are not prohibited among Christians.

I expect more hate speech and propaganda from both sides to whip up a religious war that has that has been used to define an enemy since that fall of the Soviet Union.

Adam29
Jan 9, 2015 - 12:32pm

Great Interview

I really enjoyed this one, Turd. Would love to hear him again!

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