Out With The Old, In With The Jackass


As we wrap 2014 and head into 2015, what better time to hear again from our old friend, The Golden Jackass himself, Jim Willie.

Just an apology before we get started. Jim and I are both on vacation and away from our usual recording spots. There were a number of signal interruptions as we recorded so I had to take the unusual step of splicing and dicing the interview together. Thus, you're certain to notice that the podcast jumps around a bit. I think overall message still seeps through, however, and that this interview is worthy of your time and attention.

Happy New Year everyone! I look forward to a very interesting 2015...



Dec 31, 2014 - 2:27pm

First to say

Happy New Year!

Dec 31, 2014 - 2:29pm



Dec 31, 2014 - 2:30pm
Dec 31, 2014 - 2:30pm


JackAss on the barbie.

Dec 31, 2014 - 2:44pm


Happy New Year

May gold and I make that much needed rebound to financial success and bring on my 2nd new knee.

Mr. Fix
Dec 31, 2014 - 2:49pm

It's here!

I've been waiting for this one, thank you very much.

 Happy New Year's to each and every one of you, this is a great place to start. smiley

Dec 31, 2014 - 3:10pm
Dec 31, 2014 - 3:27pm

Beat Down

Looks like TPTB are flexing their muscles with an in your face price suppression.

Bastard-rats ! angry

Dec 31, 2014 - 3:30pm

Again, I apologize for the

Again, I apologize for the sketchy production and audio quality. I tried to clean it up the best I could.

Dec 31, 2014 - 3:35pm

Doug Kass’s No 1. Surprise for 2015

Surprise No.1 -- Faith in central bankers is tested (stocks sink and gold soars).

"Investment bubbles and high animal spirits do not materialize out of thin air. They need extremely favorable economic fundamentals together with free and easy, cheap credit and they need it for at least two or three years.

Importantly, they also need serial pleasant surprises in such critical variables as global GNP growth." -- Jeremy Grantham "The highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal. Central banks and markets have been pushing benchmark sovereign yields to extraordinary lows-- unimaginable just a few years back. Three-year government bond yields are well below zero in Germany, around zero in Japan and below 1 per cent in the United States. Moreover, estimates of term premia are pointing south again, with some evolving firmly in negative territory. And as all this is happening, global growth -- in inflation-adjusted terms -- is close to historical averages.

There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine." -- Claudio Borio European QE Backfires: The ECB initiates a sovereign QE in January 2015, but it is modest in scale (relative to expectations) as Germany won't permit a more aggressive strategy. Markets are disappointed with the small size of the ECB's initiative and European banks choose to hold their bonds instead of selling. ECB balance sheet still can't get to 3 trillion euros and the euro actually rallies sharply. Bottom line, QE fails to work (economic growth doesn't accelerate and inflationary expectations don't lift).

Draghi Is Exposed: Mario Draghi is exposed for what he really is: the big kid of which everyone is scared. For some time, no one wanted to fight him (or fade sovereign debt bonds, which would be contra to his policy). But, after the meek January QE, the response changes. He is now seen as the bully who never throws a punch and who always has gotten his way. But at the time of the January QE a medium-sized kid (and a market participant) teases him and Draghi warns him again to stop it. The kid keeps teasing. Draghi the bully takes a swing, it turns out he can't fight and the medium-sized kid whips his butt. From then on, the big kid is feared no more. For some time Draghi has said he will do "whatever it takes," but he never really had to do anything. When he finally gets going and has to act rather than talk, he will expose himself as only a bully and as a weak big kid. Mario Draghi gets fed up with the Germans and returns to Italy (where he was governor of the Bank of Italy between 2006-2011) and becomes the country's president.

Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda Resign: Kuroda, an advocate of looser monetary policy, stays on at the Bank of Japan (for most of the year), but the yen enters freefall to 140 vs. the dollar and wage growth lags badly.

Japanese people have had enough and, by year end, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda are forced to resign. The Fed Is Trapped: The Federal Reserve surprises the markets and hikes the federal funds rate in April 2015. A modest 25-basis-point rise in rates causes such global market turmoil that it is the only hike made all year.

The Federal Reserve is now viewed by market participants as completely trapped, as an ah-ha-moment arrives in which there is limited policy flexibility to cope with a steepening downturn in the business cycle in late 2015/early 2016. Stated simply, the bull market in confidence in the Federal Reserve comes to an abrupt halt. Malinvestment Becomes the It-Word in 2015: Steeped in denial of past mistakes and bathing in the buoyancy of liquidity and the elevation of stock prices in 2014, market participants come to the realization that the world's central bankers in general, and the Fed in particular, once again has taken us down an all-too-familiar and dangerous path that previously set the stage for The Great Decession of 2007-09. It becomes clear that the consequences of unprecedented monetary easing and the repression of interest rates has only invited unproductive investment and speculative carry trades. The impact of a lengthy period of depressed interest rates uncork malinvestment that has percolated and detonates among differing asset classes as the year progresses.

Already seen in the deterioration and heightened volatility in commodities (the price of crude, copper, etc.), in widening spreads in the energy high yield (with yields up to 10% today, compared with only 5% a few months ago) and with the average yield on the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) up to 7% (from a low of 5% earlier in 2014), the consequences of financial engineering (zero-interest-rate policy and quantitative easing) and lack of attention to burgeoning country debt loads and central bankers' balance sheets, in addition to inertia on the fiscal front result in rising volatility in the currency markets. Malinvestment in countries like Brazil (where consumer debt has risen by 8x and export accounts have quintupled over the last eight years on the strength of a peaking export boom, _in oil and iron ore, so dependent on the China infrastructure story that has now ended) translate into a deepening economic crisis in Latin America and in other emerging markets.

Then, EU sovereign debt yields, suppressed so long by Draghi's jawboning, begin to rise. Slowly at first and then more rapidly, EU bond prices fall, putting intense pressure on the entire European banking system. (In his greatest score, George Soros makes $2.5 billion shorting German Bunds). The contagion spreads to other region's financial institutions. Shortly after, social media and high valuation stocks get routed and, ultimately, so does the world's stock markets.

As a result of the influences above, the VIX rises above 30. The price of gold soars to $1,800-$2000 and the precious metal is the best-performing asset class for all of 2015.

Dec 31, 2014 - 3:56pm

US Debt Problem

$18 Trillion US Debt Problem - 40 Clip Movie Mashup

You may have seen this, I hadn't, and thought it was a fun 3 minutes. 


Dec 31, 2014 - 4:16pm


I know you kids playing at home are getting tired of my PSLV updates, but I wanted to provide the latest update as we close out 2014. If you count today as a "weekly" close then PSLV nailed it with the lowest closing price in it's history!! If not, then PSLV closed at its second lowest daily close EVER. In either case, as an investment vehicle, this has been one complete disaster. If you had decided on ANY day in the last 3 years to start a SHORT on PSLV you would be in the money. ANY DAY!!

I simply cannot reconcile in my head how 40+ million ASE's sold two years running, solar systems growing on a global scale, iProducts in everyone's home, pocket and car and yet the miners can't figure out how to sell their product at a profit.

This is not manipulation, this is not government sponsored smackdowns, this is bad asset management on the part of CEO's in this sector. And they're not alone. We saw the home builders build houses as if the population would double every two years. We've seen oil producers in ND drill wells as if everyone could drive 4 cars at once. Now we have Fortuna ramping up production in 2015 to bring even more ounces of silver to market!! You can't make this stuff up.

Part of any successful business is developing a product, taking that product to market and selling at a profitable price. Apple does this. Microsoft does this. Macy's does this. The miners do not. The miners, like the oil producers, simply ran over the market with supply. How do I know this? Turd himself has said "metal must be delivered at these prices to validate COMEX prices". Today, whether we care or not, plenty of real physical silver changed hands at sub $16 an ounce. Why pay more if you have willing sellers at these prices???

Dr. P. Metals
Dec 31, 2014 - 4:20pm


very well said, and welcome to the "shill" club! laugh

Dec 31, 2014 - 4:20pm


....Most of my PM stocks were green on the day. 

Dr. P. Metals
Dec 31, 2014 - 4:22pm

And can we put a muzzle on these now?

Re: "The price of gold soars to $1,800-$2000 and the precious metal is the best-performing asset class for all of 2015."

Now where oh where have we heard that before, repeatedly, pray tell?

Dec 31, 2014 - 4:31pm

JW was on a roll today

The Jackass was absolutly GOLDEN in this podcast!

Best ever

4 oz
Dec 31, 2014 - 4:32pm

The America Jim was born into

The America Jim was born into is long gone---

Dean Friedman - Ariel
Dec 31, 2014 - 4:33pm

@ Dr. P. Metals

I know, Dr. P., I know :-) But it's the fact that the theme of loss of confidence in CB's accompanied by rising interest rates is beginning to show up in the 'narrative' that I find interesting. The reason that "there ain't no fever like gold fever" is because it is simultaneously driven by BOTH greed and fear :-)

Dec 31, 2014 - 4:35pm

and can silver weigh back in

at 50$for the year while gold is at 2K !!!

Dec 31, 2014 - 6:01pm

JPM Derivatives Book: Who’s Zooming Who?

JPM Derivatives Book: Who’s Zooming Who?

By Catherine Austin Fitts on December 22, 2014

Sometimes I have a profound sense of being ignored.

Actually, I am not being ignored. Rather, I live among caring, well educated Americans with a profound desire to NOT fathom the reality in which we live.

I empathize. I shared the same desire once upon a time. I was forced by circumstances to want to know. Once you leave a limited picture of reality behind, there is no turning back.

I know many fine people who do not want to know. I remember one colleague who asked me to explain why I knew the economy was going to slow burn. I started to explain the control mechanisms that are the backbone of the matrix that manages the slow burn. He quickly said, “Stop. I don’t want to know. If I listen to this, I will lose my hope and faith. I will give up.” He continued to predict the future based on his “official reality” which, of course, did not work out very well.

So I continued to predict that the US economy would not collapse, but rather slow burn by harvesting a vast variety of constituencies using a complex array of invisible, unspoken control files and mechanisms.

I know numerous colleagues who did not believe me about the extent of the collateral fraud, even with $27 trillion of bailouts, more than 3 multiples of what it would cost to extinguish all residential mortgages.

I long gave up trying to explain to anyone other than my subscribers the extent of the digital surveillance by public and private intelligence agencies. Only Mr Global’s air cover for Edward Snowden and Glen Greenwald’s detailed description made it socially acceptable to engage in open discussion. Even then I discovered it was difficult for many people to fathom what could be done without paying humans to do the surveillance – with digital systems, relational databases interconnected across thousands of platforms, and artificial intelligence.

Invisible technology and weaponry is indeed hard to fathom, particularly for people who can not fathom why someone would want to do such things to another human being.

Each day I read another financial commentator who says that markets are ignoring “the fundamentals.” Except their notion of the fundamentals is based on a socially respectable, limited “official reality.” If I encourage them to integrate an analysis of the black budget and the “breakaway civilization,” they refuse to “go there.” They are stuck, growing ever more cynical.

rest of article...https://solari.com/blog/jpm-derivatives-book-whos-zooming-who/

Dec 31, 2014 - 6:11pm

Finally Someone is Saying

No Wars, good on you Jim Willie as I'm tired of hearing the fear mongering from the all the Gurus. Your the man Jim W. Happy Hogmanay and Keep Stacking

Fred Hayek
Dec 31, 2014 - 6:14pm

Good interview, Turd. Happy New Year to you and the Jackass!

I have to confess to my fellow turdites that I've been watching a bit of CNBS over the past week, what with days off. Not a lot, maybe a half hour total among three or four shows.

Now, of course, days off don't mean that one must watch the financial falsehood factory. But I must admit a certain morbid curiosity, at times, about these idiots. One axis of curiosity is the natural puzzle to be solved as to whether the folks at CNBS are evil or are they stupid? A second focus of curiosity is to note attitudes. Staff on CNBS don't much care at all about fundamentals. Everything is a trade. Nothing is an investment. The goal is almost always how the CNBS viewer can try to stay ahead of the next dunce. 

Another focus of curiosity in watching CNBS is to see what open logical contradiction they put forth next. A recent favorite was that, about 2-3 weeks ago, when the U.S. stock market was dipping a few percent (GASP!) the staff of CNBS was saying that this otherwise impossible drop was the result of . . . plunging oil prices. The attention span of a CNBS viewer (the few of them left) was revealed last week, when the reason given for the skyrocketing U.S. stock market was . . . (I kid you not) plunging oil prices!

Reading and listening to falsehoods does not lead you to truth but it can sharpen your hold on truth and the bountiful provision of unintentional comedy can be quite entertaining.

Dec 31, 2014 - 6:39pm

Podcast Sound Quality

I did notice some strange (i.e. ghost-like, zoo animal like, alien like,...) sounds in the background. My guess is that JW's roommates were telling him to hurry up and finish the podcast so they could all go grab some dinner :-)

edit: FWIW I could listen to JW all day, he definitely makes one think 'outside the box'

Fred Hayek
Dec 31, 2014 - 6:56pm

@TasSTL, I'm sorry, could you please point me to . . .

Could you please point me to the futures market where thousands of contracts to sell $80,000 worth of apple products are dumped on the market in minutes each day? Or, failing that, the one where thousands of contracts to sell $80,000 of microsoft items are dumped on the market in minutes each day? Or the one where crappy Macy's gets that same treatment?

I don't think they exist. And if I'm correct that they don't exist then reproaching silver miners for not getting a fair price for their product like those three companies is at least silly and at worst dishonest argument.

Dec 31, 2014 - 7:24pm

Forgive If Already Posted

Courtesy of our friend Ned Naylor-Leyland via Twitter. Well worth the five minutes to watch. Hope 2015 is good for all. Oink.

Adam Curtis - Oh Dear
Dr. P. Metals
Dec 31, 2014 - 7:28pm


I believe Tas's main point was that silver is STILL being produced EN MASSE even at these "low" prices...there is no "shortage"!

Dec 31, 2014 - 7:40pm

@Fred Hayek

You pose the question, are people at CNBS stupid or evil? Might I suggest that they are not stupid, they are willfully ignorant. And willful ignorance is evil.

The truth does not require our belief in it to exist, but thankfully in Turdville, I am surrounded by those who believe in the seeking of truth.

Happy New Year Turdville.

Dec 31, 2014 - 7:58pm
Dec 31, 2014 - 7:58pm

Silver production

So what should I do with my lead/zinc mine? Just throw away the small amount of silver that comes with it as not being worth selling?

Dec 31, 2014 - 8:14pm


How can JW be so adamant about no nuclear war while alluding to the fact that our government is preparing for just that with underground cities?

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