TFMR Podcast - Saturday, November 29


There are certainly some signs that we once again stand near the edge of the precipice. Therefore, I thought I'd just make this podcast immediately public.

It's not that this podcast is full of incredible analysis or earth-shattering information. It just seems to me that the world might be once again barreling toward financial crisis. Since there are likely quite a few visitors to this site who sense the same, I simply felt like I should make this podcast public.

For today, we discuss these charts. First, crude:

Then these three GOFO items:

And then these four charts of gold and silver:

Finally, please be sure you've read both of these ZH links:

Here's a sample of some anti-SGI propaganda:

And, potentially worst of all, make sure you've seen this from back on Thursday:

I hope you enjoy your weekend,



Nov 30, 2014 - 3:43am

U.S. Public Debt Will Hit $18 Trillion on December 9th

Sometime in the next two to three weeks, the total public debt outstanding for the U.S. government will exceed 18 trillion dollars. If you were to ask us to pin down a precise date, we would say sometime around December 9, 2014, given the rate at which the national debt has been increasing during the federal government’s current fiscal year.

Since the start of the U.S. federal government’s 2015 fiscal year on October 1, 2014, the national debt has grown at an average rate of $2.08 billion per day.

If it helps put these very large numbers into a more human scale, when the U.S. national debt reaches $18 trillion, that will work out to be about $124,275 per U.S. household, which is up from $81,984 per U.S. household at the end of the 2008 fiscal year. And the new figure would be on top of your mortgage, car loans, student loans, credit cards, et cetera that you might also have.

James CrightonJ Y
Nov 30, 2014 - 2:18am

reply to JY896

Thanks for your post JY. What I find even more interesting is a question that arises from your observations: who has the power to control and orchestrate blanket and simultaneous news-covereage that advantages themselves? Only the Rothschilds - who own (indirectly of course) ALL mainstream media - including Reuters, API, Assoiated Press, etc.

We live in a World controlled by the very epitome of evil people...................

boomer sooner
Nov 30, 2014 - 1:55am
Nov 30, 2014 - 1:49am

We are on the edge of

We are on the edge of history, or not. Tomorrow we will know. Good night.

Nov 29, 2014 - 11:53pm

Oil derivatives

I notice that Turd's angst over markets is NOT due to the possibility of a Comex failure in metals, but regarding the derivative contracts on oil trading. I'd sure love one of our experienced traders give us a primer on these kinds of derivatives. Are we talking about option contracts on futures? or is their something else altogether?

Provident's premium on 100 ounce .999 generic bars is a mere 53 cents per oz? How can there be a shortage?

As someone pointed out earlier today, the premium on ASEs is only $2.39. But they are paying over spot if you sell to them... In fact they are paying over spot for almost everything you sell to them... How can there not be some shortages?

Dry powder ready. Calm drag on the cigarette. Poncho thrown back over shoulder. Fingers itchy. Waiting for Monday's open for another morning smackdown.

Nov 29, 2014 - 10:45pm

US wheat nears 5-month top as Russia tightens export rules

CHICAGO: US wheat futures climbed to their highest in nearly five months on Friday, supported by news that Russia, a major global wheat supplier, was tightening its grain export rules, traders said.

Soybeans fell nearly 3 percent as soymeal declined on talk of softening cash meal values. Corn also sagged on a day when US crude oil tumbled 10 percent after OPEC's decision a day earlier not to cut output.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, most-active March wheat settled up 15-3/4 cents at .78-1/2 per bushel in a shortened session following the Thanksgiving holiday. The spot December contract ended at .77-1/4 after reaching .79-1/4, the highest spot price since June 30.

Russia's Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance Service (VPSS) said it was toughening rules for grain exports, a move that the agency said could lead to a drop in exports.

A deputy agriculture minister said on Thursday there was no need to consider any grain export regulation for now, but added that Russia could consider imposing a floating tariff on grain exports as a measure of last resort in 2015.

Russian grain exports have been booming, boosted by a near record crop and a plunge in the value of the rouble currency. The pace of sales has fueled speculation the government might take steps to curb exports to make sure it has enough grain for domestic use.

"Russia could be in the beginning stages of a currency crisis because of the (fall in) crude oil," said Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics in Atchison, Kansas, adding, "They have to keep wheat as a primary force in trying to limit inflation."

J.P. Cubish
Nov 29, 2014 - 10:26pm
Nov 29, 2014 - 10:09pm


Good work, Turd.

Really. Good. Work.

Thanks. All the best.

Nov 29, 2014 - 9:55pm


3, 4 or 5 years ago, Harvey Organ was interviewed by Eric King on KWN ...

Harvey told a story of how he wanted to see the silver bars his dad had stored at the Scooch (Scotiabank in Toronto). Harvey told a great tale about the difficulties getting inside the vault to see the bars. Once he got there, he broke the tremendous news that Scooch had practically nothing there ...

I was sceptical of the story then, and I never read any of his stuff. (Over the years I bought from the Scooch and they always had gold/silver for sale.)

I've been around too long witnessing the deceits, and one constant has been it continues. That is why I think NOTHING will come out of the Swiss referendum.

There are so many black swans flying about, I just hope one of them lands very soon!

J.P. Cubish
Nov 29, 2014 - 9:49pm

This was your best podcast ever

Up until now, it was your very first podcast. I left a note on that one remarking how I felt like I had gotten to get to know you better on that one. I have this vision of the gold market exploding and you get 10, ooo momo chaser subscribers. In the vision you keep doing the podcast, because it yields $1,000,000 (an ounce) a month just to read the COT report and make a few snide comments. Its not the same.

You should of been there man, it was amazing!

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

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