TFMR Podcast - Saturday, November 29

120

There are certainly some signs that we once again stand near the edge of the precipice. Therefore, I thought I'd just make this podcast immediately public.

It's not that this podcast is full of incredible analysis or earth-shattering information. It just seems to me that the world might be once again barreling toward financial crisis. Since there are likely quite a few visitors to this site who sense the same, I simply felt like I should make this podcast public.

For today, we discuss these charts. First, crude:

Then these three GOFO items:

And then these four charts of gold and silver:

Finally, please be sure you've read both of these ZH links:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-28/gold-shortage-worst-21st-centu...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-29/federal-reserve-confirms-bigge...

Here's a sample of some anti-SGI propaganda: https://bigstory.ap.org/article/59282b3bc1db4cec924db1ca5970428d/swiss-v...

And, potentially worst of all, make sure you've seen this from back on Thursday: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-27/nato-deploy-tanks-eastern-euro...

I hope you enjoy your weekend,

TF

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J SiefertG-Rod
Nov 30, 2014 - 7:47am

SGI

@G-Rod

Up till now they have only counted 6 Cantons. But that should be enough plus/minus 2 or 3 percent.

G-Rod
Nov 30, 2014 - 7:39am

OK then

SGI rejected = business as usual.

Thanks guys for breaking the news here.

ivars
Nov 30, 2014 - 7:36am

@G-Rod

Its just exit polls; voting has already ended at 12:00 Swiss time ( now its 1:35 pm there) ; Most of voting has been done by mail on previous days.

G-Rod
Nov 30, 2014 - 7:33am

Ivars

How do they count the votes by mid day?

J Siefert
Nov 30, 2014 - 7:31am

First Gold-Initiative Results

It looks like being a big "NO".

First calculation says 78% No.

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz-abstimmungen-30-11-2014

ivars
Nov 30, 2014 - 7:22am

Gold OPEC moment as it unfolds

Quote:
The proposal stipulating theSwiss National Bank hold at least 20 percent of its 520-billion-franc ($540 billion) balance sheet in gold was voted down, according to projections by Swiss television SRF as of 12:30 p.m. local time. The initiative “Save Our Swiss Gold” also would have prohibited the SNB from ever selling any of its bullion and required the 30 percent currently stored inCanada and the U.K. to be repatriated. Polls, including one by gfs.bern, forecast the initiative’s rejection.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/swiss-voters-reject-snb-gold-referendum-srf-projections-show.html

The referendum has already ended at 11:00 GMT.

OPEC decision on oil was also priced in, but decision to keep output intact caused 10% further slide in oil price .

ivars
Nov 30, 2014 - 4:37am

Since institution of FED,

Since institution of FED, average 10% treasury yearly yield has been 4,91%. Not sure if average yield of all debt notes is the same, but could be close ( depends on yield and share of bond in total debt).

Assignats which were backed 100% with liquid current assets of France and were used to finance wars lasted very much exactly 6 years:

According to Thomas Paine , who correctly predicted in 1796 that Britains currency will collapse in 1797 , average life time of paper currency ( with or without fractional gold support) is (since its based on FUTURE liquid assets to be bought with it- it has leverage built into system as only 4,91% of current liquid assets serves as base for total 100% high power money supply=USA debt) :

(100%/Average interest rate)* 6 =x

Since Britain was forced off gold standard in 1797, and Bank of England was established in 1694, one can calculate back that average interest rate England paid on its bonds over 103 year period were ( x=103) :

100%*6/103= 5,82%

Given 4,91%, if no dramatic changes in average rate happens, USD can last

(100%/4,91%)*6= 122 years or till 1913+122= 2035 or another 20 years.

If with latest financial techniques rate suppression will continue and stay below 4,91%, it could last approximately 10 years more or till 2045.

This all indicates that its premature to write down USD already now; but that in 2035-2045 we are going to see battle- most like;y between USA and China ( Rocks and Roths into final stretch) about the monetary ( and so total) dominance over the world.

It could be, as in England's case, that USA wins and USD stays; but history tells that once power has started to move in one direction its unstoppable, so China will win.

In any case total demise of USD is still far away; of course, according to Rock Roth agreement in the meantime it will share part of monetary reserve sphere with yuan since 2021, later-about 2026- also with Germany ( EUR?) and India, so there will be a temporary Tetrarchy of monetary centers which will be swept away by China latest by 2050.

wildstylechef
Nov 30, 2014 - 4:09am
wildstylechef
Nov 30, 2014 - 4:04am

this might be the bottom for oil

RSI HAS NEVER BEEN THIS LOW

wildstylechef
Nov 30, 2014 - 3:52am

Ponzi: Treasury Issues $1T in New Debt in 8 Weeks—To Pay Old Deb

The Daily Treasury Statement that was released Wednesday afternoon as Americans were preparing to celebrate Thanksgiving revealed that the U.S. Treasury has been forced to issue $1,040,965,000,000 in new debt since fiscal 2015 started just eight weeks ago in order to raise the money to pay off Treasury securities that were maturing and to cover new deficit spending by the government.

During those eight weeks, Treasury took in $341,591,000,000 in revenues. That was a record for the period between Oct. 1 and Nov. 25. But that record $341,591,000,000 in revenues was not enough to finance ongoing government spending let alone pay off old debt that matured.

The Treasury also drew down its cash balance by $45.057 billion during the period, starting with $126,568,000,000 in cash and ending with $81,511,000,000.

The only way the Treasury could handle the $942,103,000,000 in old debt that matured during the period plus finance the new deficit spending the government engaged in was to roll over the old debt into new debt and issue enough additional new debt to cover the new deficit spending.

This mode of financing the federal government resembles what the Securities and Exchange Commission calls a Ponzi scheme. “A Ponzi scheme," says the Securities and Exchange Commission, “is an investment fraud that involves the payment of purported returns to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors,” says the Securities and Exchange Commission.

“With little or no legitimate earnings, the schemes require a consistent flow of money from new investors to continue,” explains the SEC. “Ponzi schemes tend to collapse when it becomes difficult to recruit new investors or when a large number of investors ask to cash out.”

In testimony before the Senate Finance Committee in October 2013, Lew explained why he wanted the Congress to agree to increase the federal debt limit—and why the Treasury has no choice but to constantly issue new debt.

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