JB and SFC Discuss Ukraine Crisis


Now that the election in Ukraine and the Donetsk People's Republic are over, what happens next? Is it back to "normal" or does the tenuous cease fire hang in the balance?

For a full update, including a discussion of the temporary natural gas agreement that lasts only through December, please give this podcast a thorough listen.



Nov 5, 2014 - 1:18pm
Nov 5, 2014 - 1:28pm

Not First, but not Turd either

I guess Soros is shorting the Ruble.

Nov 5, 2014 - 1:59pm

Geopolitical bombs away

Thanks Turd, it is easy to forget this when one is too focused on PMs

thurd aye
Nov 5, 2014 - 2:07pm


. Got my spot,see ? thurd is thurd and ever moreshall be so.

Its only paper prices falling.all my ounces and kilos are safely tucked up in bed.

doh! now you know where I hides em.


Nov 5, 2014 - 2:13pm

Slightly off topic, but important...

NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Mint said on Wednesday it has temporarily sold out of its American Eagle silver bullion coins following "tremendous" demand in the past several weeks.

In a statement sent to its biggest U.S. coin wholesalers, the U.S. Mint says it will continue to produce 2014-dated coins. The Mint will advise when additional inventory will become available for sale without providing further details.

The announcement has not been made available to the public, but a U.S. Mint spokesman confirmed that it has sent the statement to its authorized participants.

A sharp break in gold prices to their lowest in more than four years last week has unleashed a surge in demand for silver and gold coins in North America and Europe.


Urban Roman
Nov 5, 2014 - 2:16pm

It used to be Bush's fault

But now it's Putin's fault.

(shamelessly repeated from a ZH thread, ..)

TreeTop Dweller
Nov 5, 2014 - 2:47pm

Russia may ban circulation of US dollar

gotta be true, i found it on the internet...

Russia may ban circulation of US dollar

The State Duma has been submitted a relevant bill

Moscow. Farid Akbarov – APA. Russia may ban the circulation of the United States dollar.

The State Duma has already been submitted a relevant bill banning and terminating the circulation of USD in Russia, APA’s Moscow correspondent reports.

If the bill is approved, Russian citizens will have to close their dollar accounts in Russian banks within a year and exchange their dollars in cash to Russian ruble or other countries’ currencies.

Otherwise their accounts will be frozen and cash dollars levied by police, customs, tax, border, and migration services confiscated.

After the law enters into force, it will be impossible to obtain cash dollar in Russia. The ban or termination of the US dollar will not apply to the exchange operations carried out by Russian Central Bank, the Russian government, ministries of foreign affairs and defense, the Foreign Intelligence Service and the Federal Security Service.


Nov 5, 2014 - 2:56pm

Russian Gas - Ukraine Payments

Stephen mentions the recent agreement on the nat gas situation.

What I find very interesting, and I don't hear anyone talking about it, is the fact that Ukraine is so backed up in payments for nat gas that they've already used and WHY haven't they been paying?

Ukraine’s Naftogaz (state-own oil and natural gas company) buys gas from Russian, then sells it to its' customers, both corporate/manufacturers and consumer (home heating) as well as government entities. So have all these customers stopped paying their gas bills? Or did the Ukraine government steal this money flow, and give Russia the big middle finger?


So now Europe is funding this corruption? And Ukraine is such a great "prize" to obtain? Really?

Nov 5, 2014 - 3:20pm


I wrote about it in May, so -- here it is. I think that they change the terms.


Submitted by Bohemian on May 14, 2014 - 11:23pm.

"Professor Stephen F. Cohen is one of the world's foremost experts on Russian history and Russian studies."

I was listening the first 10 minutes, up to the moment when he is talking about Ukraine not wanting to pay right now and asking some big discount -- and he, being a bit sarcastic, is mentioning the "free market" issue, how the pricing is done. I think he is wrong. Well, he is wrong --

Gazprom stated that it will interrupt the gas supply to Ukraine on June 2, unless Ukraine pays its debt to Gazprom. Gazprom asks $3,51 Billion. Jurij Prodan, the head of the Ukraine's DOE, said, that Ukraine can’t pay this amount right now in full, considering the price that Gazprom is right now charging Ukraine. The Ukraine’s Naftogaz submitted to Gazprom several offers, options, trying to deal with this issue, but Gazprom didn’t respond. Moscow doesn’t want to deal with this government, right? They would just say: "Pay, and that's it." So, what are they charging for gas right now?

In 2009, Julia Timoshenko signed a deal with Moscow, that Ukraine would buy a FIXED amount of gas per year, no matter if they would need more or less; let’s say — they could have a mild winter, but according to this agreement, the supply was fixed for the price $485 (1000 cubic meters). It was the highest price in Europe.

Then, Janukovich won the elections, Timoshenko was sent to the jail, and Janukovich REFUSED the Association agreement with the EU. It was about the possible future EU membership. As a “thank you”, I guess, Gazprom/Moscow lowered the price of gas to $268.5 !!! Do you see some -- free market pricing mechanism here? I don't.

So, what about now? Well, Moscow doesn’t want to deal with this government and went back to the agreement from 2009, signed by Timoshenko, the fixed supply of the most expensive gas in Europe: $485.

Nov 5, 2014 - 3:23pm

Money creation to be discussed in UK parliament 20th

Contact an MP, FWIW?


What might reasonably be expected to happen if these proposals were implemented?


I'll put a copy on the forum if anyone's interested to discuss further.

Money creation to be discussed in UK parliament

Nov 5, 2014 - 4:29pm

Silver Eagles in the UK

I have just checked at four dealers the prices of SE. If I wanted to buy 5 coins, the price would vary from $26 to $30 per coin with postage included. Canadian Maples would cost about $29 per coin,

Bohemian elpicador
Nov 5, 2014 - 4:47pm

RE: Silver Eagles in the UK

You're right. I was checking several dealers in the EU, various countries, and at this point, the most common price for SE would be $27, shipped.

That's including VAT, postage and insurance, for smaller number of coins. Quite a different story it would be, if one would try to locate and buy SEs from 2009, 2010, 2011....

Nov 5, 2014 - 5:40pm

Silver Eagles in Brazil

Work has been bringing me to Brazil for several weeks at a time over the past several months and sentiment here is very different than the US.

Hypothetically speaking rolls of silver eagles, maples, and/or phils that are brought down sell for between 575 and 700 usd. at open air markets to coin and currency vendors who are selling them individually for 40 to 50(usd equivalent) each.

Pays for caipirinhas!

Putin DeSafe
Nov 5, 2014 - 5:42pm


My (large) dealer has them and price is still cheaper than maple.

So It Goes
Nov 5, 2014 - 6:14pm

Hope and change

This is just too effing perfect:

Video unavailable
Nov 5, 2014 - 10:17pm

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Harvey's Up! https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/626643#comment-626643

  • SilverDoctors: The US Mint has just issued an alert to Primary Dealers across the US that Silver Eagle inventories, which according to the Mint began today at over 2 million ounces, are now SOLD OUT as of 12:30pm EST. The Mint has reportedly sold through over 2 million ounces in less than 2 hours! It appears that the $15.50 level was the line that broke the camel’s back regarding physical inventories, as physical demand has simply EXPLODED on this morning’s futures dip below $15.20. At approximately 1pm EST, one of the largest Primary Dealers in the US issued a notice to all purchasers that premiums for ANY PREVIOUSLY PLACED PURCHASES FOR SILVER EAGLES ARE NO LONGER VALID! This is simply unprecedented! DS: There's a good chance that if you waited till now to back up the truck, your truck is coming away close to empty. When I was at the bullion dealer's store Monday, the associate informed me that they are out of 90% and out of generic rounds. I had to resort to buying heavy silver necklaces to get any bullion at a decent price. They really don't know when they will get restocked. Reports are that there is a 2-3 week delay, and now SilverDoctors say the distributors are renegotiating purchases already in the pipeline. That is grim.
  • Mark O'Byrne: Maple Leaf silver coins are difficult to acquire according to bullion dealers, with the Royal Canadian Mint on allocation from September. There is a concern that supply times will increase and premiums are likely to jump according to Reuters. “A tumble in silver prices to four-year lows has triggered a global scramble by consumers to purchase silver coins and bars, as the spread between the price of the metal and gold reaches its widest in five years. Retailers and distributors in Asia and the United States said they were struggling to get supplies of items such as Canadian Maple Leaf silver coins. While demand for silver has been strong over the last few months, retailers say buying interest soared in recent days as the metal fell towards its lowest since 2010, along with gold. Demand for silver coins and bars accounted for more than a fifth of total demand in 2013, according to a report by the Silver Institute. A sustained jump in demand should support silver prices, currently at just over $15 an ounce. The price of silver is currently around 74 times cheaper than gold – the biggest spread since early 2009. Due to its greater affordability, silver sales tend to outstrip gold in volume terms and attract a lot more retail buyers. The Royal Canadian mint had started allocating, an industry term meaning rationing, its popular Maple Leaf silver coins in September in response to high demand, according to a spokesman. With the allocation of silver coins in place, the mint continues to produce and take orders for 2014 coins with no anticipated stoppage in shipments, he said. But retailers are already finding it hard to get hold of the mint’s products as they sell out their existing stock. Some Asian dealers said they have had to pull Maple Leaf coins from their lineup until they get the mint’s 2015 products.
  • A. Anathalakshmi: A tumble in silver prices to four-year lows has triggered a global scramble by consumers to purchase silver coins and bars as the metal has reached its cheapest level relative to gold in more than five years. Retailers and distributors in Asia and the United States said they were struggling to get supplies of items such as Canadian Maple Leaf silver coins. Demand for silver has been strong over the past few months, but retailers say buying interest has soared in recent days as the metal has slid towards its lowest since 2010. "Silver Maples are being snapped up by U.S. and Asian buyers as the premiums are lower than for silver Eagles. Silver Philharmonics continue to be popular in Europe as they too are cheaper than Eagles, with a similar premium to Maples," GoldCore said. "Supply of silver from some mints has been delayed," said Brian Lan, managing director of Singapore-based retailer GoldSilver Central. "Demand had not been great early this year, so they had reduced production capacity and manpower. When there was a spike, they were caught off guard," Lan said. In September the Royal Canadian Mint started allocating, an industry term meaning rationing, its Maple Leaf silver coins in response to high demand, according to a spokesman.
  • Liezel Hill and Kevin Crowley: As gold prices fell 4.7 percent last week, the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Global Gold Sector Index of 40 producers plunged 16 percent. About a third of worldwide output is probably cash-flow negative with gold at less than $1,250 an ounce, according to Joe Wickwire, who manages the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio. Gold futures fell 1.9 percent to settle at $1,145.70 an ounce. The S&P/TSX gold index declined 4.3 percent to the lowest since November 2001. There are producers making money at current prices. In the third quarter, so-called all-in sustaining cash costs were $834 an ounce for Toronto-based Barrick and $711 for Englewood, Colorado-based Alacer Gold Corp. The measurement includes the expense of mining and replacing reserves through exploration, as well as other costs like corporate expenses. Not all mining companies calculate this figure the same way, and not all companies report it. The reckoning began in 2012. Several CEOs, including those of Barrick and Kinross Gold Corp., were fired, and the industry took more than $26 billion of writedowns after prices declined in 2013. While gold miners might have been optimistic that higher prices would finally lift earnings, the metal has fallen again. It’s about 40 percent lower its peak three years ago. It fell last week by the most since September 2013 as the U.S. dollar strengthened, after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly boosted stimulus and the Federal Reserve ended asset purchases.
  • Ashley Armstrong: Shares in Peter Hambro’s Russian mining business jumped by almost 20 percent after it emerged that a consortium fronted by Oleg Deripaska’s right-hand man was attempting to gatecrash its rights issue plans. The London-listed gold miner Petropavlovsk, set up as Peter Hambro Mining in 1994, is the second biggest gold producer in Russia but has suffered as the price of the yellow metal has tumbled, dragging the company’s share price down 65 percent so far this year. Petropavlovsk announced in September that it was in discussions with lenders about a restructuring and rights issue to service an expensive debt pile taken on at the peak of the gold boom. If the company fails to do so, it could breach its banking covenants next month and $310 million worth of convertible bonds would mature, which could lead to its going bust.
  • Dave Kraznler (IRD): People, this is a 5yr daily data series. https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GOLD1.png It would be hard to create a data pool with better statistical correlation characteristics using a 99% confidence interval. It shows the behavior, on average of the price of gold over the last five years on a daily basis. There can be no mistake that the price of gold trades at a higher price level during the Asian trading hours than it does during the London/NY trading hours. Even more significantly, there can be no argument that the price of gold is manipulated lower going into the “benchmark” price setting London price “fix” operations.
  • Dave Hodges: Yesterday, John Moore released the following: “…Yesterday, (11/3/2014) my source was in the company of a high level (CEO level) oil executive with 50+ years experience in the oil industry. My source was a non-participant in listening to conversation between the oil executive and a third party who also has decades of experience in the oil industry.The topic of the conversation was these two men pondering why none of the US oil refineries had any inventories of crude oil in inventory to be refined into finished product.They had no answer. My source and I pondered this as well. My initial conclusion that this is an attempt to artificially create a shortage to increase prices, I have since rejected. Upon further reflection, I now conclude that the simple answer is the correct answer: They don’t have crude oil because they won’t need crude oil. As it turns out, my source, independent of me, came to the same conclusion. The next step in this matter is: why won’t they be refining oil? In that regard, my source hopes to have a follow-up conversation with the oil executive in the next 48 hours. In a brief 5 minute conversation, just prior to going on the air Sunday night, Paul Martin told me that Ebola is going to be released in a widespread manner and that many of the elite, with prior knowledge, are leaving the country. Two years ago, I had my own brush with these types of revelations as I had a friend retire from FEMA and move to his bug out location. My friend had told me that America was likely to witness bioterror attacks with pathogens that the “the world has never seen”. In the past three days, broadcast colleagues, quoting their sources, are relating very similar stories. Most of these revelation center around citizen roundups and forcible “prolonged” detention in a camp in response to some crisis. Certainly, Ebola provides that backdrop as I have reported on Human Health Services “ambulance contracts” designed to transport Ebola victims and those people exposed to Ebola and transport them to a FEMA camp. I am told that by two of my best and current sources that all options are on the table, but that I am correct in being concerned with mass detentions which they both believe to be a goal that will be a part of whatever comes.



Safety Dan
Nov 6, 2014 - 12:08am

Ridiculous figures coming out

Ridiculous figures coming out of WHO showing the cumulative death rate DROPPING by nearly 500 over the last week in Sierra Leone.

31st October: 5338 infections, 1510 deaths
5th November: 4759 infections, 1070 deaths

According to these latest figures the death rate is only about 20% of infections, not the 50% - 70% generally accepted for this outbreak.

31st October; https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137424/1/roadmapsitrep_31Oct201...
5th November: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137510/1/roadmapsitrep_5Nov14_e...

What BS.

RT reported a few days ago that Ebola in Sierra Leone is drastically underreported. Entire villages have disappeared and are not in the official statistics:


Nov 05, 2014: North Carolina Five people being monitored for Ebola
Nov 04, 2014: Greensboro, North Carolina, US: Two Patients Monitored For Ebola
Nov 04, 2014: Raleigh, North Carolina, US: 3 in quarantine aimed to keep public calm over Ebola
Nov 04, 2014: Trenton, NJ, US: A dozen travelers being monitored for Ebola
Nov 04, 2014: Oregon, Medford, US: Person monitored for Ebola
Nov 03, 2014: Uganda, Africa: Three Ugandans in isolation after Ebola-like Marburg virus death
Nov 03, 2014: Portland, OR: Not 3, but 5 people in Oregon being monitored for Ebola
Nov 03, 2014: Turkey: An Egyptian member of ship crew hospitalized with suspected Ebola
Nov 03, 2014: Raleigh, NC, USA: Liberian traveler initially tests negative for Ebola
Nov 02, 2014: Portland, OR: Ebola ruled out for patient in Milwaukie hospital
Nov 02, 2014: Portland, Oregon Update: Liberian woman no longer has fever, but…
Nov 01, 2014: Vietnam: Man returning from Guinea suspected Ebola case
Nov 01, 2014: East Java: Patient suspected of having Ebola hospitalized in Madiun, East Java
Nov 01, 2014: Minnesota: Did you know that your state is monitoring 30 people for ebola?


Safety Dan
Nov 6, 2014 - 12:08am
Nov 6, 2014 - 3:30am
Nov 6, 2014 - 6:33am

Russian Ruble Hits All-Time

Russian Ruble Hits All-Time Low as Support Reduced

17 hours ago

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's ruble hit an all-time low on Wednesday after the country's central bank said it would dial back its support for the struggling currency in international markets.

The announcement is a step toward freely floating the currency, which the central bank currently tries to support in foreign exchange markets.

As confidence in the Russian economy wanes, supporting the ruble is proving increasingly difficult — and expensive. The ruble has lost more than 25 percent this year amid concern over economic sanctions from the United States and the European Union as well as a fall in the price of oil and gas exports.

The Russian Central Bank said Wednesday it would limit its intervention in markets to $350 million a day. The bank spent as much as $3 billion a day in October trying to support the ruble.

The announcement saw the ruble drop 3 percent in the day to 44.9 to the dollar in late trading on the MICEX exchange in Moscow.

"This appears to be tantamount to a move towards a freely floating ruble," said Neil Shearing, the chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics in London. "To all intents and purposes the old framework has been torn up and replaced with one in which the ruble floats more freely."

Shearing said further drops in the ruble were likely, but his research company was "reasonably comfortable" with forecasting it will stabilize at about 45 to the dollar over the next six months.


Nov 6, 2014 - 9:04am


consider yourself lucky!

Right now, the cheapest silver Maples that you can get in Germany are pretty much exactly 3€ (3.72 USD) above spot per ounce.

(without VAT, without shipping)

Nov 6, 2014 - 9:09am


You guys are hammered over there for sure. I hope your pay scale is much more to compensate. Hey we gor more phony stats today on the jobless claims.. now the markets are all green, loving it. More mope, they are calling for $800 gold now on market watch.. never ending propaganda to keep the dream alive.

Nov 6, 2014 - 9:12am

One of my metals retailers jumped the premiums on silver

I like this retailer since their prices are the same for any quantity and very good.I happened to buy yesterday early morning when the maples were $1.99 over spot. I just looked and now they want $2.49.. now thats a jump.. Who says there is no shortage..? Also Eagles were $2.35 and today, $3.25 over spot.. oh yeah i normally buy maples but i forgot and got eagles instead this time.


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