TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, October 7


The "deflation bias" that we've been discussing for weeks really reared its head today as stocks and crude fell sharply while The Long Bond made new 2014 lows in yield. Gold and silver held tight to their gains of yesterday which sets them both up for some very significant trading both tomorrow and Thursday.

In order, the charts we discuss today are these. First, The Long Bond and how it relates to gold:

Next, an S&P 500 that is hanging on by its fingernails and risks a mass run for the exits:

Here's the ongoing collapse in crude oil prices:

And a HUI that is approaching levels not seen since 2008 and 2005:

Finally, the short-term gold and silver charts which show the levels that must be watched closely over the next 24-48 hours:

Here's the link to the "Kosherdakota" headlines:

And, since I'm making this a public podcast, I'm not going to post the sign-up link for Thursday's A2A with Koos Jansen. I'll post that in tomorrow's thread, instead.



Oct 7, 2014 - 5:34pm

With this being a public (service) thread...

...there will, no doubt, be trolls aplenty amongst the comment pages.

Please just ignore them. They are not worth your time, either.

Oct 7, 2014 - 5:38pm



Oct 7, 2014 - 5:41pm


Now to listen to Turd.

I am still looking for a positive week.

Oct 7, 2014 - 6:01pm

expecting to fly...

mundo segundo o tercera?

Buffalo Springfield - Expecting to fly(Original Vid)
Oct 7, 2014 - 6:02pm

waiting for FMOC

TO GET BACK IN JNUG @ 9$ would be sweet or perhaps some mini S&P puts or both

Just back in after getting 30 staples out ( about 4 were connected to a nerve) before that, late for physio & sat down on the wheel chair too fast with my operated knee bent, yowsaaaaaaaa. Then straight on had to do exercise on same muscle I almost ripped out .

Now listening to Turd after numerous hydra morphine and Tylenol 500 and some wonderful cheese fondue and fresh baguette and the pain subsides

Oct 7, 2014 - 6:08pm

with you on jnug

I Held off today , and hopefully we get that wash out in the miners !

If we do I'm buying jnug as well

Gamble gamble

Oh yeah hvu might be worth a look

Not as painful as you but I'm still fighting a bad case of shingles .

Life is beautiful

Oct 7, 2014 - 6:08pm

Saudi Arabia Goes Rogue, Risking Oil Price War

Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 7, 2014

In the mid 1980s, there was a different King and a different oil minister in Saudi Arabia than present today, but, other than that, the threat of an oil price war within the ranks of OPEC has all the hallmarks of early 1986.

Typically, cartels like OPEC are supposed to act in unison on prices. But last Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, stunned world oil markets by acting alone in cutting its official crude price by $1 per barrel for November deliveries to its Asian customers. It also dropped its price by approximately 40 cents per barrel to U.S. and European customers.

If this is the opening salvo of a replay of 1986, be forewarned that crude oil prices plunged by over 50 percent in less than eight months in that era.

The Saudi oil minister in 1986 was Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani – a non royal simply bestowed with the title Sheik. Yamani stepped into the post in 1962 and was effectively the man who kept OPEC producers in line. But in 1986, cheating on production was rampant. In an effort to shore up world oil prices, Saudi Arabia had already cut its production below its quota of 4.3 million barrels per day to almost half in hopes of stemming the oil price slide amid a global glut.

But fellow OPEC members continued to cheat, leading Saudi Arabia to effectively launch a price war to grab market share for itself, leading to more rampant production quota cheating among OPEC members. The fallout was potentially more extreme than anticipated by Yamani. The price of crude fell from $23 to $9 and change. On October 29, 1986, Yamani was unceremoniously fired from his post by Saudi King Faud.

Fast forward to 2014. The new players are King Abdullah and Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi. U.S. domestic crude, known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI is at 17-month lows while Brent, the international benchmark, is trading near 27-month lows. In early morning trade, WTI was below $90 at $89.39 with Brent at $91.79.

Making the situation even more volatile today, the International Energy Agency, which has cut demand prospects in its last three monthly reports, is due out later today with a new assessment. In its September 11 report, it called the slowdown in demand “nothing short of remarkable.” Adding to concerns of a growing supply glut are the economic woes in Europe and China.

Rumors also abound that Saudi Arabia would not be saddened to knock out some of its higher-cost rivals in a prolonged price war and that it has the fiscal resources to endure a prolonged siege. It is estimated that shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas require a minimum of $70 to $80 a barrel to operate profitably. Any dramatic price decline as occurred in 1986 would put those operations in serious jeopardy.

Oct 7, 2014 - 6:19pm

In The Bunker

Want to feel defenseless? Visit Mexico during a market decline. Have your phone not work and your tablet unsecure. Good food and view. I think all my stops have triggered. Looking forward to returning to the 3rd world country of my birth and the land of political and social corruption, so I can add more stops. Wish I could put a stop on politicians. If that was the case, DC would be a real estate nightmare.

Oct 7, 2014 - 6:23pm

LCS Report

No ASEs, Maples, Philharmonics, etc. Silver dollars start at $23.50 each.

Oct 7, 2014 - 6:27pm

Holy Shit!

A rare MOAMOPE fail? Could it be? What?! Is this a sign?

Now to listen...

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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