TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, October 7

81

The "deflation bias" that we've been discussing for weeks really reared its head today as stocks and crude fell sharply while The Long Bond made new 2014 lows in yield. Gold and silver held tight to their gains of yesterday which sets them both up for some very significant trading both tomorrow and Thursday.

In order, the charts we discuss today are these. First, The Long Bond and how it relates to gold:

Next, an S&P 500 that is hanging on by its fingernails and risks a mass run for the exits:

Here's the ongoing collapse in crude oil prices:

And a HUI that is approaching levels not seen since 2008 and 2005:

Finally, the short-term gold and silver charts which show the levels that must be watched closely over the next 24-48 hours:

Here's the link to the "Kosherdakota" headlines: https://headlines.ransquawk.com/headlines/fed-s-kockerlakota-says-a-key-...

And, since I'm making this a public podcast, I'm not going to post the sign-up link for Thursday's A2A with Koos Jansen. I'll post that in tomorrow's thread, instead.

TF

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SaratogaPrepper
Oct 9, 2014 - 10:23am

Alan2102

Exactly!

Why else would he be posting here?

judejin
Oct 9, 2014 - 10:16am

turd is a contrarian indicator

when turd proudly declassified the "riding the line", the "line" was broken and 18 was gone before long.

so this time, when turd is publicly stating "deflation bias" and warns about silver's potential crash, silver/gold might have made the final bottom.

i think the problem is turd is looking at too few charts.

i can pull up many more charts that say the prices of commodities are insanely cheap and many have bottomed too.

EUR, CRUDE, rubber, cotton, and many others have bottomed. the deflation scam has gone too far!

so let's all wish i'm correct! 8 )

being contrarian is useful.

on a chinese website, i have been the contrarian indicator for the last 3 months. but i guess whoever uses me as the indicator will be surprised when i become the positive indicator.

better stick to your view close to the bottom, babe.

Markedtofuture
Oct 9, 2014 - 9:44am

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Civil Forfeiture (HBO)

Published on Oct 5, 2014

Did you know police can just take your stuff if they suspect it's involved in a crime? They can!
It’s a shady process called “civil asset forfeiture,” and it would make for a weird episode of Law and Order.
See?

Civil Forfeiture: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
alan2102Motley Fool
Oct 9, 2014 - 9:06am

motley

Speaking of lack of people, I've noticed that FOFOAs blog is almost completely dead anymore. Like maybe 3 posts per day, if that. TFMR is far, far more active than there.

Maybe everything that could possibly be said about freegold has been said, and now it is just a matter of waiting. (18 years and counting, as of this month!) Or, maybe FOFOA banned everyone -- especially anyone with a novel point of view -- and now there's no one left. Whatever.

DaveBDr. P. Metals
Oct 9, 2014 - 5:06am

Polny just may have NAILED it?! We should know by Friday

Gold has been UP every Day since Monday October 6. That is 3 days in a row, and Bo Polny did say UP into Friday October 10, 2014 minimum and Tuesday October 14, 2014 maximum. He is CORRECT so far from my count!

I sure hope he is correct, as I did add to my position on Monday's open at $1195 after reading Mr. Bill Murphy's of GATA comments where Murphy stated in a conversation Polny had with him apparently last Saturday. Murphy states... "Bo Polny is absolutely confident that gold will not break below the Dec 1181 low. It just cannot do that because such event would break a long term 'master cycle', and er that aint gonna happen... First low 2013 in June, that low came in at $1179. Last December gold stopped at $1181. On Friday gold dropped to close at $1191... from Saturday, 'there's absolutely nothing to worry about, because what will not happen is that the December low at 1181 will not break.' "

He is a link from another forum also: https://forums.silverstackers.com/message-722808.html#p722808

And here is a link to his update from Monday: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bywe0LES4bGiYnhhZTE0Z3RIWXdvRVpadHRlYzk...

Anyways I'm UP nicely as Gold is currently at $1225 early Thursday. Always important to look at both sides of the trade IMO. Lets see how the day finishes up. Polny states it should close UP. All we can do is wait and see...

Karankawa
Oct 9, 2014 - 2:19am

Well, the manning up wasn't that bad.

And there was enough to go through that even the dog got full of what dogs normally eat first in the wild.

I will have quail to can, quail to share, and quail to eat. And I won't have to pickle so many quail eggs this weekend. I already have tons. I like the spicy ones best.

Karankawa
Oct 8, 2014 - 8:53pm

SRSRocco connects some dots I've had running around in my head.

I believe 'Money' is not as important to TPTB as control. They already have vasts amounts of wealth, and want more through CONTROL of what THEY dictate as money.

https://srsroccoreport.com/bankers-manipulation-of-gold-silver-proof-in-...

My solitary effort to escape this is to limit myself from the corruption in every way possible. It's not working out too badly and certainly isn't a hardship to grow a good portion of your own food. But I am going to have to man up later on and do what most pay others to do. Cull out some meat. I'm being over run with eggs right now and have more in the incubator. The smaller of several bloodlines will find themselves in the freezer tonight. It's not an enjoyable operation but once mastered becomes part of the overall process, and I thank the Lord for the animals I have been given to steward. There is NO FDA or Corporation that cares more about my raising, tending, slaughter, or consumption of the animals I put onto my plate than myself.

Enjoyed the garden updates that have been posted. As most of you know, I live in the South and I planted Carrot and Beet seeds today in a new way I've just discovered, soil blocks. I bought this off Amazon

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00GQQ8D3I/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s...

and I hope it solves a problem we have here in the South for our Winter gardens. Cool weather plant seeds won't germinate in soil that is too hot and while we wait for the soil to cool down to germination range, we miss weeks if not months of production. Same thing as Winter for you folks up North. Ha', try growing lettuce down here after May. Everything is bolting and the leaves are so bitter the rabbits won't eat them LOL.

The idea is to keep the cool weather seeds indoors during the heat of the day but leave them outside overnight, and since they are Root Crops that don't like to be transplanted, the blocks can be directly 'seeded' as the soil cools. We'll see, this is my first year trying but I noticed last year that the Box Stores were bringing in cool weather plants much earlier than I could plant them in the ground here.

As I said, I'm using the resources I pay for to keep me comfortable, but exiting the 'corruption' every way possible. And I'm having a blast, Reality is sweet!

In Liberty and God Bless,

Karankawa

Stratajema
Oct 8, 2014 - 7:18pm

Truth not hype

>>Talked with Apmex no shortage and no extra premiums, anywhere that I could see or hear. Enjoy.<<

Thanks for telling the truth. The level of B.S. lies by commentary websites that just happen to sell silver is deafening.

We need a slow decline in the price of silver so that Apmex and others can replenish their silver coin inventory at a lower price. If the price drops too rapidly, they will either pull inventory or increase the premium over spot. Buyers of physical silver will eventually get exhausted at this price level. I'm still hoping for $14.80 and it would be nice to get there by year end.

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Boswell
Oct 8, 2014 - 4:05pm
zman
Oct 8, 2014 - 1:23pm

I think it's premature to

I think it's premature to assume that a QE 4 is needed down the road. Policymakers can live with $80 oil and a US dollar index at 90, it's nothing to panic about. Even if the Dow drops down to 14-15,000 I don't think we will get any Fed action.

Let's assume a QE 4 is started in 2015, what will more bond buying do to the markets? If the EU and Japan are doing the same thing, what difference will it make? Investors are not going to pile into commodities just because of QE 4, there has to be real fundamentals behind that type of trend change.

QE does not produce inflation, if banks don't extend credit into the general economy inflation will not materialize, if fiscal policy doesn't change inflation will not materialize, there has to be drastic changes for inflation to start up in developed economies.

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