Another New JB-SFC

101

Another week has gone by but, contrary to western media reports, "The Ukraine Crisis" has not calmed or de-escalated. As has been the norm since February, this week's discussion between John Batchelor and Stephen F. Cohen is required listening.

Topics discussed this week include:

  • The terms and conditions of the alleged ceasefire
  • Why Poroshenko will soon visit the U.S. and address Congress
  • The likelihood of another "Maidan" revolution
  • The NATO alliance and the growing divisions within it all the while expanding the NATO military presence in Eastern Europe
  • The growing divisions on the Russian side between Putin and "Russian nationalists"

Once again, the information shared in these weekly discussion is nothing like anything else you'll find in the western media. Please make the time to give this a thorough listen.

TF

  101 Comments

zman
Sep 17, 2014 - 11:02pm

@buzlightening

The US dollar heading to zero? Come on now, the dollar is the best of the all major currencies today, that's why it's at almost 85 on the dollar index, what's better? The Euro? no. Yen? no. Pound? no. Or some other 3rd world currency? no.

All major currencies are going to lose value relative to some of the emerging market currencies, it's already been happening for the past 14 years, it's really not that big of a deal. At the end of the day, the dollar and other major currencies will slowly lose 2-3% over the next 15 years against the undervalued currencies of the world (China, India, Brazil, ect) to get into proper valuation.

China is in NO rush for a weak dollar or strong yuan, maybe in another generation that could change, but it's not anytime soon.

Are PM's a good way to hedge against this very long term trend? Most likely, but there's plenty of other ways as well that might work even better.

Alonzo Jazzberry MountainMan
Sep 17, 2014 - 11:08pm

Mountain Man

Why do you think that I buy into any thing? I come to this site because I am interested in the perspective and where PMs fit in my portfolio. I didn't hold much of any PMs until the last 6 months or so, and would be perfectly fine with them getting 'crushed' in the short term. No one should be holding them for the short term.

What is 'laughably wrong' about your posts? I would invite you to simply look at your post history and calls for PM smashes. You will find they are 100% correlated to a smash that just happened, and 0% correlated to what happens after you post. Why not post your prognostications on more banal days? The only answer I can conceive is that you just want to be a jerk. If you feel badly for people that overallocated to metals and lost their shirts, I cannot imagine a worse way to convey that sympathy.

Kindly piss off.

Occasnltrvlr
Sep 18, 2014 - 12:09am

@ Alonzo Jazzberry re: Mountain Man

I don't quite see where you're coming from. After the previous smash, Mountain Man said there was more to come.

More came.

How was he wrong?

Alonzo Jazzberry
Sep 18, 2014 - 12:46am

@Occasnlt

Wait - so if someone predicts that an asset will go down soon, and then it doesn't, but it does do it at some arbitrary time later, that impresses you? My but you are easily impressed.

Here goes. I picked one comment of his randomly, from back in March 28, 2014, right after a huge move down:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/251418#comment-251418

"Gold Headed to 1150. They will smoke this now. One final flush out. Just look at your weekly chart. UGLY!"

Gold almost immediately spiked 10%, and has still never to this day hit $1150. Again, it's absolutely laughable how wrong he is. Now, if he wanted to take the weaker position that the bear market will continue for a long time, that's fine. He has a 50/50 shot of being right. But these predictions about when, and to what extent, smashes will come in the short term are just embarrassing. All he's doing is gloating about whatever smash just happened. He's just being a dick.

And yes, that comment was randomly chosen - play the game yourself and see how accurate his predictions are.

Alonzo Jazzberry
Sep 18, 2014 - 12:51am

@Occasnlt

<Deleted Double Post>

Occasnltrvlr
Sep 18, 2014 - 1:33am

I'm not that easily impressed

"...and then it doesn't, but it does..."

If it does, it did, didn't it?

Gold's a helluva lot closer to $1150 today than I thought it ever would be again.

I just seem to get a different impression about MountainMan than you do.


Sep 18, 2014 - 1:34am

Bottom will be near(er) when...

...johnnydow makes his indicator appearance in a thread. I've sometimes wondered whether he might be Johnny Bravo of ZH 'fame'.

Stratajema
Sep 18, 2014 - 1:45am

Don't worry!! Any tapering of

Don't worry!! Any tapering of QE will cause all markets to crash and gold to soar. Oh wait, that is what the gold bulls said two years ago. LOL

Hey, the game is over. The paper tigers won. Why expend good energy denying it? And here I thought the last analyst I follow (Jim Rickards) would have been right. All that is left is the pure comedy of the interviews at King World News.

Safety Dan
Sep 18, 2014 - 4:14am

Those that think the dollar

Those that think the dollar will keep its value, I encourage you to put all your assets into dollars.

Or you can read about debasement of prior fiat currencies. There has been many currency debasments prior to the dollar.

Its a simple choice, dollars or PM's land, and/or fine art. Give it 3-5 years and lets see where we stand.

silver2013 Safety Dan
Sep 18, 2014 - 7:28am

3 to 5 years. I heard this

3 to 5 years. I heard this back in 2008 from so many people. Stop dreaming and look at the dow today. Up again.$$$

DeaconBenjamin
Sep 18, 2014 - 7:41am

China launches gold market to bolster free trade zone

By AFP | AFP – 6 minutes ago

  • Gold bars worth 100 mn yuan ($16 mn) on display at a gold trading company in Kunming, southwest China's Yunnan province on December 11, 2012

    View Photo

    AFP - Gold bars worth 100 mn yuan ($16 mn) on display at a gold trading company in Kunming, southwest China's Yunnan province on December 11, 2012

China, one of the world's biggest gold consumers, on Thursday launched a new market for trading the precious metal, state media said, as it seeks to attract foreign investors to a year-old free trade zone (FTZ).

The Shanghai Gold Exchange launched an international board in the city's FTZ in hopes that it might eventually challenge global gold markets like New York and London, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The move came just ahead of the one year anniversary of the founding of the zone and days after authorities removed a top official running it amid media reports he was under investigation for corruption.

When China launched the FTZ last September, officials promised widespread reform including free convertibility of the yuan currency, but the slow pace of change has frustrated businesses, especially foreign companies.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang toured the FTZ on Thursday, Shanghai authorities said, a visit viewed as a central government show of support for the pilot project.

The international board will trade spot gold among members, including foreign financial institutions, Xinhua and industry officials said.

The existing Shanghai Gold Exchange, opened in 2002, includes only a handful of foreign members, making it largely closed to overseas investors.

"The international board has made China's opening up of the gold market a reality," exchange chairman Xu Luode was quoted by Xinhua as saying.

An exchange spokesman, Gu Wenshuo, declined to give details.

Industry officials said contracts on the international board will be denominated in China's yuan, but overseas investors will be able to settle with offshore yuan funds as the government seeks to make the currency more widely used.

The market will also allow gold from overseas to be warehoused in the FTZ and used for physical delivery of the metal, they said.

"Opening up this international board allows more international participants, who would like to participate in the China market," said Albert Cheng, Far East managing director for the World Gold Council.

"This is the ambition of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, to further open up the market to global players -- either suppliers or investors," he told AFP.

Mainland China's consumer demand for gold was the second biggest in the world in the second quarter of this year at 192.5 tonnes, behind only India, and accounting for around a quarter of global demand, according the World Gold Council.

The exchange set the price for a new benchmark contract, iAu99.5, at 245.28 yuan ($40) per gram before the start of trade, according to a statement.

The international gold price was at $1,223.00 an ounce (31.1 grams) Thursday morning in London.

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/china-launches-gold-market-bolster-fre...

Fulgurite
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:20am

"this time it will be different"

Haha, and the price keeps on dropping further and further.

Keep on buying, "stacking" and praying guys! Your bad luck and bad timing will reverse any day now, because uncle Turd, uncle Eric King and all those 'precious-metals-sell-side-uncles' are telling you so...

Yes yes, "this time it will be different" and when the next bubble bursts, Gold will NOT go down with the rest. Right... surprise


Sep 18, 2014 - 8:21am

China May Have Undergone Some

China May Have Undergone Some Kind of Coup

https://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/945962-china-may-have-undergone-some-kind-of-coup/?sidebar=hotarticle

___________________________________________

As you might guess, this fuels some high octane speculation. The current Chinese premier, Mr. Xi Jinping, has been quite active in the promotion of China’s role within the BRICSA bloc, and such a vigorous foreign and international financial and trade policy – the most recent example of which is China’s agreement to trade with Argentina in yuan – can speak either to a domestic weakness, or for that matter, to a domestic strength on Xi’s part. And this vigor, in concert with Russia’s determination under Mr. Putin to avoid further Western rape of that country, has solicited the inevitable calls for “regime change” – and hence more covert operations shenanigans – in Russia itself.

The implication here is that such “regime change” might be on the table for Xi Jinping’s China, particularly since that nation seems determined to adhere to (1) its national sovereignty over its currency and (2) its use of what is essentially debt-free money. It is China’s successful ability in promoting its currency to international use that constitutes a serious threat to the monetized debt-money system of Western privately-held central banks. In other words, if there is one nation just begging to become the target for western “nation building” and “regime change,” then it is Mr. Xi’s China, and this could be based or fostered upon exploitation of conventional Chinese factional interests and divisions. Mr. Xi, by holding such exercises, appears determined to negate any influence of that Western system via the Shanghai bankers.

That promotion of the yuan on the international stage is being supplemented by something else, and the article suggests what it is, and this one had to have had the alarm bells and claxons sounding loudly in usual corridors of the Western Anglosphere power elite

https://gizadeathstar.com/2014/09/intriguing-news-china-recent-military-exercises-forestall-coup/

ancientmoney
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:21am

Wow--all the recent trolls on one page!

It's a miracle!

No, wait, they always come around after a smash . . .

SilverRunNW
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:31am

Dog Pile

Hey look, it's the "downside dog pile" team back in action. Old names spewing the same piggish drivel with a few newbies on top. You know what that means old timer bashers? That pressure that you're feeling up your rear is unusually familiar, eh? And pleasurable for you too, I bet.

What a waste of digital space.

Fulgurite
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:53am

1st!

"No, wait, they always come around after a smash . . ."

Yup, and you idiots keep on buying more!

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp
smiley

Oddly enough we're on the same page when it comes to the merits of Gold (and Silver), but simply because I disagree on the timing I'm being called a "troll?!" What's next? You're gonna click the "alert moderator" button and have me banned?

Don't be frustrated and mad at me because PM prices haven't gone up. Don't shoot the messenger. Look in the mirror and be critical of your own foolishness.

Wizard
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:55am

"this time it will be different" 2

Don't worry we are right there with ya. You are right the stock market will not crash this time. "this time it will be different"

With the entire main stream media screaming what a great thing it is for the market to reach these lofty heights I am sure it can go nowhere but up.

Gold and Silver are barbarous relics that were money in the past 5000 years of human history.

We are in the new age of the Dollar and with it's lengthy 40 plus year history that they finally got it right and separated it from the barbarous relics of Gold and Silver we have entered a new age that will see never ending growth and prosperity for everyone.

Better 10 years too early than 1 day too late

Sorry Could Not Help Myself

W

ivars
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:56am

Green Lantern

I suspect China is having its own version of Great Purge since 2012. It may end soon . It has also touched security and army as you know ( antigraft cases in army, discovery of former security boss "network"), not only Party ( Bo Chilai) . Reminds me of Stalin trials of his old comrades. Could be aimed to clean any suspicions that China and West may be working together against Russia. At the same time, USA is turning to Pacific and Japan, Vietnam ratcheting up anti china rhetoric and getting answered- all with the aim to allow China to boost its defenses with Russian help ( as Russia was boosting its technology and army with German help) without Russian suspicion ( masses) just to use it one day against Russia itself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Purge

Lamenting Laverne
Sep 18, 2014 - 8:58am

Stratajema says "The paper tigers has won"

Well hauy they nouw? (imagine thick Scottish accent ala the tentacly Davy Jones in a bucket) [lip-blub].

Emotional turmoil? For sure. Battle bruised? Personally very much so, especially since I have to sell for expences during this dip, and it pisses me off. Lost the war? Absolutely not yet!

The reaction from bonds has previously been to rally, when the spigot news were "good". Over the last few months, we have seen a significant flight out of high yield bonds. Yesterday, we did not see a rally in 10yr USTs - quite the opposite. And today, we hear that the off take of European stimulus loans were very modest. It appears that money has started to move.

If the paper tigers cannot keep the leverage going permanently with a steady rise - they have not won - and something has got to give at some point. Even if the sometimes bizarro action in the markets over the last three years have made complete fools of many of us.

So I say your announcement is a wee bit premature. When mortgage rates are back to 8-9% and bank deposits pay 4-5% and we still have a functioning market and Gold is still at rock bottom prices with no material bank failures in the process, I may be willing to hand you the trophy. But not yet.

We are betting against the most powerful people on the friggin planet. Anyone thinking this would be a piece of cake, and that the paper tigers would roll over without using every friggin tool on the box to inflict maximum injury and pain to their opponents need to think again. This is a battle of the titans and we are sort of stuck in the middle. Sink or Swim. Shit or get off the Pot....

But please don't come around pestering with loss of battle morale carrying your little salt dispensers only when the wounds are completely fresh. It detracts from your credibility. And it potentially reveals rather ugly personal characteristics - similar to those thugs who only engage in a fight when the opponent is lying on the ground. Anybody can kick someone in the gut, when he is lying down - but not all do. Think a little about what separates the two types of beings.

I absolutely hate it too, and I do have certain regrets at this point in time, but this is the effing Gold market we are talking about. It is the bloody center hub of the financial universe. If it wasn't they would not be Anacondas like this to keep it in check - throwing tons of resources at constricting Gold along with every other market to fit the desired picture. Rigging every benchmark. Killing or otherwise neutralizing any potential threat. Occupying whole countries if there is something of interest to loot - so the game can go on for a little longer.

It is very simple in that perspective - I seems to me like they are still fighting - which means the war is not over.

@ Bugzy: Thank you! It is so much appreciated. I would really love to spend a few hours in a nice bar (Kilkenny's for me please) discussing these subjects as well ;-) It seems when I do that off-line, people no longer walk away from me - they run! The group of friends have thinned considerably - another collateral damage of this "project" , "obsession" or "out-of-box" experience, I guess ;-)

Hammer
Sep 18, 2014 - 9:02am

Getting to the ridicule

Getting to the being ridiculed stage. Next will be completely vanquished and laughed at outright. Almost there..maybe a few more months to go ? Who knows. We definitely are not there yet though. Posts like those coming above point the markers out on the way.

P.S. Take a look at au in yen and say it to me smarty pants ;)

ancientmoney Fulgurite
Sep 18, 2014 - 9:16am

Fulgurite . . . a troll?

"but simply because I disagree on the timing I'm being called a "troll?!"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nobody named you as a troll; you just named yourself--you must have subconsciously recognized it on your own.

ancientmoney
Sep 18, 2014 - 9:20am

All trolls, listen up . . .

And, you know who you are.

If you believe that TEOTGKE is on its way, then you realize that paper PMs must MUST approach ZERO.

And, assuming TEOTGKE is nearly here, then soon it will be time for all us "fools'" physical to act as the intended insurance against such an event.

I'm sure you'll be trying to redeem your GLD shares at just such a moment--good luck!

ag1969
Sep 18, 2014 - 9:25am

GL

I read both of the articles you posted. A coup just isn't a coup until all of China's Intelligence, Security, and Defense forces are thwarted with box cutters. Only then will I believe it's a coup.

dragonfly5
Sep 18, 2014 - 9:33am

Kicking people when they are down

is the easy thing to do if you are of a certain mindset . . .

Making fun of people when the "fiat value" of their stack has gone down is the easy thing to do if you are of a certain mindset . . .

Easy is not always right. Of course there has been a lot of negative sentiment regarding PM's - not only on down days (or weeks) like this - it's been happening for a couple of years now - actually seems to have started just after I started being "awake" and stacking - so yes, it's been tough to see the fiat value go down but over the years I've found great ways to DCA down - more informed now - looking for dips.

Do I care if the price goes down another 20 - 30% in the next year or two - not at all.

Question for all to ponder. If someone gave you a large sum of money and told you that it was yours but you could either sink all of it into PM's or the stock market - which would you choose?

Of course the markets may continue to rise over the next months but despite the differences we all share on this board (trolls included) we all know that any appearance of valuations in the market is artificial in nature and can not stand over time - I believe real markets have been dead for some time and if only on principal alone I refuse to play the markets as they exist.

If fully expect more pain in the days and weeks ahead. I will likely be doing more DCA. The size of my stack is not diminishing and if all else fails I have a legacy to pass to my children - they may need it more than I.

buzlightening
Sep 18, 2014 - 9:42am

Western central bankstering gangstering are on an

all in last ditch effort right now before our eyes to keep the paper pulp fiction story alive. THEY'RE LOSING! Paper fiat currencies do hit their intrinsic value always=ZERO! No need to get into any pissing matches with anyone when all the known facts speak to it. Timeline is not predictable but the end result is and anyone who denies it will be begging at the feet of the beasts slavorading program for crumbs from the masters table. None will be forthcoming as all the useless overeaters get stood up for depopulation by the EEE.

erewenguy
Sep 18, 2014 - 10:06am

Must....Keep.....SLV......Away from Channel Resistance

Hey, no one ever said triple witching week was painless.

Remember the trendline resistance in SLV is the yellow line in the upper right (check your weekly charts to see where this comes from).


Is there enough fire power left to drop price like we saw in April 2013, or is price just going to keep withering? The price action looks like the algos are trying to force price to a level where capitulation occurs. Maybe someone can tell me WHERE the capitulation event is going to come from? Will the holders of large silver stockpiles suddenly say fuggeddaboutit and start dumping their physical?

Oh, that's right. We were told JPM has large physical stocks. It's good to be king.

I've got time. I've overpaid for silver at $7.50 an ounce before. It caught up.

silver2013
Sep 18, 2014 - 10:10am

Dow is up....again. gold down

Dow is up....again. gold down again. I will sell some paper when dow hits 22k and start buying gold in the $600 to $700 range. Thanks to the feds for this great gift.

elpicador
Sep 18, 2014 - 10:27am
Mr. Fix
Sep 18, 2014 - 11:09am

Fanning the flames of war in Washington DC:

Poroshenko Tells US Congress "Russia Has Invaded Ukraine, Need Lethal Aid" - Live Feed

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/18/2014 - 10:46

In a passionate speech to a joint meeting of Congress, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko dropped some tape-bombs:

  • *POROSHENKO SAYS RUSSIA `HAS NOW INVADED UKRAINE'
  • *POROSHENKO SAYS UKRAINE `URGENTLY' NEEDS LETHAL AID
  • *POROSHENKO WARNS RUSSIANS WILL NEXT CROSS EUROPEAN BORDER

Supported by rounds of applause by US politicians, Poroshenko called for the US solidarity and to lead the offensive against Russia as they "fan the flames of war." Stocks dipped (but recovered) though PMs are higher still.

Mr. Fix
Sep 18, 2014 - 11:19am

The bottom of the rabbit hole is infested with Ebola:

September 18, 2014

"This Sent Chills Up My Spine" - Dave Hodges On Hagmann And Hagmann

By Susan Duclos

The headline is a direct quote from Dave Hodges The Common Sense Show, and after listening to him connect the dots of what he calls "one of the greatest threats to public health," on the Hagmann and Hagmann show below, the information, publicly available, should send chills down every single spine of those that listen to it.

Hodges imparts information that came to him from confidential sources, then as he states, he had an "AHA! moment," and started digging, and what he uncovered, via information available to the general public online, shows despite knowing what we know about the Ebola outbreak, the spread, the CDC warnings that it is inevitable that it will appear in the US, if it hasn't already, "It gets worse" Hodges explains, and then proceeds to lay out exactly how.

First Hodges shares what his DEA sources have told him, which is that border patrol agents are "scared to death," of Ebola crossing the border via bioterrorism, then explains how he has received scanned copies of CDC emails sent to at least 11 states, on how to prepare for an Ebola outbreak in the US, making him assume that if 11 states received them, they must have been sent to all 50.

Then he started connecting dots by uncovering the connection between Ebola, the CDC which owns the Ebola patent, along with any related strain that has up to a 70 percent commonality, inlcuing hybrid strains, the NIH which owns the vaccine, a company called CRUCELL which has been working with Ebola and which is connected to Army research, NIH and Bill Gates who has invested up to $560 million into the Ebola vaccine.

Via The Common Sense Show website:

• Crucell is developing an Ebola vaccine in collaboration with the Vaccine Research Center (VRC) of the NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). It has been shown to completely protect monkeys against the virus with a single dose of the vaccine. • Under the terms of the agreement with VRC, Crucell has an option for exclusive worldwide commercialization rights to the Ebola vaccine. • Crucell’s Ebola vaccine entered Phase I clinical trialsin Q3 2006. Two groups of 16 volunteers were enrolled and vaccinated. The study showed safety and immunogenicity at the doses evaluated. • In October 2008, Crucell secured a NIAID/NIH award to advance the development of Ebola and Marburg vaccines, with the ultimate aim of developing a multivalent filovirus vaccine. • The award provides funding of up to $30 million, with additional options, worth a further $40 million.

Take a look at the following quote from the same article:

This explains why the CDC and the NIH are bringing Ebola patients into the country to treat. The moment that an Ebola patient crosses the U.S. border, they become the intellectual property of the CDC, NIH and Bill and Melinda Gates! How can we not believe that this is the Hegelian Dialectic run amok in a case of problem creation, solution to the problem and reaction to the problem? The involvement of the USAMRIID is noteworthy because the Army has long been rumored to have created Ebola and, for purposes of experimentation, implanted the artificial virus in Zaire in 1977.

David Hodges joins the show at the 34 minute mark below and if you listen to nothing else today, you should listen to this.

The show is at the link provided:

https://www.allnewspipeline.com/This_Sent_Chills_Up_My_Spine.php

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2/20 2:00 ET January FOMC Minutes
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2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
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