More from JB and SFC

58

Last evening, John and Steve continued their weekly discussion of the events unfolding in Eastern Europe and Ukraine.

This is another interesting discussion as it covers the history of the region, the increasing tensions and the upcoming D-Day Anniversary events which will be attended by Putin, Woody and nearly every other "Western" leader.

Again, some background on Professor Cohen can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_F._Cohen

And you can catch the John Batchelor Program nightly by clicking here: https://johnbatchelorshow.com/

TF

  58 Comments

  Refresh
Bollocks
Jun 5, 2014 - 4:49pm

Latest reaction from EU on Russia/Ukraine

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has told the BBC that the inclusion of Russia in any future meeting of the leading industrial nations is uncertain.

Mr Barroso said the democratic G7 club "does not accept today the Russia of Vladimir Putin."

Leaders meeting in Brussels have said they are prepared to impose further sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine.

3min interview here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27715412?ocid=socialflow_twitter

(my bold)

AlienEyesDragonFly
Jun 5, 2014 - 4:41pm

@ DragonFly

I no longer listen to the tripe that SFC spits up.

I must have out listened you.

Galearisancientmoney
Jun 5, 2014 - 3:40pm

ancientmoney is very correct

We are all adults and can make these decisions. Having said that there is a very large (and unknowable) percentage of so-called gold bugs that do not understand why gold and silver, as monetary metals rise in price…I would even say that the majority of so-called gold bugs do not understand. If the so-called gold bug is thinking in terms of a dollar profit, then that person is not a gold bug; he is a dollar bug.

In other words when gold reaches $5000 per ounce, many pseudo gold bugs would sell out for a paper profit. But gold reaching $5000 is a strong signal that hyperinflation is upon us. That is a resounding DUHHHH! Stating the obvious, the seller has just committed financial suicide.

Does anyone think China is thinking about a dollar profit point of view?

True there will come a time when selling for currencies will make sense, but at a guess, that time will be much later – and probably many years away. Unless one needs the cash today.

I would recommend looking into the Free Gold worldview for what it takes to survive what is coming…

FWIW,

G.

StrongsidejediTF
Jun 5, 2014 - 11:25am

WW2 what if's

alt-history in the context of the US entry to WW2 is a little explored area of thought. Some thoughts on this subject are relevant because the currency wars and the death of money are tied into regional conflicts and big macro-geo political fights. There are lessons to be learned from analysis of the 1939-1941 geopolitical situation.

I have previously posted reference to the 1940 Office of Navel Intel memo written by McCollum for FDR's White House. In that memo, it was clear that the US was positioning to challenge Japanese nationalism and militarism in the Pacific Rim. The memo recommended forward deployment of the US fleet from bases in California to Pearl Harbor. There is an intriguing argument that Pearl Harbor would not have occurred had the FDR Admin not requested forward deployment of the battleships and carriers to Pearl Harbor.

But, when you look at commentary from 1940 and even 1941, it is clear that the international situation is far from an Axis v. Allies story. The Axis v. Allies story in my opinion is only clear after 12-7-41. Germany and Italy declare war on the US before the US declares war on them. Japan acts prior to declaring war and the US has to declare war on 12-8-41 in response.

Prior to 12-7-41, it appears that there was a portion of the intelligentsia in the United States that actually believed that Japan and Russia would start fighting before the Japanese would attack the US or US interests. These individuals underestimated the willingness of the Japanese military to gamble on the US attack extending Japanese power for another few years. Those analysts also guessed that Japanese-US interests would sort out in favor of US-Japan aligning against Communism and Stalin.

Knowing what happened, it's pretty dumb for the Japanese military to think that they could attack the US Navy and get away for very long. But, at the time, the IJN had six carriers and a number of battleships and cruisers. They were a very strong Pacific military war machine and yet did not have some key technologies that the USN had.

By 12-1941 it was clear that Japan was running low on energy and fuel. The McCollum memo included action items that cut off Japanese access to oil and embargoes on goods/trade to Japan from the US. The US and the UK were cutting off those energy supplies. There is a very clear school of thought that Japanese attacks in Hawaii, the Philippine Islands, Panama, and the Dutch-East Indies were simultaneously occurring in order to halt the progression of US power in the Pacific rim. Japan was struggling for oil in order to continue the Westward expansion of power in what is now China/Manchuria and Korea.

Remember that Japan and Russia had had a war 35 years earlier in which the US supplied some of the naval ships to the Japanese government in order to neutralize the Czarist Russian military power in the Northern Pacific.

Also recall that Japan had a civil war around 1870 with internal domestic political infighting lasting for decades. It's those internal struggles that partly led to the economic instability in the 1930's because the lack of Japanese political stability allows the militarists to rise, just as in the case of the German permitting the Nazi's and the Italians permitting the Fascists.

Democratic processes which are hijacked by the factions can be extremely dangerous, including our own vulnerability to such schemes in the United States.

If Germany had not moved on Russia, my guess is that Russia would have eventually moved on Germany anyway. Germany was encroaching on Russian power in the Baltic states. The UK was weak but not yet out of the game due to Lend Lease FDR policies in 1940. But, the key is that German economic growth and power were limited within the borders of Germany. With Hitler's fanatical vision for a grandiose third Reich, there is no option but to seize power and resources from outside Germany in order to stabilize internal power within the Reich. This leads to the inevitable need to attack other nations and seize those people as labor pool, those resources for the war machine, and those banks to fund.

I would argue in the case of both Germany and Japan, that a tyranny can not stand very long (only a few years time) compared to a democratic republic which can stand several rounds of difficulty and still show resilience. The primary reason for the difference is that a tyranny relies upon a non-motivated and threatened prisoner workforce. This is subject to poor morale, poor workmanship, and even sabotage due to the deathly labor conditions. Meanwhile, the US defense industry was cranked up and rolling in 1941. By 1942, ships, aircraft, and tanks were rolling off assembly lines in the US. And, the US labor pool was massive, well-trained, educated, committed to the war, and largely secure despite hardship of rationing and other economic impacts locally.

Japan and Germany had no hope of winning the wars because the power lay in US capitalism, industrial capability, and energy (oil from California and Texas). In a protracted fight, the US population was larger, better educated, and more productive. This means that the US was able to outproduce the other war machines and tactically field better weaponry and defense by 1945.

By late 1944, Japan and Germany had political regimes that were forcing labor, drafting younger teenagers (14 and 15 year olds), lacked production, lacked energy, and a selfish desperate leadership that would not admit their own errors.

Even if Japan had bombed the oil fields on Oahu, the IJN would have had to attack Hawaii and hold it militarily to remove US capability to rebuild. In 1942, the population of Hawaii was largely asian, including a sizable Japanese population that was loyal to the United States. There is no way that the IJN or Japanese military would have successfully invaded and held Hawaii. From what I have seen, even Admiral Yamamoto's own battle plan for the Pacific never contemplated invasion and holding Hawaii. From what I have seen in the limited English language translations available, the IJN command structure had significant doubts about the Pacific War even at the inception. They were acting on orders from higher up the chain of command and were executing along those lines. Some appear rather fatalistic in such action, knowing that they would die in the war anyway.

All this to say that war is bad.

Counterfiat
Jun 5, 2014 - 11:23am

NIRP

First they raised taxes on precious metals in Europe, then they introduce NIRP, next to be followed by BURP.

atarangi
Jun 5, 2014 - 7:10am
atarangi
Jun 5, 2014 - 6:22am

atarangi likes to eat out

Only on Thanksgiving.

atarangi
Jun 5, 2014 - 5:59am

Spartacus B&B

Innkeeper: The room is $15. a night. It's $5. if you make your own bed.
atarangi: I'll make my own bed.
Innkeeper: Good. I'll get you some nails and wood. atarangi: I bought my own nails and wood but I'll probably just sleep on the floor. Thanks for the free accommodation.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Spartacus Rex
Jun 5, 2014 - 5:52am

atarangi's expectant wife...

Atarangi speaks frantically into the phone, "My wife is pregnant, and her contractions are only two minutes apart!" "Is this her first child?" the doctor queries. "No, you idiot!" atarangi shouts. "This is her husband!"

Spartacus Rex
Jun 5, 2014 - 5:44am

atarangi likes to eat out...

And asks his waiter how they prepare their chicken. The waiter says that there's nothin' special... we just flat out tell' em they're gonna die...

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Recent Comments

by stingbee, 2 min 5 sec ago
by b72s, 7 min 14 sec ago
by cmhenry, 11 min 46 sec ago
by Dantonifl, 12 min 7 sec ago
by streber, 14 min 13 sec ago
randomness