TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, March 26


As The Forces of Darkness break gold down on the Globex, what can we expect tomorrow and Friday. Will this be the final dip before the 2014 rally resumes in April?

Yes, I believe it is. I mentioned on Monday and Tuesday that The Evil Ones would salivate at the thought of one final dip through the 200-day MA in gold. This would lead to a final bottom for this current corrective scheme of $1280-1285. This looks nearly certain, at this point. The MAIN BATTLE, though, will be in what comes next. Can gold break through the red line again?

Silver, too, looks set for a final dump toward stout support at $19.50. Anyone looking to add some rounds might want to be ready as we'll likely be there tomorrow, too:

I mentioned this chart of Ivars', too. As we've discussed here often, the key for silver in 2014 is in breaking out of this channel. We nearly made it a month ago. Will me break it next time? (thanks, Ivars!)

And back on Monday I warned you that, since the HUI had closed below it's 200-day MA, that a move to the 100-day was likely. Well, we got it! Now watch tomorrow. The index will test the 100-day at 218. It may even trade below it for a while. The key will be whether or not it can rebound and close back above the 100-day. If you've been looking for a dip to buy the miners, this is likely it. Note that the RSI is reaching an oversold extreme, too.

Just a few other items. Click this link for a chart of the U.S. monetary base. Note the slope of the line. Do you see a "taper". Me, neither.

Here's the link for tomorrow's A2A with Andy Hoffman:

And please, please, please make the time to listen to today's Coghlan Capital webinar with Andrew Maguire. This was a one time event and the link will only be up for a few days, so if you don't listen to this now, you're going to be SOL.

Then, as I've told you countless times, IF YOU ARE TRADING THE PMS, you are absolutely crazy/suicidal if you're not using the "Turd's Army" service. Yes, I realize that it's expensive. It's also the most important subscription you will ever have. Let's put it this way...I have my moments. I wouldn't have this site/service if I didn't and some folks accuse me of being a witch. But, for $10/month, I blew it. I was on vacation and completely missed the peak of $1392. Through this negligence I even cost myself over $1000. Andy, on the other hand, KNEW that the peak was coming because the sovereign physical bids were not following the paper price up much past $1320. He was right, I was not. You get what you pay for.

Besides the daily trades, his weekly "Commentary" is worth the price of admission all on its own. Again, if you're an active trader OR just dying to have the best information possible, I urge you to join. You can do so by clicking the "Hat" ad on the right side of this page or simply clicking here:

OK, that's it for today. Stay alert and, if you're willing to add to your stack again, get ready for what I think will be the final dip of this current scheme.



Mar 26, 2014 - 4:09pm


First First?

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:12pm


My first second.

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:15pm


Well well now. Can I get a harumph?

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:16pm

Monkeys thwarted

They tried to break the 200-day on the Globex. Suddenly price has turned. Why? Could this be the reason??

BREAKING: Citigroup, Zions Bancorp fail Fed stress tests

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) March 26, 2014

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:17pm


In this podcast, I DO NOT group good people like David Morgan into the "useful idiot" group. I simply used him as an example of December bearishness.

The True Idiots are the Eilliot Wavers etc who see nothing but the Cartel-painted charts and then do The Cartel's dirty work by calling for new lows.

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:18pm

Fourth and long

You don't get 6 points for getting the ball to the 99 yard line. You need to get it to the end zone. Stackers need to keep their eyes on the end zone silver66

freemarkettrader TF
Mar 26, 2014 - 4:26pm

Don't Worry...

...the monkeys will regroup and break it tonight in thin trading. Probably at the usual 3am ET

Roy Centralia
Mar 26, 2014 - 4:28pm

the struggle . . .

"Fight on my men, Sir Andrew says

A little I'm hurt, yet not slain

I'll just lie down and bleed awhile

Then I'll rise to fight again."

--The Ballad of Sir Andrew Barton

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:36pm
Mar 26, 2014 - 4:40pm

Anyone have a favorite Max

Anyone have a favorite Max Pain source for options on Comex futures?

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:40pm


O'bummer probably didn't even notice that he had one fan

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:48pm


I think narcissists ALWAYS notice when they are not adored by the sycophantic hordes, but they blame everyone else instead of the man in the mirror...

Mar 26, 2014 - 4:55pm

Full disclosure

I just finished listening to this completed podcast. Three things:

  1. It's pretty good.
  2. It's timely with the bottom coming tomorrow or Friday.
  3. All of the Andy Maguire and Turd's Army stuff needs wide distribution.

Because of those three items, I think I'll make an exception and flip this to a public thread by early tomorrow. That said, YOU are my only priority so if anyone strongly objects, just let me know via the comments of this thread.


Mar 26, 2014 - 4:57pm

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:01pm

GLD 2-step

All of the gold added on Monday has been taken right back out. "Inventory" down today by another 1.8 mts to 816.97. Exactly the same tonnage as last Friday.

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:01pm

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:05pm

Silversooner Uke update

He emailed me this earlier. I hope he doesn't mind me posting it...


Here is some more info to fill in the blanks... Russia is continuing a massive build-up on their western border. What is really interesting is that a lot of this is northeast of Kiev in a region that indicates Kiev itself may be an objective vs the bigger eastern cities. Check out this page... you will need to cut and paste into a translator and Google translate doesn't work real well...try I think the Air France story on zero hedge this morning indicates that we are very close. Either the flight interfered with planned flight ops or the over-fly path would show that things are imminent.

I still think there will be a trigger event. I'm not sure on timing but I think it could be imminent. Whatever is planned has to get underway well before the planned May 25 elections but I think we are much closer.

A friend (and an associate of our business in Ukraine) is married to a regional manager of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU). It is from her that we got a cryptic message on Monday that they are expecting "a visit" to the Donbass (southeast region). I've asked the Mrs to follow up and see if she can/will elaborate. Obviously, she has to be careful what she can say but it helps in reading the tea leaves.

Anyway, I'm just connecting the dots and using my military studies and experiences as well as my Ukrainian connections to do a little TA on what we are seeing. EVERYTHING is pointing to an imminent incursion. BTW, the Ukrainian army (those that choose to fight) will get rolled... their readiness is absurdly poor and they have to beg for food door to door from the locals.

I hope to have more details this afternoon.


Also this 1422GMT update:

Other tells have been comments out of NATO as well as Woody and Biden earlier this week.

It will take a little time for this new equipment to get off loaded, prepped and ready to roll, but this weekend could be realistic.

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:17pm

Post it!

My vote is to make your podcast public. I've not listened to it yet, but I have this undying respect for people making their own way, starting a business, creating opportunity for others. Anything you can do to promote your business, your success will always get my vote AND my $10. Thanks for your hard work. Tas

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:33pm

Bill Murphy on Kitco’s Daniela Cambone

Lemetropole cafe snippet...

Diatribe time with Inputs and comments…

*Veteran Café members know that I have been a big fan of Kitco’s Daniela Cambone. No more. I have sent her much from the GATA camp the past couple of weeks and she refuses to publish it, or even acknowledge my emails. I spent an enormous amount of time on the Daily Bell piece, now up at The Matisse Table, and yet she did not even acknowledge me sending it to her. Heck, our adversary Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley even referred to it in his daily missive. Enough is enough…

Hi Daniela,
You are among the biggest disappointments I have encountered in 15 years. As much as I like you personally, I am disgusted with you, Bart, and Kitco for not putting up what GATA has to say. Yet you seem to relish Jeff Christian who publicly calls CP, me, and John Embry "liars," and does so every chance he gets. You even support his public gatherings with Bloomberg ... and organization in which their gold reporter, Claudia Carpenter, told the three of us in London 4 years ago she was forbidden to mention GATA.

The gold market is going to blow up some day and be the biggest financial market scandal in US history.

When it does, do not even think about asking me for an interview. You can revert to Mr. Christian for some bogus explanation..

I still wish you well, but want nothing to do with you all.

What a bummer you all turned out to be.
Take care

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:41pm

@ Bill Murphy

Disappointing, frustrating, and countless other emotions warranted no doubt.

I would be very surprised if not responding was Cambone's call though.

Alas, few have the guts to resign on matters of principle.

Be that as it may, go GATA!

Mar 26, 2014 - 5:55pm


Well I just listened to Andrew McGuire's webinar. What a waste of time. It's nothing buy a ONE HOUR commercial for his services.

Maybe my expectations were in the wrong place. I was hoping for some actionable information, and got nothing but "this is how the markets are manipulated", "this is what I monitor", "and this is why you need to subscribe".

At the 37:30 minute point he does talk about the current price and where he thinks it's going long term, but that first 37 minutes was painful. Reminded me of a Porter Stansberry piece.

Sorry to rain on Turd's parade but that's the way I see it. If you are looking to subscribe, then by all means listen. If you are looking for actionable information on the current markets, don't waste your time.


Mar 26, 2014 - 6:16pm

I don't mind...

...and thanks for the redaction.

WHEN this incursion happens, it will not be presented as a Russian annexation --rather, it will be to restore the pre-coup, constitutional government. We'll hear Yanukovych, but he won't be going back to the Presidency. However, he will be used to give Putin the "legitimacy" cover and turn the talk of "sovereignty and territorial integrity" on its head. Russia took the hit from unilateral action in Crimea, but the next phase is going to be deflected--that's why ole 'Yanny has already made his two very-scripted public statements.

Mar 26, 2014 - 6:27pm

Well you're certainly entitled to your opinion

I thought it was great, however.

Mar 26, 2014 - 6:46pm

Who do you bank with?

I've always wondered where stackers bank? I bank with citi but the largest majority of my cash and wealth is kept outside of the system. I bank with citi because they are 50ft from my front door. I basically carry the notion whatever they have I can one day lose so I don't worry about it but I'm worried I could be supporting someone else with my money instead of them but here in Chicago the choices are limited and I will never bank with those fuckers at Chase.

PS- Look at that 1300 line hold! they've really tried to smash price here but it hasn't been working. Almost makes you think that something un-containable is coming, and soon... they are getting no traction on these smashes.

Clarki Stomias
Mar 26, 2014 - 7:08pm

RE: Bill Murphy on Kitco’s Daniela Cambone

We knew where Kitco stood last October when they readily posted Christian's smear-job on Maguire but then never posted his full rebuttal. They are owned. Cambone's current behavior, then, comes as no surprise. Good for Bill.

Dark Horse TF
Mar 26, 2014 - 7:35pm

@Turd - We have been warned

Hi Turd

Thanks for the great work.

I posted on Monday about the possible coincidental timing of the 2008 world market crashes only months after the Russian "invasion"* of Georgia (see below)

President Obama has made a highly relevant statement on Tuesday:

Speaking at the close of a nuclear security summit in the Netherlands, Mr Obama said any further military action on Russia's part would be a "bad choice" and would result in more sanctions.

"Those will have some disruptive effects to the global economy, but they will have the greatest impact on Russia," he warned.

My question for pondering:
Is the highly likely further "invasion" by Russia into Ukraine/Maldova et al the precursor for the US/EU to unleash economic sanctions that will likely cause "disruptive effects to the global economy" so that an impending crash of the debt/derivative/fiat system can be blamed on Russia...not the FED/CB-Squid?

I believe so.


What fascinates me is the identical scenario (and I mean almost play by play) that occurred between Russia in Georgia in 2008, to what is occurring now in the Ukraine, and potentially Moldova.

The Georgian crisis occurred only months before the world market crashes of Sep/Oct 2008.

Back then, Russian ethnic speaking parts of Georgia (eg Trans-Dniester of South Ossetia) wanted to break away and return to Russia.

Putin swept in with Russian forces, to ‘protect’ the Russian speaking majority by installing “peace keepers”.

The EU considered sanctions, but decided against any real action due to their fear of economic instability to the EU if Russia affected their gas and oil imports.

The US verbally condemned the Russians but did not do anything in particular. They were worried about escalating a war.

In short, Russia obtained strategic land ie the ability to have their Military forces in countries that were moving closer to the west with little to no direct international military ramifications. No doubt there was also a number of strategic implications to their gas, resources and oil empire.

The only effect seemed to be financial warfare against the Russian Ruble and Sharemarket when foreigners began fleeing to safety havens.

In Todays case, again Russia has annexed a strategic land mass being Crimea, with little or no issue.

Considering the ‘coincidence’ of the Georgia invasion timing, I believe Russia knew the EU and US were too financially vulnerable in 2008 to actually do anything.

Does this say something again about the state of the world financial systems? Could another collapse be months away?

If Russia pushes further east into the Transdniester region of Moldova it seems the system may be in much worse stead then we actually know.

Ps. and Icahns calling for a crash...if that comes as any validity :)

*Invasion ...or ensuring a balance of power in the world

Dark Horse
Mar 26, 2014 - 7:57pm

Very thought provoking

An interesting connection of dots.

Mar 26, 2014 - 8:19pm


I was disappointed as well.

I was expecting to be spoon fed trades, learn all of Andy's techniques, and ride my account to infinity and beyond on the back and talent of another man.

For free.

Mar 26, 2014 - 8:32pm

here come the usual suspects... (big event close??)

A double agent, or double secret agent, is a counterintelligence term used to designate an employee of a secret service or organization, whose primary aim is to spy on a different target organization, but who in fact is a member of that same target organization themselves.


Often used to provide what is actually disinformation . . .

Dark Horse
Mar 26, 2014 - 8:36pm

JPM Silver, FED Stress tests and Overleverage

Interesting thought:

With several banks failing the FED stress test and parts of the system looking extremely dodgy ie China
does anyone else believe that JPM has been hording physical silver the last few months as the only way to de-leverage without tipping off the market??

My spidey senses are tingling!!

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