TFMR Podcast - Ned Naylor-Leyland of Quilter Cheviot Investment Management


Our old pal, Ned, stopped by Turdville yesterday for a wide-ranging discussion which included:

During the podcast, Ned mentions some great new charts provided by Grant Williams out of Singapore. Grant's entire report can be found here and I strongly encourage you to read it: The section of the report that really got Ned's attention is copied below, along with the charts that Grant included:

Last week's edition of Things That Make You Go Hmmm..., "Twisted (By The Pool)," was missing three charts that would have driven the point home like a piledriver. They include two of my favourite charts, and I have referenced them many times.
This time I simply forgot to include them.
Luckily, my buddy Nick Laird is far more on his game than I am, and he pinged me immediately to point out my oversight and then kindly updated the charts for me.
I include them here once again and offer my thanks to Nick for his generosity.
I have said it before, and I'll say it again — if you follow gold and silver, you absolutely need to be familiar with Nick's wonderful website, It is by far the best repository of precious metals charts anywhere in the world.
So, without further ado, I give you the charts of the 5-year average intraday movement in gold, the LBMA intraday gold fix, and the LBMA overnight gold fix.
Please pay careful attention to these charts. They speak volumes.

Ned and I hereby invite any and all members of the "No Manipulation Club" to explain how these charts are possible in a free and fair market.

Have a great day and enjoy the podcast.



Dec 12, 2013 - 12:16pm

Dec 12, 2013 - 12:17pm

And Ned also mentions these posts from Koos

(Look, I recognize that the guy's name is actually Yongding Yu...but...I can see where it's difficult to take seriously someone who, in The West, shows up as Professor Yu YongDing. Though no more challenging, perhaps, than taking seriously someone whose own mother now calls him "Turd".)

arch stanton
Dec 12, 2013 - 12:17pm


except for turd who doesn't count

bim jeam
Dec 12, 2013 - 12:27pm


Unable to expand your charts.

Dec 12, 2013 - 12:32pm

Turd: If you want to drive


If you want to drive home the point, I would suggest you (or someone) produce similar charts for other commodities.

I have wanted to see such charts for five years now, ever since I was first introduced to the concept of ongoing interday manipulation.

Nigel Black
Dec 12, 2013 - 1:12pm

Your daily dose of propaganda

Yup, they are still at it:

Gold is just the tip of the 'Taper Tantrum'

Look no further than Thursday's trading in gold to see a market throwing a taper tantrum.

November's stronger-than-expected retail sales gave another boost to the idea the Fed could begin to slow its bond buying this month. The 0.7 percent rise beat the 0.6 percent expected but also shows that sales extended beyond autos, which were at a six-year high in November.

Dec 12, 2013 - 2:10pm

Great podcast!

I always enjoy listening to Ned give his thoughts, despite the fact that his damn accent always makes him sound so much smarter than the rest of us. Or maybe he just IS smarter than the rest of us! And kudos to you TF for the unobtrusive interview style, letting your guest fully expound on his points and information- well done!

Really big point, I thought, about the delay in starting the Asian exchanges giving China time to accumulate really significant amounts of metal at discount prices. Once these are up and functioning, it will be fascinating to see how the arbitrage shakes up the western exchanges. Once senses tectonic movements building below the surface.

Interesting, too, about the tight working relationship between JPM and the Chinese leadership. If they are privy to the broad strategy of these people, and the planned timing of events, it would put their recent huge gold long position in a bit of a different light... maybe it is not merely a short-term trading position to fleece the sheep for a quarter or two, but perhaps something much bigger. Hmmmmm...

Dec 12, 2013 - 2:16pm

Head and Shoulders

does todays take down negate the Gold head and shoulders set up from a few days ago--or does it just draw it out a couple more days assuming of course we do some bouncing tomorrow and Monday? I think you are saying today is just noise.

Dec 12, 2013 - 2:19pm

You should check the other

You should check the other post. The answer you seek is there.

Mickey TF
Dec 12, 2013 - 2:36pm

Head and Shoulders

Thanks, I was pretty sure but had to ask--my own charts show today a bit more "disturbing" -an analogy would be a football back being forced outside until he runs out of bounds-or sometimes when they go wider they get more room to go downfield (or is that upfield?)

anyway if this recent rally can hold it would support the next round of short covering. Would love to see HUI get green today before spx does.

Urban Roman
Dec 12, 2013 - 3:08pm

A question for Turdville

... what kind of trading account would I need to actually trade this phenomenon?

That is, the hold-overnight versus the hold-during-NY-London-daytime trade?

Ned Braden
Dec 12, 2013 - 3:17pm

Speaking of N.N. Leyland

An oldie but a goodie......

Dec 12, 2013 - 3:21pm


I use scottrade. I am entirely unpleased with them.

1. You can only withdrawal $500/day with your debit card.

2. You can only have a $2,500/day cash advance.

3. After they verify your bank account to accept deposits, they have to reverify it to do withdrawals.

4. To set a stop loss of any sort requires you to first buy the stock, then go back in and make a completely separate transaction.

5. The customer service is a 50 on a scale of 100. had better, had worse.

On the other hand when I make deposits they are now available instantly.

csquared13 rl999
Dec 12, 2013 - 3:26pm


check your inbox.

Dec 12, 2013 - 3:29pm



KOLD @ 66.72 & 65.60

JNUG @ 13.70 (yes, bottom hunting)

The purchase of KOLD @ 65.60 is very close to nat gas near it's high of 4.4x. Not a big fan of doing so but will hold this one overnight as I think the up move in nat gas is a little petered out and will move down a bit here. Given all the news about hellish cold weather in the US I only view this as a short term play, and think that there is justification in going long, provided the weather patterns continue. My .02, YMMV.

-Also - my theory is that I really dont need to make much in my trading - I am content with $100/day. My risk tolerance is fairly high as I am using all profit from bitcoin. I primarily trade things that allow me to go short or long; usd, treasuries, gold, silver, miners.

Dec 12, 2013 - 3:30pm

interesting podcast

Ned seems like a very nice guy to me.

SteveW Urban Roman
Dec 12, 2013 - 5:41pm

Urban Roman

... what kind of trading account would I need to actually trade this phenomenon?

That is, the hold-overnight versus the hold-during-NY-London-daytime trade?

The original study used market data without considering the trading fees so that the peculiar diurnal difference was shown.

I have no idea what the impact of trading fees might be.

Dec 12, 2013 - 6:58pm

bim jeam wrote: Unable to

bim jeam wrote:

Unable to expand your charts.


Dec 13, 2013 - 3:24am


sounds so classy when Ned says it

A very interesting session. Thanks TF

Dec 13, 2013 - 11:33am

Yes he is

"Today Ned Naylor-Leyland, a man out of Europe, with more than a decade of experience, a great veteran of gold, on the heels of stunning developments, with so much turmoil taking place around the world..."

Dec 13, 2013 - 11:44am
Dec 13, 2013 - 3:28pm

Picked this little baby up today

She is a beauty, will make a great paperweight at the office


Dec 13, 2013 - 4:36pm


Nice, so does that make you a "Paper Stacker"? Just kidding :-)

Dec 13, 2013 - 5:25pm


Is that quarter pounder 3 troy oz?

silver66 SteveW
Dec 13, 2013 - 5:30pm

quarter pounder

it is 4 oz

feels great in the hand, beautiful strike


cliff 567
Dec 13, 2013 - 6:49pm

Can I see the other side

nice looking coin.

Dyna mo hum
Dec 13, 2013 - 7:02pm
Dec 13, 2013 - 7:27pm

If Zero wants one of these...

He is going to have to step up his game!

A gold and jade statue of Mao Zedong worth more than $16 million was unveiled Friday, in the latest example of Communist China's indecision over how to commemorate its founding father's 120th anniversary.

The statue, 80 cm (32 inches) tall but weighing more than 50 kilograms, was put on display in the southern boom town of Shenzhen, China National Radio (CNR) reported.

Read more:
Dec 13, 2013 - 7:32pm

Is anyone taking action on the taper?

I need the spread and the under/over! I am betting they announce they are increasing by 2.8 trillion/month, that will knock gold down below 1000!

Dec 13, 2013 - 9:39pm

That stinky worm of Trader

That stinky worm of Trader Dan will have a hard time explaining that.

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