Jim Willie Discusses The Bond Bubble

115

Last week, Jim Willie offered his opinions in a one hour Q&A session with subscribers. In return, today he offers a wide-ranging discussion on the current state of affairs, particularly QE∞ and the U.S. bond market bubble.

This is a detailed, extensive discussion so I've decided to protect your sanity and your time by releasing it in two parts. This first segment is just under thirty minutes and in it Jim discusses QE∞, the folly of a "Fed taper", the pricking of the bond market bubble and the new prevalence of flash trading or HFT in the bond market.

I plan to release the second half of this interview later tomorrow or Friday, once you've had a chance to fully digest part one.

FYI...the two charts below are discussed and referenced by Jim during the course of this podcast.

Enjoy...

TF

  115 Comments

abguy4
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:08pm

Two-fer? I disgust myself

Now I'll go listen to my main man Willie~!

wildstylechef
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:08pm

ya BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1st

finally and what a day for first when the markets finally smell the coffee and realize that the goose is cooked. Thank god that I live in the great white north cause some wacko's have control of the US government. listening to them is just unbelievable for the justifications for their actions, bunch of 12 year olds that have been told that its past their bed time and are pulling a tantrum

AlienEyes
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:11pm

number 3

Number 3

DayStar
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:11pm

Go Furth and Conquer!

Furth on a TF thread!

bratlever
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:12pm

trillion dollar bond derivatives

Sure would like to know what the final % yield is realized with these crap derivative bond vehicles.

codesurfer
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:16pm

Thurd?

Can it be?

Nah... But Top Tenner Nonetheless :)

Wizard
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:44pm

Just a Gut Instinct

Since the first version of QE was introduced to it's current version, I believe some Off-Shore Accounts have grown by orders of magnitude

Just for funding the very thing discussed about opposite sides of the trade and was priced into determining how much QE to have in the first place

Or QE out the front door and Off-Shore Accounts out the Back Door.

The same way they distributed the 16 trillion out the back door and 700 Billion out the front with the Bail-Outs

$16 trillion in secret loans to bail out American and foreign banks and businesses during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/the-fed-audit

GAO Report>>>https://www.sanders.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/GAO%20Fed%20Investigation.pdf

W

silverwhere
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:47pm

Pimco's Gross: low interest rates may persist for decades

The world according to Bill Gross.

Pimco's Gross: low interest rates may persist for decades

By Sam Forgione

Wed Oct 2, 2013 12:56pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bill Gross, manager of The Pimco Total Return Fund, said on Wednesday that the global economy may be facing low policy rates for decades.

Gross wrote in his October investment outlook that investors should "bet against" expectations that the federal funds rate - the U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark short-term borrowing rate - will rise by one percentage point by late 2015.

"The U.S. (and global economy) may have to get used to financially repressive - and therefore low policy rates - for decades to come," wrote Gross, a co-founder and co-chief investment officer at Pimco, whose flagship Pimco Total Return Fund has roughly $250 billion in assets.

"Right now the market (and the Fed forecasts) expects fed funds to be 1 percent higher by late 2015 and 1 percent higher still by December 2016. Bet against that," he wrote in the letter entitled "Survival of the Fittest?"

https://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/02/us-funds-investing-pimco-idUSBRE9900YV20131002

.

DollarMenu2
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:51pm

Thank you...

Thanks for posting the JW podcast publicly.

SilverSurfers
Oct 2, 2013 - 1:53pm

6th?

Yeah, Top tenner!!!

Meh, what a ride!! yesterday down a buck, today up a buck, in silver, meh, from the pits of depression to the top of extacy. I dont mind volatility, but geeze, it seems totally mindless, no trend, just a total mind screw. Im gonna get that guy, who ever he is. Its a rollie coaster, and wez all being taken for the ride, day in, and day out.

Ohio Players "Love Rollercoaster"

10year yield 2.6ish off highs, flat lining, $Index sliding broke 79.8 on the down side as a new low, and there has been a series of low, like the cavalry comes to the recue each day to pick it up on its low, but the trend is down.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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