TFMR Podcast #9 - 8.12.13

16

Today, Turd covers the rally in prices, his concern over a not-so-Happy-Tuesday as well as technical targets for a continuation of the rally later this week.

  16 Comments

Aug 13, 2013 - 12:07am

OK, sorry about that

The podcast is now available again.

RationalMind
Aug 13, 2013 - 2:38am

The Interviewer is deliberately misleading the discussion

1. She says gold is in contango, not backwardation.

2. After Mihir completes his comment about the 8 week delay (and spot being higher than future months at the 2:30 mark), she introduces the Bloomberg article (and hedge funds cutting gold bets) by using the term 'short interest in gold'.

Fishy smell.

Oboma
Aug 13, 2013 - 6:01am

NO backwardation according to dan again

i think that trader that turd posted even said there was backwardation. seems to be a complex matter


Monday, August 12, 2013

Gold Futures' Spread Continue to Tighten

I wanted to provide a quick update for those who are following the "backwardation" talk out there.

I am currently showing the August, October and December gold futures contract all at the same exact bid. Also, the December has a mere $0.80 discount to the February. The futures market has still not entered a backwardation state but it is just about there. I will continue to monitor this and report on it should it occur.

Also, thus far I have not seen anything that would signal any problems with the delivery process for the August gold contract but one thing that does stand out is that J P Morgan continues to be the consistent, large stopper of gold for their "House" account. Morgan is acquiring a lot of gold.

It is going to be interesting to see whether they retender it before the month ends or at some point during another delivery month process but either way, they are acquiring it right now.

I am still watching that $1340 level in the December gold contract. So far it is proving to be formidable resistance. Strength in the gold shares is helping keep a very firm bid in gold but it is silver that is really proving a great degree of lift to the yellow metal.

That push through $20.50 is squeezing the shorts and it now looks as if the metal has a decent shot at testing $22.00.

Downside support for silver is first at $20.50 followed by $20.

Incidentally, gold is moving higher in spite of the fact that the US Dollar is stronger today.
valvend
Aug 13, 2013 - 10:44am

The Gold Shuffle

Here is a link to Zerohedge showing where JP Morgan, HSBC and Scottia Mocatta are shuffling the Gold. https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/201...

Aug 13, 2013 - 2:56pm

Really enjoyed the podcast Turd

I think we've all been kicked around so often, had price drop out from under us just on the cusp of an important technical level so many times, that we are all still having a hard time getting into this rally. Perhaps the lack of exuberance over our nice little 20% rally in silver is a mark of the maturation of the community. Regardless, I think your call that we need to get and hold above the 22$ level is right-on... some time above there, and the accumulated short fuel Andrew Maguire has talked about may start to catch fire.

Being mature is fine and all, but all I want for Christmas (and preferably before Christmas) is a nice little Commercial Signal Failure... is that too much to ask? I think not.

¤
Aug 13, 2013 - 8:21pm

That would start the year off nicely

P4...That delivery failure on Christmas would make my 29 - Jan. '14 SLW calls very green & happy :-)

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
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