TFMR Podcast #9 - 8.12.13

16

Today, Turd covers the rally in prices, his concern over a not-so-Happy-Tuesday as well as technical targets for a continuation of the rally later this week.

  16 Comments

Aug 13, 2013 - 12:07am

OK, sorry about that

The podcast is now available again.

RationalMind
Aug 13, 2013 - 2:38am

The Interviewer is deliberately misleading the discussion

1. She says gold is in contango, not backwardation.

2. After Mihir completes his comment about the 8 week delay (and spot being higher than future months at the 2:30 mark), she introduces the Bloomberg article (and hedge funds cutting gold bets) by using the term 'short interest in gold'.

Fishy smell.

Oboma
Aug 13, 2013 - 6:01am

NO backwardation according to dan again

i think that trader that turd posted even said there was backwardation. seems to be a complex matter


Monday, August 12, 2013

Gold Futures' Spread Continue to Tighten

I wanted to provide a quick update for those who are following the "backwardation" talk out there.

I am currently showing the August, October and December gold futures contract all at the same exact bid. Also, the December has a mere $0.80 discount to the February. The futures market has still not entered a backwardation state but it is just about there. I will continue to monitor this and report on it should it occur.

Also, thus far I have not seen anything that would signal any problems with the delivery process for the August gold contract but one thing that does stand out is that J P Morgan continues to be the consistent, large stopper of gold for their "House" account. Morgan is acquiring a lot of gold.

It is going to be interesting to see whether they retender it before the month ends or at some point during another delivery month process but either way, they are acquiring it right now.

I am still watching that $1340 level in the December gold contract. So far it is proving to be formidable resistance. Strength in the gold shares is helping keep a very firm bid in gold but it is silver that is really proving a great degree of lift to the yellow metal.

That push through $20.50 is squeezing the shorts and it now looks as if the metal has a decent shot at testing $22.00.

Downside support for silver is first at $20.50 followed by $20.

Incidentally, gold is moving higher in spite of the fact that the US Dollar is stronger today.
valvend
Aug 13, 2013 - 10:44am

The Gold Shuffle

Here is a link to Zerohedge showing where JP Morgan, HSBC and Scottia Mocatta are shuffling the Gold. https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/201...

Aug 13, 2013 - 2:56pm

Really enjoyed the podcast Turd

I think we've all been kicked around so often, had price drop out from under us just on the cusp of an important technical level so many times, that we are all still having a hard time getting into this rally. Perhaps the lack of exuberance over our nice little 20% rally in silver is a mark of the maturation of the community. Regardless, I think your call that we need to get and hold above the 22$ level is right-on... some time above there, and the accumulated short fuel Andrew Maguire has talked about may start to catch fire.

Being mature is fine and all, but all I want for Christmas (and preferably before Christmas) is a nice little Commercial Signal Failure... is that too much to ask? I think not.

¤
Aug 13, 2013 - 8:21pm

That would start the year off nicely

P4...That delivery failure on Christmas would make my 29 - Jan. '14 SLW calls very green & happy :-)

JannieEnglishTurdFan
Aug 15, 2013 - 4:06am

So that wasn't gold? I

So that wasn't gold? I thought it was! get twitter followers instantly

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:34pm
by tonym9, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:21pm
by NW VIEW, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:09pm
by ancientmoney, Jan 24, 2020 - 4:41pm
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:51pm
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:39pm
randomness