TFMR Podcast #9 - 8.12.13


Today, Turd covers the rally in prices, his concern over a not-so-Happy-Tuesday as well as technical targets for a continuation of the rally later this week.


Aug 13, 2013 - 8:21pm

That would start the year off nicely

P4...That delivery failure on Christmas would make my 29 - Jan. '14 SLW calls very green & happy :-)

Aug 13, 2013 - 2:56pm

Really enjoyed the podcast Turd

I think we've all been kicked around so often, had price drop out from under us just on the cusp of an important technical level so many times, that we are all still having a hard time getting into this rally. Perhaps the lack of exuberance over our nice little 20% rally in silver is a mark of the maturation of the community. Regardless, I think your call that we need to get and hold above the 22$ level is right-on... some time above there, and the accumulated short fuel Andrew Maguire has talked about may start to catch fire.

Being mature is fine and all, but all I want for Christmas (and preferably before Christmas) is a nice little Commercial Signal Failure... is that too much to ask? I think not.

Aug 13, 2013 - 10:44am

The Gold Shuffle

Here is a link to Zerohedge showing where JP Morgan, HSBC and Scottia Mocatta are shuffling the Gold.

Aug 13, 2013 - 6:01am

NO backwardation according to dan again

i think that trader that turd posted even said there was backwardation. seems to be a complex matter

Monday, August 12, 2013

Gold Futures' Spread Continue to Tighten

I wanted to provide a quick update for those who are following the "backwardation" talk out there.

I am currently showing the August, October and December gold futures contract all at the same exact bid. Also, the December has a mere $0.80 discount to the February. The futures market has still not entered a backwardation state but it is just about there. I will continue to monitor this and report on it should it occur.

Also, thus far I have not seen anything that would signal any problems with the delivery process for the August gold contract but one thing that does stand out is that J P Morgan continues to be the consistent, large stopper of gold for their "House" account. Morgan is acquiring a lot of gold.

It is going to be interesting to see whether they retender it before the month ends or at some point during another delivery month process but either way, they are acquiring it right now.

I am still watching that $1340 level in the December gold contract. So far it is proving to be formidable resistance. Strength in the gold shares is helping keep a very firm bid in gold but it is silver that is really proving a great degree of lift to the yellow metal.

That push through $20.50 is squeezing the shorts and it now looks as if the metal has a decent shot at testing $22.00.

Downside support for silver is first at $20.50 followed by $20.

Incidentally, gold is moving higher in spite of the fact that the US Dollar is stronger today.
Aug 13, 2013 - 2:38am

The Interviewer is deliberately misleading the discussion

1. She says gold is in contango, not backwardation.

2. After Mihir completes his comment about the 8 week delay (and spot being higher than future months at the 2:30 mark), she introduces the Bloomberg article (and hedge funds cutting gold bets) by using the term 'short interest in gold'.

Fishy smell.

Aug 13, 2013 - 12:07am

OK, sorry about that

The podcast is now available again.

Green Lantern
Aug 12, 2013 - 11:13pm

Yup, Dudley.   Looks like a

Yup, Dudley. Looks like a goose. Thanks for checking it out. Reading alternative media is sometimes alot of work. Have to do your own due diligence on every story.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Dudley Do-Right
Aug 12, 2013 - 10:33pm

GL - Re Syria Nuke Attack

GL, check this out: this story apparently a fake, planted by pro-Assad Syrian hackers into a UK TV online blog that they hacked into -

In the meantime, the item was picked up by the usual suspects, Godlikeproductions, beforeitsnews; also Iran's Press TV running with the story big time! The story of course was removed from the blog by Channel 4, the UK TV broadcaster that was hacked.

Wild or what?

Aug 12, 2013 - 7:45pm

Sorry everyone

We had to disable today's podcast for a few hours.

it will be back up later tonight.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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