TFMR Podcast #44 - Jackass on the Barbie


For a holiday treat, Jim Willie stops by for an informative and enlightening podcast.

Jim and I cover three main topics today:

  1. The recent takedown in gold and silver and the incredible physical demand which followed.
  2. News and behind-the-scenes events related to the recent G20 meeting in Turkey.
  3. The Fed's ongoing ZIRP and QE∞ and their total inability to exit the treasury market. Ever.

So there you have it. Nearly 45 minutes of uninterrupted Jackassian wisdom. Enjoy.

Have a great weekend!



May 24, 2013 - 12:10pm



May 24, 2013 - 12:24pm

Trolls vs Canaries

Two different creatures. One deserving of my time, the other, my IU button.

Here's how I set my radar filters for all the news items. The caveat is that my physical stack remains firmly in my possession. So, one filter is to keep out any postings that suggest otherwise with physical. I have invested too much blood, sweat and tears in the physical, that they are now 'family'. Even if they lie in their watery resting grounds.

Canaries are delightful creatures. Their bright colors and their chirps can alert us if we pay attention. Thus, Turd's posting on Spain's rout (and within that article, the Fed's loans of $1T to foreign banks, $700B to US banks) is one of those canaries. There will be many more of these winged friends in the days to come. Let’s spot as many as possible.

Exponents of TA (Technical Analysis of price charts) leverage said for trading and entry/exit points. I am not one of those that trade PM (entering/exiting) to optimize my physical stacks. However, for some of us, this is a viable strategy to accumulate fiat to stack. Good luck to fellow Turds pursuing this. A caveat – have yet to play the GSR ratio (in physical or unallocated). I have learnt not to put my unallocated in bullion banks (so, friends, no need to alert me to the dangers of unallocated).

I appreciate everyone’s efforts in interpreting COT/CCI. However, I liken this to be more like divining smoke signals than spotting a canary. Obviously, where there’s smoke, there’s a fire. And as good ‘fire fighters’, we need to be watchful. Fires will trigger the beginnings of TEOTGKE. Canaries signal the beginnings of TEOTGKE.

When the event comes to pass, our emotions may potential overwhelm us, especially for those who have anticipated this since the early 1990s/2000s. There will be a very narrow window of opportunity, nay, a sliver of time, after the event. Being super clear on how I can optimize my last preparations, and having the right materials (at hand) to influence and guide relatives/friends on the critical steps, is something I would like to have NOW. This would be a better use of my time, then battling Trolls.

Nick Elway
May 24, 2013 - 12:29pm

@JW Is Shiite Chiíta in Spanish?

From Google Translate

shiite in Spanish
May 24, 2013 - 12:31pm

Barrick Halted?

Wheaton too? Any News?

Chile halts Barrick Gold's Pascua mine

May 24, 2013 - 12:38pm


From previous thread.

XTY: Yes, I also have these two books.

Hazlitt and Heyak: They are excellent.

Also Dying of money and this time is different (good despite recent publicized excel issues)

As for trolls - overlap seems to want to plant in our minds that we should not hold as much physical Gold as we do. This obviously suggests that he wants us to sell our stash and/or not buy any more. This comes at a time when there are very real physical shortages out there. It is not beyond rational thought that that which we know cannot be printed or which is dug out at a slow rate; will soon show them to have no that would be game over. I really do think he is dangerous, a different kind of troll.

Once more unto the breach dear friends... we few, we happy few.

May 24, 2013 - 12:46pm

Halted trading

Chile blocks Pascua-Lama mine, fines Barrick for environmental violations

Chile’s environmental regulator has stopped construction and imposed sanctions on Barrick Gold Corp.’s $8.5-billion Pascua-Lama project, citing “serious violations” of its environmental permit.

The $16-million fine is the maximum allowable under Chilean law. It was applied Friday because the world’s largest gold mining company acknowledged that it failed to keep its promises to build systems for containing contaminated water.

May 24, 2013 - 12:52pm

TV Night At Zoltans

@Turd. I know the perfect format for the draw and it is already right here on the site. Not only can people watch live but they can chat back and forth and congratulate the winners (or boo and hiss if they prefer) while the draw is going on.

We had over 80 people in the room and there were no glitches or technical problems (at least for the first hour and the second hour problem was due, I think, to the program wanting me to upgrade to a full version of the chat software and even then it only was the sound that was the problem). This would be great fun IMHO.

Chat is the most under utilized part of the site. With the exception of a few regulars (and you know who you are) the room is often empty. We could have a Saturday night party to watch the draw, have a few drinks, and share some good cheer.

Maybe we'd start a tradition of getting together for drinks, even if only in cyberspace.


May 24, 2013 - 12:52pm

Hold on To Your Hat

Next week should be quite a ride Europe Opens $80 Trillion Shadow Banking Pandora's Box: Will Seek To Collapse Repo "Collateral Chains

This also ties into some of JW thoughts.

Hunt brother
May 24, 2013 - 12:54pm

Chile is mining unfriendly....

Last year Chile pulled the permit on Goldcorp's El Morro project.

I am no fan of Barrick, but avoid Chile.

May 24, 2013 - 12:57pm

Why I come to TFMR

Well, the last few days are as good an example as any -- but in truth there are very few weeks that would not serve equally well.

I must give another shout out to our host, Turd for the fantastically varied, passionate, dedicated and insightful commentary -- and for his skill in always finding new angles to approach and gain further understanding.

From my part, if there is not enough discussion of the specific points, indicators or news brought up in the Main Street thread headliner post, it is because I have become convinced of the artificiality of the USD construct. Whether the mechanism will be Jim Willie's Black Hole Tower of Babel, or the possibility brought up most recently by DPH that the Fed simply 'falls on the grenade' and first buys, then cancels all UST debts, it matters little. 'They' are struggling to keep the canvas coverings of the stage set in place. While this can (and will) go on longer than any of us would like, the warnings about the direness of the scenario that follows the collapse are not hollow.

Partly because of the consequences of monetary chaos, partly (mainly) due to the steps the .gov apparatus will take to hold onto power, it will likely be a time of great peril for many of us, regardless of domicile. It remains to be seen whether the increased (and growing, albeit all-too-slowly growing) global awareness has enough legs to allow for the development of an alternative, a 'negotiated surrender' by TPTB... <--- yeah, right, like that's going to happen.

But even in the 'lumbering on under the current paradigm', PMs will (eventually) regain something approximating real value. Under a paradigm shift to a gold/commodity-based monetary system, obviously PMs will do well (remains to be seen which specific one will do better, but all will do well). In revolution/anarchy/WWIII/'shelter-in-place' domestic authoritarian crackdown, PMs will do best when buried, but may also spell the difference between survival and oblivion. I suppose this is also the place to remind everyone as to the need for a balanced metals portfolio that extends across a range of atomic numbers, not just in the 10th-11th column...

And the posts helping me consider the relative daily/weekly/monthly/yearly/decade-ly probabilities of each ARE indeed helpful. Even those of 'Turdites' who post with less-than-honest intentions. Though we may disagree with some or many (and with each other), I am very proud of the group assembled here under Turd's banner -- and honored to be among the ranks.


Dammit, I was originally going to just give kudos to Dr. Jerome for an outstanding post on the previous thread. Now I've gone and tried to match it, and obviously don't have time to rightly do so.

RE: Lagarde -- well, either the absolute power corrupts absolutely, or for positions of absolute power, they need individuals of absolute corruption that can be yanked at will. It's certainly curious how abruptly the careers of IMF presidents seem to end lately... Are they running out of cutouts to install, is there a merger/hostile takeover about to be undertaken which needed such preps?

@DPH - re: UST cancellation by Fed -- that is the endgame. It's the Big Red Button. It would mean the open acknowledgement of unfettered, endless, immediate monetization of USG debt at will, and instantly turns the USD into an unbacked, pure fiat currency. Not that it isn't right now, but that act would instantly reveal incontrovertible evidence of such. It will be done, as THE LAST step before (or rather, as the first act of) hot war.

And by typing so damn long, I hope to have relinquished a top 10 spot, FURTHER irritating those who complain endlessly about the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. posts cluttering the beginning of each comment section. ;-)

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Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
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10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
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10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
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