TFMR Podcast #42 - David Morgan


On Thursday, I had the opportunity to visit with the very wise and experienced David Morgan.

David has been following silver for a long time and has likely forgotten more than I'll ever know. Fortunately for us, I was able to make his acquaintance a few weeks back and he agreed to stop by Turdville for this podcast.

David and I discuss the current state of the silver market, the physical demand and CoT picture and we even speculate upon how these imbalances will play out and what it might eventually mean for the futures markets.

I'm confident you'll enjoy this podcast and, just like me, you'll likely learn a thing or two along the way.



Mar 29, 2013 - 10:45am



Mar 29, 2013 - 10:50am

high on the list

ive always liked morgan's insight. he is a lottile more toned down in the sensationalism we see in a lot of metals analyts.

Mar 29, 2013 - 10:51am

Looking forward to listening

Looking forward to listening to the interview, Thanks Turd!! Happy Easter!

Antony von Clearwell
Mar 29, 2013 - 10:59am

happy holidays!

Happy holidays :)


and fourth.

Mar 29, 2013 - 11:00am


getting warm in here

(or 6th)

Mar 29, 2013 - 11:01am

Enjoy Morgan

4 th this fine Friday!

I mean 5 th never was good at math................

Mr. Fix
Mar 29, 2013 - 11:09am

Seventh Heaven......

Thanks, I REALLY like this guy...

Mar 29, 2013 - 11:48am

Excellent interview

I met and spoke with Morgan at the first silver conference in Coeur d'Alene back a decade ago, and he impressed me as a very honest, genuine man with a great deal of knowledge, understanding, and wisdom. That combination gives him great credibility, imo.

I've always liked Morgan's no nonsense approach, willingness to say it like it is, and alter his stance when the evidence calls for it. And while the overall picture tends to depress me at the moment, because of the nauseating bias and manipulation of the Ag market in particular, Morgan's explanations really help to put things in perspective.

Great interview, Turd! Thanks!

Mar 29, 2013 - 11:56am

Top 10!

Just had to try it out once...feels good. And it's Friday...gotta love that. Boat drinks for everybody!

And Happy Easter weekend to all

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:13pm
Mar 29, 2013 - 12:13pm

Cyprus moment amoungst SILVER analysists

So how many "experts" have not read & understood the Comex contract? Ie. convert to cash instead of delivery is part of the contract to trade. How many times have we heard that cash premiums had to be paid for lack of silver on the delivery month...

Considering the amount of disinfo from various ones we have read, this is a Cyprus moment amoungst silver analysists.

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:22pm

Had a question about direct deposit and cashing checks (Cyprus)

For someone under the $100k threshold:

Would they be able to cash a check greater than the $385, or whatever it is, limit?

For those above the $100k threshold of hell:

Would direct deposit, assuming it is still functioning, funds get the haircut as well?

Would they be able to cash a check greater than the $385, or whatever it is, limit?

Any thoughts, insights or information?

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:24pm

Great Interview, Thanks Turd/David

Haven't seen any comments on Harvey's observation that the first notice day for gold had huge numbers standing and silver had....... ZERO!!!!

Could it be cause there isn't any?


BIGNASTY beardeus
Mar 29, 2013 - 12:30pm


Heres a blurb from a news story that discusses some of the capitol controls. the possible checking ban is pretty scarry.

* Limits on cash withdrawals (currently €100 at ATM machine),
* restrictions on access to savings accounts,
* limits on paying by cheques (possibly a ban),
* restrictions on the use of credit and debit cards,
* and a ban on taking large sums of money out of Cyprus.

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:33pm

We have the situation correct

  • Precious metals are manipulated.
  • Fiat currency is based on a foundation of lies (dilution and creation out of thin air).
  • Fractional banking is based on trust but the trust is being abused.
  • Supplier nations are getting repaid in devalued "money".
  • The reserve currency status of the US$ is hanging on by a thread.
  • The leverage is too much and the system is going to all blow up. A reset is required to get to a sustainable system.
  • The powerful control virtually everything including the media.
  • The NEW system will require a physical component to keep it honest.
  • The physical component will almost certainly be precious metals as part.
  • The laws of nature/economics dictate that Physical will eventually win over Paper. One can't be printed to infinity.

But just like Turd has said many times: predicting price and timing together is virtually impossible. So stack, prepare and live life- but remember to get a good seat to watch the fireworks when it does hit the fan!

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:35pm



Dagney Taggart
Mar 29, 2013 - 12:41pm

Congratulations Turd!

Glad that you have a podcast with Dave. I've spoken to him a few times in Spokane and Vancouver. A few charming and well-spoken man.

PS. Hey Road: Good analysis. But now is the time to leave the sex-puppets behind. She's won't last in the next paradigm. And they are not as nice as they appear when she is naked.

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:44pm
Mar 29, 2013 - 12:56pm

Yes, indeed

As you can tell, I had never even considered the 1500 contract limit per account/customer when it comes to delivery. Explains a lot, doesn't it?

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:57pm

Good educational material!

Turd and David!!

Mar 29, 2013 - 12:58pm

The problem is...

13,000+ is the open interest from Wednesday as OI numbers are always 24-hours delayed.

Let's see what the next report shows.

Mar 29, 2013 - 1:22pm

Can someone please explain ....

... WTF is going on with the kitco silver chart? It is Friday, aren't markets open? I don't see anything anywhere in the news ...



Basil TF
Mar 29, 2013 - 1:25pm


"13,000+ is the open interest from Wednesday as OI numbers are always 24-hours delayed.

Let's see what the next report shows."

OK, let's see what the next report shows, but let's also bear in mind that, according to David Morgan, the CoT report isn't nearly as reliable indicator as it used to be.

As David said, the vast majority of trading takes place in the OTC markets rather than the futures.

Personally I have my doubts as to whether we should pay any attention at all to the CoT reports.

The Watchman
Mar 29, 2013 - 1:34pm
Mar 29, 2013 - 1:36pm

Great podcast, thanks Turd

Great podcast, thanks Turd and David.

Mar 29, 2013 - 1:37pm


It's Good Friday

CrazyCooter babaganoush2307
Mar 29, 2013 - 2:02pm

I see. So they opened the

I see. So they opened the market just long enough to jam it down fifty cents and then closed it? End of quarter stuff?



ancientmoney Counterfiat
Mar 29, 2013 - 2:02pm

@counterfiat re: Cyprus moment . . .

"How many times have we heard that cash premiums had to be paid for lack of silver on the delivery month..."


I can believe the cash premiums. It is "shut-up" money more than anything. Perception is critical. The shorts do not want people wondering why physical silver was not delivered to those wanting it, even when by contract dollars can be used. It smacks of the dreaded word, "shortage."

Mar 29, 2013 - 2:09pm

Thanks, Turd . . .

Morgan is as knowledgeable as anyone in the world on silver.

I don't know if you can swing this, but an interview with Ted Butler would be great! He knows the COTs better than he knows the palm of his hand (I think!).

While the COTs do not explain everything, they pretty much explain how silver gets priced in our paper-driven world.

Mar 29, 2013 - 2:51pm

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess