TFMR Podcast #41 - Andrew Maguire Discusses Gold Backwardation and Current Gold Price Trends


Today, we conclude our analysis of the current backwardation in gold by visiting with legendary trader, Andrew Maguire.

A couple of things before we get started:

  • If you haven't yet, I strongly encourage you to listen to yesterday's podcast with Sandeep Jaitly before you listen to this one with Andy. I posted Sandeep first for a need as clear an understanding of backwardation as possible so that you can give this your full consideration.
  • There are good people, like Trader Dan, who have looked at this issue and concluded that there is no current backwardation in gold. Perhaps it all depends on what you're measuring. All I know is that Sandeep and Professor Fekete are global authorities on this stuff and I tend to side with them. Reasonable people can disagree, however, and it is disagreement that helps to make a "market", whether it's gold, silver, stocks, whatever.
  • Andy will have more to say in March and he's promised to come back soon for another podcast. This particular podcast primarily deals with the current backwardation and the implications for price in the short, intermediate and longer terms.

And keep in mind as you listen...Andy is "boots on the ground" in London, the center of the gold trading world for the past 200+ years. The Comex in New York controls paper price but, as you know, the underlying fundamental going forward is global, physical demand and this takes place in London. Where Comex may physically settle 1,000,000 troy ounces (30 metric tonnes) once every two months, London allocates and settles that much physical metal nearly every single day. Therefore, spot vs futures backwardation is a big, big deal. It drives allocation and purchase decisions for many of the central banks and other sovereigns currently racing to convert dollars into hard assets. Therefore, you must fully consider the ramifications of what is happening and I'm confident you'll find that this podcast will promote your understanding of the situation.


p.s. Once again, I urge you to consider a subscription to Coghlan Capital, perhaps only for Andy's detailed and extensive, weekly commentary. He provides the reader with background and information you simply cannot and will not find anywhere else. Along with the commentary, you also get real-time access so you can follow along with Andy's daily trading activity as well as unbiased and objective technical analysis from Paul Coghlan. Yes, it's expensive but what service of real value isn't? At this critical time, it might be the smartest investment you could make.


Mar 1, 2013 - 7:13am

To clearify... The Comex is a Shellgame...w/phony books...

My meaning was NOT that the #'s by themselves are false... as a "legal document" I assume that w/o some explicit consent the parties involved are filing and filling out the form truthfully... my feeling is the "parties" as their defined within the document are not being abided to and that the BB (at times) are using straws and agents to give "misleading" indications as to their true bias... no offence to Turd or anyone intended... I do hope/expect that the large LS position does eventually lead to a PM reversal as the BB covers into rising prices... it does appear though that some parties are knowingly well/pre-positioned with knowledge as to the game plan... to often either by coincidence or design the miners indicate the direction of PM's when I would think it should be the opposite...

Mar 1, 2013 - 7:10am

My finances are about to experience a three car pile-up

Car number one - PM investments going down.

Car number two - The hive is expanding by one.

Car number three - a long delayed house purchase.

Accident location May - July.

Mar 1, 2013 - 7:01am

Cominskys rant

Is his best ever; really.

He should teach?!

Mar 1, 2013 - 5:06am

GSR..May be briefly, but

GSR..May be briefly, but right now the uptrending fork has been confirmed, and the wedge broken to the UPSIDE. This is today's chart.

This is chart after yesterday close.

Mar 1, 2013 - 3:54am

Debt ceiling deadline March

Debt ceiling deadline

March 27


Japanese bonds risk collapse April 2013, Max Keiser predicted as well as Jim Rickards IIRC...

I believe Keiser, not Bernanke or that other idiot Tim Geitner. Why listen to the ones who are wrong over and over again?

Mar 1, 2013 - 3:27am

just some thoughts

1) There is just no way the fundamentals tell me to buy equities.

2) Gold / silver 6,000 years old vs. Federal Reserve Note fiat since 42 years ago. The choice of money is simple.

3) Read the public comments posted online under any financial crisis article - the majority point of view is overwhelming and convincingly similar to the TF pm's site.

4) Bernanke is a pathologic liar. Why hold his product?

Mar 1, 2013 - 2:49am

Jim has a message for trolls

Jim has a message for trolls on Turd's site and some other great stuff as usual :)

Video unavailable
Mar 1, 2013 - 2:36am

The Grinding

Generosity of spirit is certainly not lacking with those that post here, we have all seen how Puck is having well wishers respond to his dilemma. Being moody today has brought a few well wishers out of the wood works also. Thanks to Redwood, T, delacroix, PMBull, and certainly Jasper with his eloquence. Even Pegasus lightened my mood a bit although I am not sure his was a response.

One of the reasons for my negative "feelings" came from the realization that the 2013 PDAC is coming this march. Almost on cue with that show the miners hit the wall and take a breather for the rest of the year. Which allows for a lower price for the miners during summer (ouch!!!). Unless something serious happens by March 21, 2013 the metals will flounder more.

Sure Santa is a giving guy and TURD works practically for free maintaining OUR interest and free flow of information to one another. Its a great thing these guys do trying to educate us and keep we the people appraised on the goings on in broken markets.

IT's the fact that the EVERYTHING that needs to be changed will require EVERYONE suffering that is getting to me. The broken trust in the markets needs fixing, its the financial illiteracy that the School system must promote to keep equities running and the governments need us to be lazy and uneducated so they can manipulate our savings when we give our funds to the market hoping to make a buck so we can pay more government taxes.

It may be time to take a break. Maybe hitch a ride on the rails and make some tramp art for a few years, join a commune and make some free love with a hippy grandma, or self medicate for an extended period 0f time. The choices seem endless, its all got to be better than trying to figure out who is getting all the gold.

Mar 1, 2013 - 1:54am

For Puck: a Legal non invasive treatment

These days Cancer has many treatments that are of great use and benefit, this is one treatment that is inexpensive and does work. Assuming that you do not smoke, Salvestrols work very well, and yes I have had personal experience within my family regarding this product. Three people with differing forms of disease have benefitted two with full remission and all with a lowering of Blood pressure, 2 are type II Diabetic. The "Provide" would be of great use with larger tumours but will not effect you adversely if you took it with the Salvestrols. If you are interested I have set up a Youtube playlist with Dr. Dan Burke providing a lecture of what the product does.

Video unavailable
Mar 1, 2013 - 1:02am


Monkey business.

Video unavailable

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