TFMR Podcast #41 - Andrew Maguire Discusses Gold Backwardation and Current Gold Price Trends

135

Today, we conclude our analysis of the current backwardation in gold by visiting with legendary trader, Andrew Maguire.

A couple of things before we get started:

  • If you haven't yet, I strongly encourage you to listen to yesterday's podcast with Sandeep Jaitly before you listen to this one with Andy. I posted Sandeep first for a reason...you need as clear an understanding of backwardation as possible so that you can give this your full consideration.
  • There are good people, like Trader Dan, who have looked at this issue and concluded that there is no current backwardation in gold. Perhaps it all depends on what you're measuring. All I know is that Sandeep and Professor Fekete are global authorities on this stuff and I tend to side with them. Reasonable people can disagree, however, and it is disagreement that helps to make a "market", whether it's gold, silver, stocks, whatever.
  • Andy will have more to say in March and he's promised to come back soon for another podcast. This particular podcast primarily deals with the current backwardation and the implications for price in the short, intermediate and longer terms.

And keep in mind as you listen...Andy is "boots on the ground" in London, the center of the gold trading world for the past 200+ years. The Comex in New York controls paper price but, as you know, the underlying fundamental going forward is global, physical demand and this takes place in London. Where Comex may physically settle 1,000,000 troy ounces (30 metric tonnes) once every two months, London allocates and settles that much physical metal nearly every single day. Therefore, spot vs futures backwardation is a big, big deal. It drives allocation and purchase decisions for many of the central banks and other sovereigns currently racing to convert dollars into hard assets. Therefore, you must fully consider the ramifications of what is happening and I'm confident you'll find that this podcast will promote your understanding of the situation.

TF

p.s. Once again, I urge you to consider a subscription to Coghlan Capital, perhaps only for Andy's detailed and extensive, weekly commentary. He provides the reader with background and information you simply cannot and will not find anywhere else. Along with the commentary, you also get real-time access so you can follow along with Andy's daily trading activity as well as unbiased and objective technical analysis from Paul Coghlan. Yes, it's expensive but what service of real value isn't? At this critical time, it might be the smartest investment you could make. https://www.coghlancapital.com/daytrades-application?ak=turd_army

  135 Comments

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Karankawa
Mar 1, 2013 - 8:46pm

Not sure if this has been posted ...

But I applaud people that point out every effort governments use to make their 'subjects' dependent on them, even more so when they use reality and humor in doing so.

DON'T PEE YOUR PANTS!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uyXY_y1TZfY

redwood
Mar 1, 2013 - 8:37pm

@Puck

I don't spend much time on Main, but feel I want to respond to you anyway.

Our bodies no matter how much we want to simplify cannot be condensed to defining it as a dysfunction with the immune system, the nature of our diet, the emotional stressors in our lives and all that we see and hear about it. Individuals are discrete entities, sharing many similarities but also dissimilarities with the person next to us. This will be a highly personal and at times difficult journey. It may be brief (benign has not be ruled out yet) it may be long You will have compassionate caregivers or you may not. Take each step carefully, with as much calm and reserve as possible. Listen to yourself, your doctor, your family and then make the decisions that only you can make, and then please have peace with your decision(s). The best to you and your family.

tpbeta
Mar 1, 2013 - 8:07pm

Disturbing problem is...

...there doesn't seem a great deal of room for honest disagreement on this one. Either Andrew Maguire is incompetent/ dishonest or else Trader Dan is.

Bill of Rights
Mar 1, 2013 - 8:05pm
Hammer
Mar 1, 2013 - 5:37pm

Cot - gold longs are still

Cot - gold longs are still steady while shorts are up sharply. Overall heavily net long (as of Tuesday)

JML-2012
Mar 1, 2013 - 4:06pm

They Will Appear, Behold!

New all-time highs in Ag/Au... at some point in time, hopefully sooner than later, we will bear witness as They Will Appear, Behold! Yes I'm basically looking for an excuse to post this amazing & beautiful acoustic jam. Akron/Family are amazing, but don't take my word for it...

Retread Sessions: Akron/Family "They Will Appear, Behold"

Song title derived from Chapter 14 "The Horse Dance" from Black Elk Speaks https://www.firstpeople.us/articles/Black-Elk-Speaks/Black-Elk-Speaks-The-Horse-Dance.html

Ha! Just found another on-topic connection, first few line's lyrics -

"I cannot make you

understand my soul,

by painting it GOLD.."

have a groovy weekend Turdville

atomic180
Mar 1, 2013 - 10:27am

Is this the TRUE correction...

PM's back out of favor but soon to be awaken... little do they know that under their feet the BULL MARKET is stiring... will ELVIS please leave the building...

onealpha
Mar 1, 2013 - 10:20am

@Golden Buffalo

Thanks for posting the second article. I enjoyed it and always like to hear the neutral and bearish views. The first article I did not care for as it was lacking substance aside from the Einstein quotes. The future is not written, so we should always be willing to see with both eyes open. Thanks

SilverSurfers
Mar 1, 2013 - 10:20am

@ jasper

The Matrix - Follow the White Rabbit. . .

Curious how morphius offer neo TWO PILLS, the blue and Red.

Here is the inspiration ...

Jefferson Airplane - White Rabbit
R man J
Mar 1, 2013 - 10:00am

Nicely Illustrated Report on Above Ground Silver

Sorry if this has already been poste. I have seen others like this, but this is even easier to visualize.

https://demonocracy.info/infographics/world/silver/silver.html

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