TFMR Podcast #24 - Econ 101 with John Williams

71

I asked John Williams to spend a few minutes with us and help us review some of the basics. We cover the BLSBS, the CPI, GDP and the potential for hyperinflation. No one knows more about government statistics (and how they're manipulated) than John and I am very grateful that he took the time to help educate us.

  71 Comments

The Green Manalishi
Jun 29, 2012 - 3:35pm

John Williams

The Imperial March

"The Imperial March" by the Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra (HQ)
murphy
Jun 29, 2012 - 3:38pm

2 can be as lonely as one

2 can be as lonely as one

but in this case, the loneliest number is Thurd

The Green Manalishi
Jun 29, 2012 - 3:40pm

That was better than saying first

Ha Ha

John Williams - Cavatina (Live 1979)
exiledbear
Jun 29, 2012 - 3:41pm
bam
Jun 29, 2012 - 3:53pm

Great News!!

I have been worried lately that JPM's Ina Drew would be forced out and not receive the compensation she most richly deserves given the overall performance of the firm these last few years.

But no need to worry my free market friends, Ina walks away with her 21.5 million! Fortunately for the sake of all that is good and right, she was "allowed to retire", thereby securing her well "earned" booty....errrh savings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/jpmorgan-cushions-drew-s-retirement-with-21-5-million.html

The Green Manalishi
Jun 29, 2012 - 3:59pm

First and Second

Define Greed

Jun 29, 2012 - 4:06pm

WOWOWOWOWOWOWOW

I WAS EXPECTING A POSITIVE AND HELPFUL CoT. WHAT WE GOT IS TERRIFIC!

GOLD

For the reporting week, price fell about $49 and total OI dropped 4,874 to 413,618. Now, check this out: The Gold cartel net short position was reduced by 19,531 contracts to just 144,170 and a net short ratio at 1.93:1. Again and for perspective, as recently as 2/28/12, the Gold Cartel net short ratio was 2.69:1. And check out the idiot specs: Large specs added net short 13,785 and the small specs added net short 5,746. Gee, I wonder who got fleeced (AGAIN) today??? Bahhhh, Baaaahhh. Baaaaaaahhh.

SILVER

The silver CoT is simply fantastic. Remember for context that silver plunged $1.55 and OI rose by 6000 contracts on 6/21/12. Even though OI fell back 3000 on Tuesday, check out the changes for the reporting week!

The Silver Cartel decreased their net short position by 4,943 contracts. They are now net short just 12,011 contracts and they have a never-before-seen-by-Turd net short ratio of 1.25:1. Again and for perspective, on April 5, 2011, The Silver Cartel was net short 56,414 contracts and held a net short ratio of 2.69:1. Even on 2/28/12, they were net short 44,593 and had a ratio of 2.32:1.

Remember, the final surge in the month of April 2011 was almost entirely caused by Silver Cartel panic short covering. They then realized that hey were trapped and have engineered the 14 months since to buy themselves time to cover in a more orderly (and profitable) manner. They are almost done as their net short position has now been trimmed by an amazing 85%.

​And here's one more for you: On 4/5/11, The Silver Cartel held 33,413 contracts long. This was 23.36% of the total open interest. On 2/28/12, they still held just 33,802 long but this was now 29.17% of the total OI. As of Tuesday, The Silver Cartel how holds 48,591 contracts long. This is an increase of 44% since 2/28/12 and it represents 38.51% of the total open interest.

HERE IS YOUR EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY: THOUGH A STOP-GUNNING PLUNGE THROUGH $25 IS STILL POSSIBLE, WE ARE VERY, VERY CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM IN SILVER. FROM THERE, WE WILL ALL EXPERIENCE A MOVE HIGHER THAT WILL BE BREATHTAKING.

survivalwstyle
Jun 29, 2012 - 4:09pm

7th heaven

right here, right now. this CoT and todays action has me hopefuLLy optimistic tOO turd. lOOking forward to listening to this interview. have a wonderful wEEkend.

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Admiral Ag Bar
Jun 29, 2012 - 4:32pm

Thanks Turd!

Standing by with cash hoping for a vomit inducing plunge before the rocket ride up!

Larry L
Jun 29, 2012 - 4:38pm

I need a nap

I hate to say it about John Williams and his expertise in economics but, I think I fell asleep during this hot and humid day while doing something yawnnnn....where was I? Where am I? I'm sorry I need to take a nap now. Nothing new here so I guess I will move along...yawn

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

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