TFMR Podcast #22 - John Butler, author of "The Golden Revolution"


Of all the podcasts I've recorded, this is certainly one of the most important.

Our pal, Ned Naylor-Leyland, introduced me to John Butler a few weeks ago. I'm grateful that he did because John's new book, "The Golden Revolution", is the most important book that I've read in quite some time. At just 200 pages, the book neatly summarizes the history of global sound money, the circumstances surrounding the exit of the previous gold standard and the likely events that will effect and implement the next, global gold standard. Read this book and you will begin to understand how and why this new gold standard is inevitable.

I implore you to purchase this book for yourself and/or someone else. Father's Day is right around the corner and it would make a terrific gift, too. Most importantly, John's book is indispensable in the preparation for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment and you simply must read it.


May 28, 2012 - 10:19pm

Cripes! Crazy stuff...

30 North Korean officials involved in South talks die 'in traffic accidents' Thirty officials of the North Korean regime who were involved in talks with South Korea have been executed or died in "staged traffic accidents," according to a human rights report. Got Geico?

May 28, 2012 - 10:20pm
May 28, 2012 - 10:21pm

Brussels could take control

Brussels could take control of struggling European banks under secret plans Struggling European banks could be seized and controlled by Brussels as part of secret plans being drawn up, it has emerged.

May 28, 2012 - 10:29pm

Weekly Reverse head and shoulder chart of the US Dollar.$USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p69349578099

If the US Dollar chart above was the Silver chart we would be pretty bullish. I might be reading this incorrectly, but it looks like the dollar has a shot at 88 ish.

May 28, 2012 - 10:43pm
May 28, 2012 - 10:49pm

Silver Update 5/27/12 Junk Silver

Brother JohnF

Silver Update 5/27/12 Junk Silver
May 28, 2012 - 11:27pm

JIm Sinclair's past predictions

pointed to Au at 1650 many years ago, knowing the deal was done for a slow and steady decline in the dollar; long before the collapse of Lehmans, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Wamu, IndyMac, Wachcovia....

1650 was based on the idea that the 'right thing' just might happen with the dollar pegged to that price or slightly above. The game has gotten crazy and is now unraveling in ways no one could have predicted, and is why for the past couple of years JS has referred to Alf and his higher numbers. No one knows how this is going to play out; hence the mantra: hope for the best and plan for the worst.

May 28, 2012 - 11:34pm

I'm sorry but

I could stand about 3 minutes of the silver video and then had to let it go.

its like an exercise in mental masturbation. especially examining short term charts.

Technical analysis is very good to do and sometimes it still works remarkably well.... but unless one always maintains an ongoing awareness of the macro fundamental manipulation game going on, technical charting will Burn you to death.

The best vision these days is to step back and look at the weekly charts and a slower,longer term outlook. and just see the bottom zone and buy there and see the top zone (and maybe sell some there,or not)

When silver was slammed down to 26 area in september 2011 , it was a shocking fall. and it bottomed. When it rallied in the next 5 weeks to the 35 area , it was slammed down again back to 26 area in december. Many folks were shocked again.

It rallied back to 35/36/37 area into late February and was short attacked again and slammed to 26 area again. At what point should we no longer be shocked. So far, 26 is a low zone and 36 is a top zone. Anything in between, like this video is just noise.

Some experts were saying a month or two ago, that IF silver falls below 30.... you will see massive Buying that wont stop until all silver is out of stock. THAT clearly did not happen in the last few weeks. (Sorry Andy H, would love to hear you explain that wrong call)

The whole game is impossible to forecast perfectly , not even by the best experts.

After all the technical and macro analysis that sometimes is right and sometimes wrong, I'm always left with the words of stackers as the last best advise remaining..... just keep stacking...and buy low,buy the lowest dips. That looks like the 27/26/25 area to buy , and forget everything else. Buy 28 if youre nervous about it.

What is it he's looking to analyze anyway. The PTB, the cartel, china, who knows who is shorting silver back to the lows, somebody is doing it. The stupidest idea to rely on now is that we have seen a triple bottom and it will never hit 26.50 again. Watch it hit 26.50 again. ....... or to draw these magic lines and say that IF silver crosses above this line, buyers will jump in and silver will go soaring. what a bunch a crap. After that, the cartel will whipsaw the price back down so hard idiot traders will be shocked once again.

The rigged game cant be figured out.

Buy some at 28. buy some at 27. buy some at 26. buy some at 25. buy alot at 24. dont wait for a break above 30 to buy. unless you like paying more. Technical charting shows a target zone. thats all it does. All those lines he drew are meaningless.

John Galt
May 28, 2012 - 11:47pm

Sorry but that's bullshit

Dent is a con artist and snake oil salesman. To compare his missed Dow36000 prediction with Santa is simply ludicrous.

IF The Dow had gone to 42,000 in 2008 or 2009, THEN your comparison would have some merit. As it is, leave Santa out of it. Leave Dent in the company of Prechter et al.

I don't disagree with your other points but having the Dow go to 36000, 10 years after the fact, based entirely on economic conditions that Dent failed to anticipate, would not make him correct for the long run.

May 29, 2012 - 12:22am

Junk silver update 7:49

fast forward to last few minutes...there's little junk silver left, with higher premiums, therefore spot price at 28 is looking to be a bargain...

May 29, 2012 - 12:26am

A big week for economic data

A big week for economic data geeks There are three big U.S. economic reports:

Jobs and unemployment for April.
This is the big one and will be issued at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. The consensus estimates are for the national unemployment rate to hold at 8.1%. Payrolls may rise by 150,000. IHS Global Insight sees payrolls rising by 165,000, arguing that April's gain of 115,000 new jobs understated the recovery's strength.
Institute for Supply Management's May manufacturing index.
This also is due Friday. And the consensus is for the index to slip to 54 from 54.8 in April. This is not a bad number. A reading above 50 means means the economy is still growing.
Gross Domestic Product
, due Thursday morning.This is a revision of the first-quarter estimate. Domestic grown is supposed to slip to a 1.9% annual rate, compared with an original estimate to 1.9%. It's not a great number, but the British are going back into recession, and other economies are weakening.
Also due next week:

Standard & Poor's Case-Schiller Home-Price Index, due Tuesday.
look for smaller price declines in 20 big markets.
The Conference Board's May Consumer Confidence report, due Tuesday.
Lower gasoline prices should help.
Jobless claims, due Thursday.
Look for a number around 370,000

Strongsidejedi Planters
May 29, 2012 - 12:35am

predictions on this week's econ data?

Thanks to Planters for that reminder:

Here's my comments:

Jobs and unemployment for April: Will fall short of recovery (seasonal adjustment will be to blame). My guess is that the number will be flat and insufficient to really signal recovery.

Institute for Supply Management's May manufacturing index. My guess is that the number will be flat also. Inventory was up in April. They aren't moving inventory in May either. So, there is no reason to manufacture more inventory.

Gross Domestic Product : Will also be flat because new home construction is still down. Road construction can only go so far.

Also due next week:

Standard & Poor's Case-Schiller Home-Price Index, due Tuesday. look for smaller price declines in 20 big markets.

The Conference Board's May Consumer Confidence report, due Tuesday. Lower gasoline prices should help.

Jobless claims, due Thursday. Look for a number around 370,000


this will leave room in either direction for FRB and FOMC to move rates.

May 29, 2012 - 12:40am

2cents on the Euro crisis

The Euro crisis is the most dangerous and destabilizing situation in our lifetimes.

Fukushima was destabilizing because of the calamity of the environmental contamination.

The Euro zone crisis is destabilizing because of the calamity of the planned nature of it.

Jim Willie's comments are stunning.

TF, if I could decloak to pay you I would. I can't without jeopardizing the safety of family and friends.

Therefore, I can just say... best wishes...all the best... and even though I try to stay off this addicting blog, I can't.

keep up the talk's our nation...not theirs.

May 29, 2012 - 2:20am

Adrian Douglas, GATA director

Thoughts and prayers for Adrian and his family. He has had brain cancer for a year and is in decline. Originally from England he has been in the US for many years and has been working against the PM manipulation/suppression for many years. I hope he hangs on long enough to see the breakdown of the Cartel.

Adrian Douglas' presentation at the Gold conference London 2011 part 1.mp4
Gold to $57,000, Silver Even More? Interview of Adrian Douglas Part 1 of 2

May 29, 2012 - 2:46am

GSR chart I use was not updated yesterday, but using Kitco

Live chart close values, it went down to 55,14 from 55,30. This is again bullish for silver (based on this : , even though silver price went down on a daily basis. This small contradiction may suggest market does not see/accept yet that the silver bull market is regaining composure .

thurd aye
May 29, 2012 - 5:17am

BRICS,not complete I'm

BRICS,not complete I'm afraid.The place where I live has 50% of the remaining Gold in the Earth.It is the 'S' you omitted in BRICS.I.e. SouthAfrica.Thank you.

Oh and a hat tip to 47,agree with you there brother.

"I'm the enemy of the enemy of the man who has no friend,when the tide comes in ,I'm the boat that can't get out."

May 29, 2012 - 6:38am


I like the way the threads meandered yesterday - a fitting day for talk to turn to higher concepts, especially freedom - this being what those sons and daughters of another generation fought and died for.

Like one of those great posts referred to - I also believe fear is a power which attracts (in much the same way love does) so was a timely reminder for me to get back to 'living in the light' so to speak. Maybe these things we believe we're watching unfold don't have to come to pass. Ask yourself - are you resigned (and have relegated yourself to mere bystander) to observe some apocalyptical event occur? I believe we create our reality (and maybe more directly and all encompassing than most are aware of) so if you believe these disasters will befall you then you may well get your pre-sent (sic).

My eldest (5 year old) told me the other day I'm funny 'like a clown'. While my mind is occupied with TPTB etc then it's detracting from me being her clown - I'm damned if I'm letting them have any more of her daddy. Not so much giving up the fight, just giving up the control the fight had over me.

Also, frustrating to see the left/right thing still rolling on - left/right of what exactly? Their game, that's what. They've dictated a system to you and conditioned you to unquestioningly operate within it - let it go, think beyond such limiting concepts and maybe we'll all find freedom. If you can't then at least have the good grace (quoting Rand's John Galt) to 'get the hell out of my way'!

Groaner T
May 29, 2012 - 6:59am

Mr T I agree

So many Gurus out there have gotten it wrong.. Not because of the fundamentals or their chart reading skills, but with the insidious criminal activity in all the markets, its impossible to predict..

Remember,, its their ball, its their game, its their rules, its their right to change the rules, etc, etc.. Do you still want to play and expect a fair game?? Wow I just convinced myself to get out the futures market.

May 29, 2012 - 8:11am
May 29, 2012 - 8:17am

US Dollar Chart Setup Hints Deeper Losses Likely Ahead

Commodities Aim Higher as Risky Assets Find Support, US Data in Focus

Commodity prices are yielding mixed results in European trade as traders wait for guidance from the US economic data set to establish near-term direction cues. May’s US Consumer Confidence reading and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity gauge are on tap, with expectations pointing to improvements on both fronts. Broadly speaking, data collected by Citigroup suggests US economic data has stabilized relative to expectations in May after three months of deterioration. This lays the foundation for stronger outcomes to buoy hopes that a firming (albeit unevenly so) recovery in North America can help offset weakness in Europe and Asia.

In the context of heavy selling across the risky asset space over recent weeks, this may help drive a recovery in sentiment. As noted yesterday, this would fall within the context of a general tendency toward corrective profit-taking on risk-off exposure accumulated over recent weeks. This bodes well for growth-geared crude oil and copper prices and may likewise offer a lift to gold and silver amid ebbing demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Upside momentum in the precious metals space may be limited however in that firmer data would work against QE3 expectations, denting the appeal; of alternative store-of-value assets. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher ahead of the opening bell no Wall Street, reinforcing the likelihood of a risk-on scenario in the hours ahead.

S&P 500 – Prices are testing resistance at 1331.70 marked by the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 100% level at 1347.70. Near-term support is at the 1300.00 figure, a psychological barrier reinforced by former resistance at the top of a broken falling channel set from the May 1 high, with a break below that exposing the October 27 swing top at 1292.90.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $90.86 // +0.20 // +0.22%

Prices put in a Harami candlestick pattern above resistance-turned-support at 90.14, the September 7 closing high, hinting a corrective bounce may be ahead. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance lines up at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low, with a push above that targeting 95.41 (another former bottom now acting as resistance at the February 2 low).

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1580.94 // +7.91 // +0.50%

Prices continue to consolidate above support in the 1522.50-1532.45 area. Near-term trend line support-turned-resistance lines up at 1584.56. A break above this boundary exposes the 1600/oz figure followed by the top of a channel set from late February, now at 1621.73.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.39 // -0.13 // -0.47%

Prices are recovering from support at 27.06 after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern to aim at resistance at 28.70. A break above this level initially exposes 29.71. Alternatively, a reversal through support exposes the 26.05-15 area.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices completed a Breakaway bearish candlestick pattern below resistance at 10241, the 100% Fibonacci expansion level, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up in the 10134-41 area, marked by the 76.4% expansion and the October 2011 swing high. A break lower on a daily closing basis exposes the 61.8% Fib at 10078.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.448 // +0.020 // +0.58%

Prices are mounting a recovery from support at 3.438, the 100%Fibonacci expansion. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance lines up at 3.537, the 76.4% expansion level. Alternatively, a break below support exposes the 123.6% level at 3.327.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

May 29, 2012 - 8:19am

Dollar Vulnerable

Dollar Vulnerable if US Economic Data Boosts Risk Appetite Recovery

The major currencies were little changed against the US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) overnight as thin post-holiday liquidity conditions and the absence of market-moving cues from economic data or risk sentiment trends left FX traders without a significant catalyst to spark volatility. The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly outperformed as Asian stocks advanced, pulling the sentiment-linked currencies along for the ride. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.9 percent after China’s finance ministry said it will allocate up to 2 billion Yuan per year to subsidize purchases of fuel-efficient cars, raising hopes the spending injection will boost growth.

Looking ahead to European trading hours, the preliminary set of May’s German CPI figures is in focus. Expectations call for the headline inflation rate to hold at 2.1 percent. A print in line with expectations will mean little for ECB policy expectations and so seems unlikely to produce fireworks from price action. Indeed, given the scope of aggressive Euro selling over recent weeks, the risks appear skewed to the upside in the event that an upside surprise offers a compelling excuse to drive profit-taking. France and Italy are set to hold bond auctions, but short tenor of the debt on offer (see below) means the results may pass with little fanfare.

Later in the day, the focus will turn to the US economic calendar. May’s Consumer Confidence reading and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity gauge are on tap, with expectations pointing to improvements on both fronts. Broadly speaking, data collected by Citigroup suggests US economic data has stabilized relative to expectations in May after three months of deterioration. This lays the foundation for stronger outcomes to buoy hopes that a firming (albeit unevenly so) recovery in North America can help offset weakness in Europe and Asia.

In the context of heavy selling across the risky asset space over recent weeks, this may help drive a recovery in sentiment, weighing on the safe-haven greenback against most of its top counterparts. USDJPY may prove to be an exception in this regard, where stronger US data is likely to translate into Dollar strength on the back of rising Treasury bond yields and fading QE3 expectations. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher in late Asian hours, reinforcing the likelihood of a risk-on scenario in the hours ahead.

Asia Session: What Happened









Job-To-Applicant Ratio (APR)






Jobless Rate (APR)






Household Spending (YoY) (APR)






Retail Trade (YoY) (APR)






Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (APR)






Large Retailers' Sales (YoY) (APR)



5.1% (R+)



HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)






Small Business Confidence (MAY)




Euro Session: What to Expect









German Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)






German Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)






UBS Consumption Indicator (APR)






Italy to Sell €8.5M in 183-day Bills






CBI Reported Sales (MAY)






German CPI (MoM) (MAY P)






German CPI (YoY) (MAY P)






German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY P)






German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY P)






France to Sell €8B in 91-364 day Bills




Critical Levels










--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

May 29, 2012 - 8:24am

(Courtesy Ed Steer/ Ted Butler)

Silver analyst Ted Butler's weekend commentary

"I would calculate JPMorgan as holding 11,000 to 12,000 silver contracts net short on the COMEX currently. This is the lowest net short position that JPMorgan has held since taking over Bear Stearns in 2008. While JPMorgan and the other collusive commercials on the COMEX are crooked beyond description, the low level of current silver short holdings by JPM does raise the possibility that they will not add on the next rally. Several subscribers have indicated they expect JPMorgan to add shorts, as they always have and those subscribers may turn out to have been correct. Time will tell, but the question will only be known after silver prices rally, not before. In that sense, there is no harm and no foul in waiting to see, especially since we have no other choice. Certainly, there are new factors at play that suggest that JPMorgan may quit manipulating the price of silver."

"On May 16, a judge heard oral arguments from JPMorgan to dismiss the class-action lawsuit filed against them for manipulating silver in 2008. (While I’m not involved in the lawsuit, it clearly follows my story line of manipulation). The argument advanced by JPM’s lawyers is that the outsized silver short positions could have been a hedge and as such, that would preclude manipulation. The judge will decide in due course. This is very similar to the fantasy that JPMorgan has tried to spread in their current credit derivatives debacle, namely, that the transactions in question were simply hedges and not propriety trading. This is clever, but deceitful on JPMorgan’s part. It’s all about parsing words to evade the truth."

May 29, 2012 - 8:33am

Gold Bar Demand in China

Gold Bar Demand in China Surged 51% to 213.9 Tonnes in 2011

While gold and silver fell marginally last week, the very large weekly returns in the gold mining sector may signal we are close to a bottom. The XAU and HUI gold mining indices rose 6.8% and 7.9% respectively. Strong gains in the XAU and HUI have often preceded market bottoms for gold and silver.

This week investors will look to China’s PMI and US non-farm payrolls to gauge the health of the world’s two largest economies.

A reminder of the sharp increase in demand for gold and silver, particularly store of wealth demand, in recent years was seen in the figures released by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association in Shanghai today.

China’s gold consumption rose 33% to 761 tons in 2011 and China’s silver consumption rose 6.8% to 6,088 tons last year.

China’s gold consumption rose 190 metric tons last year to 761 tons, Wang Shengbin, China Gold Association Vice Chairman, said in a speech in Shanghai as reported by Bloomberg.

China’s jewelry consumption jumped 28 % to 456.7 tons last year, gold bar consumption surged 51% to 213.9 tons and gold coin consumption gained 25% to 20.8 tons, Wang said

China’s silver consumption, including industrial use, jewelry and coins, rose 6.8% to 6,088 metric tons last year, the vice chairman said. The amount shows a surplus given China’s output of 12,348 tons last year, which gained 6.3%, Wang said.

Posted on website

The link is here.

Really- TF
May 29, 2012 - 8:37am

Re: Sorry but that's bullshit

Turd, I think you are right to say that comparing Dent's missed Dow 36,000 prediction is ludicrous compared to Santa's prediction. Dent's missed Dow 36,000 prediction is more comparable to folks like Butler and yourself saying gold will hit 12,000/oz sooner rather than later.

The man who stole a leopard
May 29, 2012 - 8:39am
May 29, 2012 - 8:39am

Cripes! What can possibly go wrong?

US special forces 'parachuted into North Korea' US and South Korean special forces have been parachuting into North Korea to gather intelligence about underground military installations, according to a senior US officer.

May 29, 2012 - 8:45am
John Galt
May 29, 2012 - 9:13am


For the record (and you can go back through every post I have ever made on this site) I have never been critical of Santa or Alf Field or any other prognosticator who "got it wrong" with the timing of their predictions.

My feeling is that many of these guys (including Turd) have a far better understanding of what's going on with these markets - certainly more than I do. AND, if timing gets off it's more a case of these markets being manipulated etc.

HOWEVER, at the same time I do try to keep an open mind by listening to other voices than just the ones who are telling me the things I like to hear. Sure, Dent seems to be way off the fringe, but at the same time what if HE is right, and simply off on his timing? (BTW, my Dent comment is rhetorical and NOT intended to expend any additional energy discussing by anyone here)

In the grand scheme of things the danger, IMO, is for any of us to make assumptions that only some ideas can be right and others that do not pass the initial sniff test (based on certain assumptions we hold near and dear) must be absolutely wrong.

For example, I have heard many times on different discussions here that there is NO WAY that interest rates can be allowed to rise because that would destroy the economy i.e. debtors already underwater would be crushed, while interest payments on massive government debt would go so far beyond sustainable levels as to implode the entire system.

Logically that assumption seems to be very correct. But it also assumes that the TPTB (operating behind the Fed) actually have the best interest of citizens and the economy in mind.

Just take a moment to think about who the real winners and losers would be in the event that interest rates are allowed to rise. The average citizen (especially savers) will get screwed, without question, but central bankers will fare quite well in that scenario since the resulting collapse will allow them to scoop up real assets such as real estate and PMs at deeply discounted prices.

This kind of crisis would have the additional benefit of allowing them to usher in a new global currency via reset - again to their benefit and not our's.

Maybe I've stirred the pot a little, but then again that's probably a good thing.

One thing's for certain: none of us really know what's going to happen, so when. So gathering together to share ideas is probably a valuable exercise to help each of us find our way through the darkness of the unknown.

May 29, 2012 - 9:28am
Really- John Galt
May 29, 2012 - 9:33am


How would savers be getting screwed if interest rates went up? Maybe I'm missing something but I thought interest rates sitting at 0% was bad for savers.


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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)

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