TFMR Podcast #22 - John Butler, author of "The Golden Revolution"

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Of all the podcasts I've recorded, this is certainly one of the most important.

Our pal, Ned Naylor-Leyland, introduced me to John Butler a few weeks ago. I'm grateful that he did because John's new book, "The Golden Revolution", is the most important book that I've read in quite some time. At just 200 pages, the book neatly summarizes the history of global sound money, the circumstances surrounding the exit of the previous gold standard and the likely events that will effect and implement the next, global gold standard. Read this book and you will begin to understand how and why this new gold standard is inevitable.

I implore you to purchase this book for yourself and/or someone else. Father's Day is right around the corner and it would make a terrific gift, too. Most importantly, John's book is indispensable in the preparation for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment and you simply must read it.

  222 Comments

Jdawg Marblesonac · May 27, 2012 - 11:47pm

History Has A Habit of Repeating

$10,000.00 it shall be. Watch and Wait

Eternal Student Jdawg · May 28, 2012 - 12:59am

Only idiots give in to this

Only idiots give in to this extortion. If they paid up, then another group would come along to roll the sucker. $10,000 might sound cheap, but in reality it's much more expensive.

One can defend against DDoS attacks. Sometimes cheaply, sometimes it's more expensive. There are commercial solutions out there. And some talented folks have rolled their own. But yes, it is done.

ivars · May 28, 2012 - 3:47am

@Yangster

The only book I know that is more or less readable is this-at least I have not found any more. Sornette and earlier Johanson seems to be the first and leading proponents of this approach, but I may be wrong. At leat I could understand part of what they wrote and it went very well along my intuition.

https://www.amazon.com/Why-Stock-Markets-Crash-Financial/dp/0691118507

There are followers in Russia, China, but their papers are in languages, obscure, difficult to find good ones.

Then You can browse through Sornette's website, Publications may be to see what fits Your goals better:

https://www.er.ethz.ch/publications/index

As there are many of them, I would suggest ( but these are my preferences) :

https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0106520v1.pdf

https://xxx.lanl.gov/pdf/cond-mat/9810071v2.pdf

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0812/0812.2449.pdf

https://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0220v1.pdf

All of them, however, include complex mathematics from physics and math.... Well, go through as many of them if You wish until You start to develop intuitive understanding what benefits You and what might be inaccessible.

May be its is better to watch first few video presentations- there are only 2:

https://videolectures.net/risc08_sornette_fcrm/

https://videolectures.net/ccss09_sornette_fbreb/

You have to work through these and see if it adds to Your understanding or not. It still very complicated , but in the middle of some parts some sentences suddenly makes sense also for a layman. I do not use term fractals ( i do not understand them well- except that they display scale invariance which is very important notion for the whole approach) so much as systems close to phase transition, virtually critical systems in critical state ready to switch to either phase but dynamically balancing in the middle, somehow maintaining equilibrium but are also prone to SLOW accumulation of UNNOTICEABLE effects that lead to HUGE PREDICTABLE disruptive events with all the consequences I tried to make some fantasies around in the post You refer to.

These sentences I come up with myself as I try to understand these analogies. It is a very complicated subject in physics and elsewhere and I find it difficult to master even if I have physics education. However, the behavior of such systems is intuitively easier to understand then the underlaying physics as thay mimic human behaviour in all scales!. I do not think there are simple enough textbooks nor widespread accept of these ideas which, as You may recall from James Rickards paper and is also suggested by Sornette, is to SCALE down the system, separate it into the boxes (NO!-TBTF banks, NO!- USA which needs more markets where deals are made in USD) , reduce globalization levels ( NO!- corporations) and interconnection levels ( think internet- ready to give it UP? NO! etc.) ...thus increasing the costs of integration but reducing the severity of crisis. Greed vs. fear. So far in human history, greed has always won, perhaps because there have not been accepted studies/theories to prove that cost reduction and fast growth as short term solution cause the heavy consequences of following crashes and wars. And there is not much time left to come up with some. But may be that is the way it should be in such systems and there is no way out- creative destruction. Forests catches fire from time to time which adds to its longevity and health.

ivars · May 28, 2012 - 3:51am

From 2010 lower GSR is always bullish for silver

I have been focusing on GSR quite a lot. Here is a historic chart showing how starting at least from 2010 lower GSR is always bullish for silver and higher- bearish. Instead of higher GSR being bullish to gold and lower bearish to gold. The relation between gold and GSR is not even closely so symmetric, and it can not be ,as so obviously , its silver prices that reflect ( create) most of the changes in GSR :

Image

For later reference, the chart is here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts

The Green Manalishi · May 28, 2012 - 4:33am

Going nuclear-free: Germany smashes solar power world record

Going nuclear-free: Germany smashes solar power world record.

Germany’s solar power plants produced a record 22 gigawatts of energy on Friday, equivalent to the output of 20 nuclear plants. The country is already a world-leader in solar power and hopes to be free of nuclear energy by 2022.

https://www.rt.com/news/solar-energy-record-break-332/

That's a lot of Silver

Revolucion · May 28, 2012 - 5:47am

BIG CHANGE IN CHINA'S CURRENCY

In 2009, the Chinese Government launched a pilot programme allowing companies in some provinces to settle imports and exports in yuan, he said.

Onshore yuan was abbreviated to CNY and offshore yuan, held in Hong Kong, was called CNH.

The pilot programme was progressively expanded nationwide.

In March 2012, the Chinese Government announced that all firms which had licences for foreign trade would be able to settle in yuan, Mr White said.

To facilitate the internationalisation of the yuan, China had signed swap agreements with several countries.

As was the case with New Zealand's free trade agreement, the swap agreement signed in April last year between the People's Bank of China and New Zealand's Reserve Bank was the first such agreement with an OECD nation.

"In simple terms, the Reserve Bank can borrow yuan when financial market disruption makes it difficult for businesses to access yuan to settle transactions with Chinese businesses and vice versa."

A similar agreement was signed with Australia in March this year and now the People's Bank had agreements with more than 20 countries, Mr White said.

While it was likely transactions would almost always be undertaken with the banking sector, the agreement did offer underlying support for increasing trade settlements between Australasian and Chinese businesses over a wide range of market conditions.

The Chinese Government had indicated in recent days it wanted a global yuan hub by 2015 based in Shanghai, effectively merging the "offshore" Hong Kong-based and onshore currency markets, he said.

It was also looking to expand the use of the yuan as an international funding currency, building on the CNH700 billion ($NZ147.4 billion) of deposits now held in Hong Kong.

CNH issuance last year totalled CNH191 billion, mainly by mainland Chinese state-owned companies and banks.

However, the issuance was increasingly by international companies looking to fund Chinese expansion. Ford, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Unilever and Volkswagen were all active in this regard, Mr White said.

Fonterra tapped the market in June 2011 for CNH300 million, to fund farm purchases in China.

The bond had a three-year term and was priced at 1.1%, then the lowest coupon of any foreign corporate issuer to date.

Over time, China wanted to see its pool of capital diversified away from central bank deposits, and allowing foreign companies to access yuan liquidity would help achieve that.

In recent months, London had been positioning itself as a potential hub for global yuan trading and, to support that, HSBC Bank issued yuan bonds in London in April.

That was the first "dim sum" bond to be issued outside Chinese sovereign territory and sold directly to investors in Europe, as well as Asia.

"China is clearly moving towards its goal as having the yuan as a reserve currency. This has implications for all those that trade with China or those who may want to tap its massive investment surpluses," Mr White said.

While China's development could only be described as awe-inspiring, Mr White warned the country was still a strictly controlled environment where the Government could strongly "incentivise" organisations to undertake desired behaviour.

If the aim was to have an increasing amount of trade - both import and export - settled in yuan, then that was what would ultimately happen, he said.

A recent survey by HSBC found nearly eight out of 10 businesses in mainland China that had not yet started to use the yuan for cross-border transactions intended to do so in the future.

Mr White said there was anecdotal evidence that Chinese partners would consider better terms, up to 7% in some cases, if settlement was in the yuan.

"There is also the potential benefit of lessening hedging volatility over time if the US dollar is taken out of the equation."

There remained challenges that needed to be faced, not least ensuring the potentially onerous documentation requirements were met.

While yuan hedging markets were increasingly deep and efficient, there was still nowhere near the depth the US dollar hedging market provided, he said.

To try to facilitate yuan trade, the Australian banks, along with HSBC, were aggressively expanding their yuan capabilities and were all keen to assist clients in education about dealing in the market.

ANZ Bank announced recently it was investing a further CNY2 billion ($A300 million) in its locally incorporated subsidiary in China, Australia and New Zealand Bank (China) Co Ltd, to support ANZ's continued growth in China.

Chief executive Mike Smith said ANZ was the first Australian bank to be incorporated in China, in 2010.

"Our business in China has grown steadily since we established a presence in 1986, and the additional capital we plan to invest in ANZ China will support further network expansion, growth in customer lending, employee recruitment and product development to better service our customers."

ANZ aimed to become a "super" regional bank in the Asia-Pacific region and China was a strategically important market, he said.

The bank was making good progress towards its goal of earning 25% to 30% of group profit from outside Australia and New Zealand by 2017.

"We have a long-term commitment to China and will continue to be an active investor in supporting the nation's financial services sector," Mr Smith said.

ANZ China had six outlets, in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Guangzhou, and planned to increase its network to 20 outlets in the next five to 10 years.

Mr White said if organisations traded with China, they needed to prepare for the brave new world of yuan settlements.

"This doesn't mean rushing in without doing your homework.

There is a window of opportunity over the next year or so to set up appropriate systems, talk to the experts and start to do some test transactions."

As with any type of risk management, time spent now getting those things set up properly would pay dividends, he said.

"Don't be left behind and then rush to join the herd without proper due diligence."

https://www.bancorptreasury.com/images/uploads/Treasury_Trends_383_May_2012_A4.pdf

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/210706/big-change-chinas-currency

ivars · May 28, 2012 - 6:34am

This is good later synopsis

This is good later synopsis (of Sornette's approach) as well:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1001.0265v2.pdf

Anonymous · May 28, 2012 - 7:32am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

· May 28, 2012 - 8:46am

off your chest, and onto mine, so to speak

I do not think you are a nutjob, au contraire - I have reached a similar place. The time has come for 'speaking truth to power' to actually mean what it is meant to mean.

We can throw off the yoke that has descended, and it takes plain speaking and confrontation of evil when it does rear its ugly head. Gets me in trouble too.

(are you a fan of woodpeckers, which I am, or is there more to your nick-name?)

Fortinbras · May 28, 2012 - 9:00am

@peckerwood... you are not a nutjub...

... it's allll out there and collected. Sadly, now in America we have started passing laws and regulations that will allow people and agencies to act on what is collected and do so "legally." It's beyond sad and I think we are beyond the tipping point on getting back in an orderly fashion.

Maryann · May 28, 2012 - 9:13am

Thank yous and thoughts...

Good morning everyone, thank you so much to those who have bravely served as well as those currently. I echo Dr Jerome's thoughts.

I have spent part of the weekend taking an online course, Constitution 101, though Hillsdale College. I highly recommend it. The course is free and includes lectures and readings (primary source documents). It is very comforting to read the things that influenced America's forefathers to write both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. It is also giving me a sense of peace and something substantial to grasp in the midst of the chaos of late. Even though we are wandering far from their original intent, it is not yet too late to turn around. I pray we do so. Education brings clarity.

TF, thank you for these outstanding podcasts and I hope you are enjoying a wonderful weekend.

ClinkinKY, I will miss your morning toons. Hope you are not gone too long but I understand you needing a break!

Edit: realized I think I should have posted this to other thread to make more sense but now don't know how to move it, sorry!

· May 28, 2012 - 9:26am

Peckerwood- you are not alone

I think you will find many, MANY like-minded souls at this site- folks who deliberately choose to live as free people, who refuse to cower or play the hiding game from the encroaching totalitarianism. People who choose to write freely and say what they want, regardless of whether it is saved on some server in Utah. People who basically do not give a rat's ass if evil, skulking bureaucrats note their IP address in a file somewhere. Folks who, to borrow from a bumper sticker I saw recently, "Ain't Skeered". 

So please, do not think of yourself a 'nutjob' or some other derogatory term- you are a free man, and you choose to live like it. No apologies necessary. 

thurd aye · May 28, 2012 - 9:26am

         Surely the time is

Surely the time is at hand when the talking stops and we do something to stop the destruction of the world via Wall street tactics.The Greek man who shot himself comes to mind ,but there are thousands dead already who will never be listed under atrocities by J.Diemore or L. Blankfiend.

This should have been stopped years ago.Are there seriously no Americans with g.licences , who are terminally ill, with the military acumen to arrange a Wall Street party for these thieves? Rather surely to sacrifice a very few in order to right some wrongs now. It has been said already elsewhere, that just ONE of these suits going down would cause a stop to this nonsense,so why has no-one even tried it.

We talk,we debate,we post,we suffer.It will NOT get better on it's own. Let's get medieval with these suckers.Or,of course,we could just drink beer and post clever ripostes all day hey?

Now I'm on your list I suppose.You'll come and find me no doubt.FUCIAFBIFU.It was worth it !

SaratogaPrepper · May 28, 2012 - 9:40am

Peckerwood

I believe you are understood here more than you could possibly imagine. It would be a large club, except for the fact that people like us don't usually join clubs.

John Galt · May 28, 2012 - 9:44am

@ Turd re: Why Not DOW 36,000?

You scoff at Dow 36,000 being possible but, oddly enough, I think both you and Dent could be correct although it will be more a question of timing as to when each of you is correct about what is coming.

It seems that many people are expecting a pending market collapse. In the event that this happens we'll likely get a repeat of late 2008 where equities, oil, PMs etc crash in price while the $US soars as capital flight moves into the perceived safety of US Treasuries (somewhat like the Black Hole you and Jim Willie talked about). In this environment Dent would be correct in saying that cash and Treasuries would be the best place to be.

The key, then, is what happens next.

IMO the deflationary crash of markets will entice some people to panic and liquidate their PM holdings which, of course, TPTB would be happy to see - especially when they can buy physical at fire sale prices. In addition, many who continue to hold paper i.e. mutual funds, pension funds, would panic over the demise of their savings and future entitlements. To put those fears to rest O'Bomney may then mandate that pension funds hold some or all of their investments in the safety of US Treasuries. After all, in that moment Treasuries and cash would be the only things (seemingly) going up in value while investments in stocks plummet.

With the Matrix now rigged to herd the maximum number of participants into the paper/virtual investment game it would then be time to pull the plug on fiat and Treasuries. After all at this point Treasuries have inflated to the mother of all bubbles, ripe for a pop.

Perhaps some false flag event will occur, maybe in the form of a staged digital assault on the global banking system (blamed on the villain of the day) which wipes out all kinds of database records of savings and investments. Suddenly fiat is spiraling down into oblivion due to some mysterious contagion.

The ensuing panic would see chaotic whipsaws and possible collapse in all kinds of currency markets, prompting entities such as IMF and/or BIS to present a solution in the form of an alternative global currency (maybe fully or partially "gold" backed to create the illusion of soundness and integrity). The masses would be given limited time to turn in their vaporizing paper and digital assets for a new and improved version. Most would readily comply because by this point they're begging to a solution to their financial problems.

Meanwhile, assuming that the majority of people buy into the BS that this crisis was created by a foreign villain the stage could also well be set for broad public support for military action (WW3?) to retaliate.

As this unfolds the price of DOW could then actually skyrocket, since when measured in terms of a suddenly depreciating currency such as the $US why couldn't it soar to 36,000 or more?

So Dent could be right that in the near term the place to be is cash and Treasuries. This "Black Hole" (as described by Turd and Willie) would suck in investment just before the plug gets pulled with some kind of currency reset. As the reset takes place there would probably be a panic rush into hard assets (although the majority of people would likely accept with blind faith whatever the government offers in the form of new and improved fiat). Physical PMs could then do a moon shot in price, assuming one could even find any available for sale. The panic to flee to other assets (with rapidly devaluing paper) could then herald a hyperinflationary rise in asset prices.

Incidentally, in Weimar Germany wasn't there a brief episode of deflation just before hyperinflation set in as well?

Disclaimer: I am by no means a financial expert or chart prognosticator of any kind. I can no more predict what markets will do than guess accurately what I'll be having for supper a week from Thursday. But I am a student of history and have every confidence in the world that governments and global bankers will do to us what they have done to our ancestors again and again and again throughout history.

bam · May 28, 2012 - 10:23am

@ pecker

>"i am at a level spiritually that makes me unkillable."

Great line.

Oh and, since I have a juvenile sense of humor...I always get a chuckle from your handle.

Vernon Wormer · May 28, 2012 - 10:46am

Peckerwood

You are my kind of nut! Keep the faith.

Jdawg DavidDavid · May 28, 2012 - 10:56am

The Fed Will No Longer Be in Charge

DavidDavid

The Feb will not have a choice. Yes, I agree with you that is big time manipulation by the Fed, but it remind me what my old grandpa said "Every dog got it day" The Fed is the bully on the block, but a bigger bully or bullies will overcome the Fed. A new sheriff will be in town (gold). No longer will the dollar be the BULLY of the world. Ray Charles can see this day coming and he is blind and dead. Everyone should download Podcast #22 and listen to it six times to completely comprehend the significant of what will happen. Allow your mind to think. Please wake up before it is too late.

Sam Cooke - A Change Is Gonna Come (THE REAL VERSION; CD QUALITY; LYRICS)
John Galt · May 28, 2012 - 11:04am

@ Peckerwood

As you can see from the replies already posted there are few of us who consider you a nut case, myself included.

I completely agree with your contention that we are now at the time where it's necessary to speak Truth. This is what Turd and others are doing here as well, and it is greatly appreciated.

One of the oldest Native American tribes still around is the Hopi, and they live in the remote mesas of northern Arizona. They have long made accurate prophecies about what is to come, and one part of their message is wholly consistent with what you just said.

It is reposted as follows:

You have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour.
Now you must go back and tell the people that this is The Hour.

Here are the things that must be considered:

Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in right relation?
Where is your water?
Know our garden.
It is time to speak your Truth.
Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.

This could be a good time!

There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid.
They will try to hold on to the shore.
They will feel like they are being torn apart, and they will suffer greatly.

Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off toward the middle of
the river,
keep our eyes open, and our heads above the water.

See who is there with you and celebrate.

At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally, least of all
ourselves!
For the moment we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.

The time of the lonely wolf is over.
Gather yourselves!

Banish the word struggle from your attitude and vocabulary.

All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in celebration.

We are the ones we have been waiting for.

John Galt · May 28, 2012 - 11:16am

@ Xty re: Woodpecker Symbolism

How interesting that Xty asks about a symbolic connection to Woodpecker and Peckerwood speaks of Truth.

By some traditions the Woodpecker is regarded as the drummer of the forest, with shamans riding the drumbeats of the Woodpecker's rhythm into other dimension of space and time. Woodpecker holds the power of rhythm and discrimination, listen to your inner rhythms and heed what they tell you. The woodpecker pecks away at deception and when you hear the woodpecker knocking, the truth will be revealed.

The Green Manalishi · May 28, 2012 - 11:28am

'Blair is a war criminal!' Video of man yelling at Leveson

"JP Morgan paid him off for the Iraq War!"

'Blair is a war criminal!' Video of man yelling at Leveson Inquiry

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaKMIxS93-s

Why is that man apologising to Tony Blair FFS. He should be in the Hague!

Chris P. Bacon · May 28, 2012 - 12:12pm
Pellet · May 28, 2012 - 1:03pm

@ John Galt

Thanks for posting the Hopi prophecy. That was great! I can almost picture a Yodi like Hopi Indian offering his wise comments.

Pellet

Anonymous · May 28, 2012 - 1:45pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Anonymous Maryann · May 28, 2012 - 1:56pm

Removed comment

Removed comment.

I Run Bartertown · May 28, 2012 - 2:24pm

Hopi Legend?

Peckerwood (or simply Wood) is a slur used through the mid 20th century by southern African Americans and upper class whites to describe poor rural whites. It is roughly synonymous with "cracker" and "redneck", more prevalent in the southeast, and "White trash", although the last implies a degree of moral turpitude. Blacks saw blackbirds as a symbol of themselves, and the redheaded woodpecker as a representation of working class whites. They considered them loud and troublesome like the bird, and sometimes with red hair like the woodpecker's head plumes. This word is still widely used by southern blacks to refer to southern whites.

In more recent times, the word has been used by disparaged ethnic people, in particularly out of Bay area California, as an insult to "White" people. The word used to now thought to have originated out of Inglewood, California, where a sizable ethnic community exists, and describes the flashy "hollywood" community, who in majority are white. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peckerwood

and the ADL has you listed as a hate group:

https://www.adl.org/hate_symbols/peckerwood.asp

Maryann · May 28, 2012 - 2:33pm

@ pw....

Why thank you. smiley and i like the way you write as well as what you have to say.

bam I Run Bartertown · May 28, 2012 - 2:35pm

@peckerwood

...I like the name even more now that I have some background on it (provided by IRB above).

Poking fun at it, thereby taking some of the power from it. I appreciate the contradiction between the the handle and the poster.

Then again, I'm a contrarian speculator at heart. So I'm kinda backwards to begin with.

treefrog I Run Bartertown · May 28, 2012 - 2:48pm

another meaning for "peckerwood"

peckerwood is also applied in the rural south to a type of small sawmill, often portable. 

"Peckerwood" Sawmills

Small sawmills sprang up wherever timber cutting was required. These small mills were referred to as "peckerwood" sawmills because they didn't cut wood much faster than a woodpecker. The author remembers a small sawmill on the property of C. B. Fairchild just south of the Angelina County airport. The mill cut hardwood, and there was a large pile of sawdust adjacent the mill.

Sawdust piles were a great attraction to children, and the older ones were a great danger. After several years sawdust piles would start to burn internally from spontaneous combustion. Anyone climbing on the pile could fall through to a fiery death. The author recalls a sawdust pile just north of Angelina County Airport that smoldered for years.

sawdust piles are scattered throughout the woods in this area. i once bought land to build a home on, choosing the site because of an old sawdust pile on the property. the sawdust was wonderful material for garden mulch. i wish i had such a pile on my present farm.

recaptureamerica · May 28, 2012 - 3:17pm

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