TFMR Podcast #21 - Jim Willie Returns


It's been two weeks since we last visited with Jim Willie. In the time since, the JPM derivative fiasco has come into sharper focus and, of course, the global financial condition has continued to deteriorate. In this podcast, Jim has a forum to discuss these issues at length. Though it's about 55 minutes long, at least 50 minutes are of Jim talking in a stream of consciousness that will keep your attention. Please make time over this 3-day weekend to listen to the podcast in its entirety. You won't be disappointed.


May 26, 2012 - 12:52pm

these 2 podcasts are perfect bookends

Jim Willie & John Butler... what a tour de force these interviews are. Stay thirsty for PMs my friends. And by all means send links to all your social contacts, this info is too compelling to ignore.

Eternal Student
May 26, 2012 - 1:14pm

A big thanks, Turd and Jim

That article put forward an interesting thesis; one which seems to have connected the dots, and has interesting testable points.

One thing not mentioned anywhere (in the article or the discussion) was the news this week that China can now bypass Wall Street and go directly to the U.S. Treasury. One has to wonder what sort of deal was cut on that one. Perhaps for China to lay off on Interpol? Who knows, but something went on there that isn't being made public.

Wish you and Jim took bitcoins.

I have to agree with the previous poster that this game can go on much longer than people think. I'd put my money on the "States Rights" issue coming to a head in the 2020's. And don't forget that Homeland Security just put in an order for a huge amount of ammunition. I forget the exact number, but it was something like over one bullet for every person in the U.S.. Yet another dot in this game.

May 26, 2012 - 1:20pm

Vivid Visual

Jim Willie, said (and I'm paraphrasing a bit), "When the Tower collapses, it's going to create a black hole with tremendous negative suction."

Yikes - now that creates a vivid visual of the problems we're facing! Great interview - thanks Turd and Jim (once again).

[And Jim .. please don't eat Turd's dirty shorts, that's way too many nasty visuals for one day.]

The man who stole a leopard ReachWest
May 26, 2012 - 1:46pm

RE: Vivid Visual

It might look like this...

Black Hole Eat Planet.avi

The center implodes, but what happens to what was orbiting around it? Is this the true center?

May 26, 2012 - 2:04pm

This would be a great guy to get on your podcast too Turd

The Fuse is Lit | European Perils | Part 1
May 26, 2012 - 3:13pm

Podcast for Black Berry

I had to refresh my blackberry which wiped out my podcast link to TFMetals. I re-subscribed, but it is not working and won't download any old or new podcasts. Is anyone else having a podcast download issue?

I also can't seem to find a link on the podcast page on how to set things back up. If any Turdites or if any of the Moderators are on today and have any info on how to get my downloads working again I'd much appreciate it!

Listened to both interviews this morning though and they were excellent! Thanks much for all you do Turd!

Feed the Turd and keep stackin' folks! Happy Memorial Day (USA).

Update: I found this address:

plugged it into my blackberry podcast application and it allowed me to re-subscribe again to TFMR podcast channel. However, it still shows no podcasts available and won't download anything.

Any ideas still much appreciated! Thanks

May 26, 2012 - 4:16pm

Thanks for the interview,

Thanks for the interview, please keep them coming from Willie, he is my favorite for sure!!

May 26, 2012 - 5:10pm


Thanks to Turd and Jim for these excellent podcasts. I consider Jim Willie to be one of the best big picture thinkers out there. It's a rare treat to have a full hour uninterrupted with him. I know there are limits to how often he can do this as he makes a living writing for paid subscribers. Hopefully he will continue to pick up enough new subscribers to justify return visits.

May 26, 2012 - 5:59pm

Wow, Wow, Wow

Fully on-board with his USD backwardation. It's only obvious to me that people will at some point prefer real dollars to digital dollars/credit cards in the future. It is one of the simple leverage of the masses. What's the real printed currency total vs. digital checking/savings/CD money supply? Like 1-2% of the total supply, if that?

But the mind blower for me...

If what Jim Willie says is true, that there is a new sheriff in town from the East. And that sheriff would be in full support of constitutional/states rights. This would put the new sheriff in direct opposition to the current US form of fiat/fractional reserve/gov't approved system...I have to ask the serious question to us all.

What side are you going to be on and how long are you going to hold out? The eventual conclusion to my logic tells me we are all instantly terrorists if we support the constitutional/states rights, sound money, etc of the new "foreign" sheriff. How could we not be.

That is the question to ponder this weekend in my book. And that is the only question. PM's, JP Morgan, Euro, US Treasuries and all the rest seems almost trivial and pointless to think about now.

Urban Roman
May 26, 2012 - 7:24pm

Wow ...

Holy crap! Time to pack the bugout bag ... but, to where?

@Fred Hayek, China has historically thought long-term. The one-child policy, for example. Beats the hell out of a chaotic die-off.

China invented aptitude testing. That's a long-term thing, they wanted competent bureaucrats and not little fiefdoms of inbred corruption like the rest of the world usually had.

Mao was an aberration, like a book-burning emperor, which they have also had from time to time.

They are back to long-term again. They have a space program. They are extracting rare earths. They are investing in solar power. They've been stockpiling things like copper. They are encouraging their middle class to own precious metals.

When their export markets go down, they'll have a recession, but the rest of civilization is heading for an extremely chaotic collapse.

May 26, 2012 - 8:34pm


The next generation of undetectable unmanned assassination spy machines is on its way to being operational. Let us all rejoice and share in plenty.

May 26, 2012 - 8:34pm


Your Bug Out Bag isn't always packed?

Great thoughts about China.

Eric Original
May 26, 2012 - 9:42pm

USD backwardation

Isn't that what we essentially have whenever we have negative real interest rates?

A dollar in hand today has more purchasing power than a dollar promised in the future, earning piddly little gov't suppressed interest rates that don't keep up with inflation.

It means the "spot" price of a dollar bill is higher than the "futures" price. Think about it.

Eric Original
May 26, 2012 - 11:14pm


Well done, EricO. This is exactly right! I don't even think the JA has considered this.

May 27, 2012 - 12:50am

Willie's newsletter

Jim Willie's newsletter is so prolific and comprehensive it takes about 4 hours to read through it all.

One thing that seems to come through is his integrity. I always get the feeling he is telling the truth ,as far as he can see, and thats alot farther than the average person .

It takes a little gettin used to his writing style , but after a bit, it sounds almost poetic,with a cadence that eventually becomes appealing . His interviews are ok,but fall far short of the presentation in the monthly newsletter. and the subscription is only about 200 dollars a year, something like that . its a real bargain,and so far the only Macro analysis I have needed in a few years, aside from the free websites like here and JS Mineset, Trader Dan, and the other ones we all go to .

The generosity Willie offers folks when he presents a free public article is more than people realize, because he says much of the substance of his newsletter in the public articles, just presented about a week later. like this interview. What subscribers get is a heads up, a week earlier, plus much more detail and indepth analysis.

I like Willie's sense of honest presentation, but these recent years, all Ive ever read from him has been so negative about the state of global affairs,and economic collapse, etc...that its always a very gloomy doom forecast. I wonder if he was more positive 5 years ago. or if the global picture every improves, will his analysis become more positive. not meant to be a criticism, he tells it like it is, but just be prepared for serious doom and gloom in a prolific presentation.

May 27, 2012 - 1:49am

Tulving update & job alert (repost from other podcast thread)

As ouchtouch mentioned, Mr. Tulving is unusually low on some SKUs:

This is BU gold Eagles:

And, in case it's of interest, there is a new post looking for a qualified applicant for a Software - Business Analyst (Torrance, CA). If you are looking for a job, or are a frustrated employer looking for a seasoned, straight-thinking new hire - take a look at Turdland Jobs Forum for open positions, interview & job search tips -- and feel free to add anything you feel appropriate to the topic.

Eric King Eric Original
May 27, 2012 - 2:00am

USD backwardation

Interesting observation Eric Original, you could apply this same logic to all fiat currencies with negative real rates.

GBP, JPY, EUR and arguably the AUD.

Eric King
May 27, 2012 - 2:19am

Waiting for July 31st

No matter what way I cut it, I keep getting the same dates, late July, early August for the silver resolution.

Turd- Id really appreciate your expert insight into this. Usually in your charts you connect the 4 bottoms around $26 with a horizontal line, but drawing from the '08 low the blue lines cross just after July 31st.

I am expecting a QE announcement on July 31st and then a massive rally in silver and gold. Please tell me where I am wrong in this logic.

tranquillity The man who stole a leopard
May 27, 2012 - 6:57am

Black hole eating a planet

I am certain that that is not how it would look.

How often do you see the planet earth suck in satellites or other items in space on only one small portion of its 3-dimensional body?

I would think that the gravitational pull would be more even over the whole surface rather than sucking in one side first.
If there where any difference of the gravitational pull, as I understand it, it would be around the poles of the black hole given it had a rapid spin which would result in stuff being shot out rather than sucked in at those two points.

what movie is that by the way? Fantastic four silver surfer? New Star Trek movie?

I have looked at it now 15 times XD, and thinking that the black hole suddenly appeared at the surface of that side it makes a bit more sense but still not 100%. you might have seen the one side be sucked in first but it wouldn't explain the rapid expanse of how much is sucked in per time unit. Since at first it is sucking in like 1/10 of a radius of the planet and at the end it says *slurp* and a full diameter span is sucked in. The addition of the first half third mass of the planet would not account for the massive extra gravitational pull needed for that.

but anyway, very scary =)

Urban Roman tranquillity
May 27, 2012 - 7:43am

Black holes

They do not quietly suck in matter. Before the matter falls in, it is torn to atoms, and that process produces a lot of heat and radiation. The matter builds into an accretion disk, orbiting the hole itself. Jets of particles shoot out the poles of this disk at almost the speed of light.

So, no, the black hole video is silly. Real black holes look more like supernovae.

May 27, 2012 - 9:19am

thanks turd

longtime lurker.

thanks for all you do.'

some questions for the crew:

Does anyone think the JP Morgan problem is related to Lindsey Williams "watch the derivatives market" comments (beginning of the end of $)?

When stacking, has anyone considered that Eagles (bullion/commodity) would fall under CFTC regulations and may have restrictions placed on them as opposed to US Silver/Gold coins (Morgan, Peace, Indian Head, Barber etc) which are legal tender?

Does anyone listen to One Radio Network (Wed shows) with Coin guy Andy Gause - he makes the case for numismatics over bullion (granted he sells them, but I am more interested your opinions on the bullion v legal tender coin).

Eternal Student
May 27, 2012 - 10:33am

Silicon Valley starting to slow down

Silicon Valley has been one of the few engines of growth in this Country. Housing price declines have about flattened, and in the hot areas, have increased. That's about to change.

VC funding here just fell by over 15% last quarter; from about $7.1 Billion, to about $5.8, IIRC. VC funding has always been a harbinger here of the future.

It will be a little more complicated, because unemployment in the Construction Industry is about to go to 0, due to the new 49er's stadim being built, and other construction projects. But the change should be noticable YOY by this Fall, if Crazy Bennie doesn't print.

May 27, 2012 - 11:53am

Way over my head

For someone who is much smarter than I am:

Two questions come to my mind when I digest all the information that Jim Willie puts out, and causes me to question his conclusions.

First, if the banks have 238 TRILLION dollars of interest rate swaps, Where are they? Jim says that these swaps are processes where banks borrow funds from the fed at zero interest and purchase treasuries at 2-3%. Well there are only 12 TRILLION dollars worth of treasuries total. If they purchased all the treasuries in the world, What are the other 226 TRILLION dollars worth of swaps?

Second, if the FED is loaning all this (newly printed) money to the banks, should not this be reflected on the fed balance sheet? Or are these 'loans' off balance sheet ?

Thanks, ahead of time, for your responses in helping clear this up for me.



May 27, 2012 - 12:04pm
May 27, 2012 - 12:20pm


If the 10 year bond goes down to 1.50% doesn't this mean that home mortgage rates go down as well?

If so, time to refi again...or conversely, the SHTF because of the derivative bust and the systemic failure Willie talks about wipes out all debt and we start over.

Any thoughts?

Eternal Student obiwan
May 27, 2012 - 12:47pm

Re: mortgages

Mortgages are not directly linked to the 10 year; instead, they are loosely coupled. Influenced by them, certainly. But there's also a supply and demand to them, which affects rates.

You can see the demand side, certainly. Namely, people wanting to buy, or refi.

On the supply side, think of it from the perspective of the investors. How much do you want to put in at the current mortgage rates, versus something else like Treasuries? Or Greek bonds, even (I'm joking here).

I would categorize it more like downward pressure on mortgage rates. Not a given, but certainly influencial.

May 27, 2012 - 1:06pm

Plata Pura mas Fina

These are to trade for future services like gardening, housekeeping, modelo negra, donkey shows, etc... that I wish I can afford if metals ever get out of their tail spin...

El Gordo LeeHo
May 27, 2012 - 1:27pm

Plata Pura

My unconditional favorite. I just have trouble every time they try to cross the Rio Grande on that tipsy little raft with a big load, and oops, there they go down the drain again.

May 27, 2012 - 1:46pm
Silver Danny
May 27, 2012 - 2:09pm

Iran designs alternative system for SWIFT: CBI

Iran designs alternative system for SWIFT: CBI

Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Mahmoud Bahmani says the country has designed and implemented a new system for conducting international transactions.

Bahmani said on Saturday the new system,which has already been activated, would replace Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)


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