TFMR Podcast #15 - Trader Dan Norcini


Yesterday, I had the distinct pleasure of visiting with "Trader" Dan Norcini. Dan is a independent, professional trader. This means he makes his living off of being able to nimbly move into and out of positions, in the end consistently generating enough profits that Mrs. Norcini doesn't make him get a regular job!

Dan has a wealth of experience which he freely shares with all Turdites in this podcast. I strongly encourage you to make the time to listen.

As many of you know, Dan is a featured commentator on websites such as JSMineset and King World News. Dan also maintains a blogspot site where he often posts his own, personal analysis of various markets. Time prohibits him from updating it daily but you should check there daily anyway, just in case. He usually posts new information 2-3 times per week. The site can be found at .


Mar 16, 2012 - 8:27am

FIRST !!!!!!!!!!!!11111111


Mar 16, 2012 - 9:07am


2nd wasn't very coveted.


Mar 16, 2012 - 9:24am



Mar 16, 2012 - 9:28am


Getting there. One day I'll hit that 1st. Can't wait to hear the podcast.

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:46am

Trader Dan....!

I'm not sure if Trader Dan comes on the site at all, but judging from what I've read and heard from the man over the years he's a Turdite through and through.

Looking forward to listening to this as soon as some coffee happens. The podcasts on here are a great component of the site and I think part of what makes it unique.

Thanks for bringing TD on board in this manner and giving us another quality podcast

Mar 16, 2012 - 10:24am

Another Great Podcast

Thanks, Turd and Dan. I enjoyed listening to your conversation.

Dan put it all in perspective when he said Gold is higher than it was at this time, last year and, in turn, each prior year, for the past several.

It's sometimes easy to get lost in the daily price movement machinations, but the trend is certainly moving in the direction most Turdites expect.

Mar 16, 2012 - 10:26am

Great Podcast

Great job TF!

One of the best interviews with Trader Dan I've ever heard. Great insights.

Great way to close off an awful week, with some perspective from someone with some balance.

Mar 16, 2012 - 10:41am

@TF Many Thanks for the outstanding blog, msg to CNBC Pisani

TF - Your blog is rapidly becoming a core asset of the global investment community.

Glad you are staying out of the JPMC Whistleblower story.

Let the NY Times and WAPO and WSJ's of the world handle that headline.

This blog is better off sniffing out the under reported facts that are ignored by reporters on NYSE floors.

I just saw a rant by Bob Pisani about the NYT op-ed against GS.

MSG to Pisani - You lost all credibility this morning as a reporter. You're not supposed to be a paid lark of NYSE. You're supposed to be a reporter first. You've lost that position in my eyes with that rant AGAINST the op-ed published by NYT and AGAINST op-ed expressed in blogs. Your analytical skills appear to be tainted by your daily walk around the NYSE floor. You need a break from the NYSE floor. Go call Anderson Cooper and join him on his next trip to Haiti to talk with Sean Penn. Go call Erin Burnett when she makes her next trip to Dubai. Go do something to round out your life. It's off center when you start defending Goldman Sachs' illicit and illegal behavior.

Mar 16, 2012 - 10:48am



Mar 16, 2012 - 11:18am

Interesting AM

Frustrating price moves, talk of abiotic oil, and a poor fool who thinks the road to good health means giving up on alcohol. Poor fool.

It is good to see a FULBMA going on, but it's just "more of the same" and who knows how long that will go on.

@Stratj - $1400 gold! Wow what a prediction. When?????????? I want that one on the prediction calendar - it's been so dull the last three months. Nothing but Turk being WRONG as usual. So how about you take your Underoos off, put on some big boy boxers and put a date on that $1400 Au?

Love the battle going on today over the JP whistleblower being authentic or not. I don't know, but my $1 bet would be on "authentic". Of course, my $10 bet is on "meaningless" as all this will be until someone realizes that they want something of value for their commodities instead of pretty pieces of paper with dead presidents on them.

And that's where I'm at this AM. 76 possible here in chileland, so I'm planning a long walk while I listen to Shep. Enjoy.

Mar 16, 2012 - 11:50am

Loved it!

A thoroughly enjoyable podcast, Turd. Dan's blog is one I regularly visit & I always enjoy his metals wrap on KWN. For any wannabe traders we got a wealth of common sense and extremely good advice. Bottom line here is Dan is a 'regular guy'.

The man who stole a leopard
Mar 16, 2012 - 11:55am

Good advice

Great podcast Turd, Dan had lots of good advice for new traders.

Learning the hard way...

Video unavailable
Mar 16, 2012 - 12:01pm

@"The man who sto"

that better be an IB demo lol

how can you even go negative? guess hes one of those clowns using margin

Mar 16, 2012 - 2:47pm

excellent post

excellent post turd..always a pleasure to listen to Dan...seems as if he was talking about my trading career!!!!!!!!!Great interview & greater insights.I do make it a pt to visit his website everyday just in case there's an update

Mar 16, 2012 - 3:32pm


I thought it was interesting that Trader Dan said the only way the US could pay its debt was to devalue the dollar. Oddly, that is the last weapon remaining in Berneke's list of weapons he said in his 2001 helicopter speech that he would deploy if he was elected Fed chairman. He has already delivered on the other four (ZIRP, QE, MOPE, PPT). Lindsey Williams said TPTB told him that Berneke would unleash #5 by the end of this month. He said there would be absolutely no warning, but now we only have this weekend and two more before his prediction expires. Monday, 19 Mar, we have the "auction" to begin settlement of CDS triggered when Greece created a "credit event". The effect of that is unknown. However, markets have been tightly controlled this week such that they failed to respond sharply to the Draconian news that a Greece credit event had spawned CDS payments. Could the devaluation be this weekend? Could be. This week has given the banks time to position short on the dollar and be ready if a "credit event" happens in the US Monday morning.

Also, next week on the 23rd is the deadline for the English law bondholders to accept the CAC terms imposed on Greek law bondholders, or else these English law bondholders get no terms at all...except what? Bankruptcy court? Probably. Greece is getting less money now than it anticipated and has higher short term debt payments than it publicly admitted, and it is faced with over 100 billion Euros in debt that it co-signed (Railroad bonds, etc.) that likely have been triggered by this credit event. These Greece guaranteed bonds have penalty clauses and acceleration clauses. If Greece is having trouble making just normal interest payments of a couple of billion on its bonds and paying off 3-4 billion in holdouts on the CACed bonds, how are they ever going to pay 110 billion in guaranteed bonds? Short ans: they are not. They will default in a very disorderly manner. This is next Friday, the 23rd. Suppose a disorderly Greek default happens next Friday as speculated, do you suppose that would be a good reason for Berneke to devalue the dollar over the weekend? The US banks could convert their Euros to dollars to pay off the CDS or they could cash out of positions short the dollar or long the Euro and pay the CDSs at a much lower rate than today. This would also have the effect of instant inflation to the amount of the devaluation, and would make paying back debt cheaper. Of course, it would make our imports (can you spell O-I-L?) instantly more expensive. Increased energy costs in and of themselves are also very inflationary. A devaluation of the dollar could be the trigger for hyperinflation that many we have been expecting. It might lead to instant US bond dumping triggering the printing of yet more dollars and driving up interest rates. It might lead to a land rush or stock rush where foreigners with dollars try to buy any tangible assets here in the USA before their dollars evaporated into nothing. All those dollars flooding home at once would be very inflationary.

Another flash point is the 30th of March. On that date the Muslims are planning a march to Jerusalem that will try to muster 1,000,000 Muslims to enter Israel simultaneously and illegally. This march is being organized (community organizers again? ) and funded by Iran. Who knows what Israel's reaction to such a thing might be or what might happen to the oil markets. This would be a great cover to bring an Iranian army into Syria clandestinely. I think if this is the prelude to the long awaited invasion of Israel that a 40% devaluation of the dollar will be the least of our troubles.


Titus Andronicus
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:24pm

Good interview

Thanks guys.

Mar 16, 2012 - 6:25pm


Thanks for that info laden post. Nice job

I read on ZH that Israel has voted in favor of war with Iran. An event like that would make good cover for some other major development. Maybe the Fed. makes a move while the news cycle is more tightly focused on something else?

Fred Hayek
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:39pm

Very interesting. Thanks, Turd!

I'm not a trader and have no idea about the thought process involved in being one so it was interesting to hear Dan explain things. I check out Trader Dan's Market Views on a pretty regular basis. I had definitely lumped him in with you, Harvey Organ and Jim Sinclair as straight shooters who were generous enough to give jamokes off the street the real story about what's going on. Thanks.

Mar 17, 2012 - 12:43am
Mar 17, 2012 - 12:57am

Command Performance: Great Interview

I'm like 12 minutes in and wow, Turd. This is a really awesome interview.
Dan jumps right in and he is on point; discipline of training yourself to
control your trade/emotion, especially if you're on the wrong side of a trade

being able to let go, etc.

Talks about learning a lot through experience,
making mistakes helps to learn what not to do.
Books can only teach so much, etc..

Cheers! 41

Mar 17, 2012 - 12:57am


Mar 17, 2012 - 4:25am

Really enjoyed the podcast.

Outstanding advice!

Mar 17, 2012 - 8:09am

Norcini leaves me cold

So did this interview which seems to be encouraging complete novices to play high risk markets against professional gamblers and in markets that are rigged from data to regulator ...that's my impression of the 'trading tips' part of this marvellous interview!

I try to listen to Dan and tune into his blog quite often too but he kills me with dullness, sorry!!

He is never very certain about anything and suffers from the delusion that news effects market trends so he's always getting confused by some political/unrelated event effecting the Gold and Dollar price

Our buying patterns in Gold/Silver are little to nothing to do the news on CNBC which is why he's often confused on what moved the market that day. He should ask himself would he buy or sell his position in Gold because Bumma committed suicide, 2 jets rammed into the twin trade towers or America declares war with Iran based on no evidence and no legal case?

Nope, he wouldn't change his Gold position on News.. so why would the market???

Nevertheless he seems a very nice, sound chap, the type you'd like around at a BBQ. How long have you known him Master Turd? Was it before or after you discovered your talent for reading charts and the rise of Turdville?

Are you also buddies, or have a business relationship, with Jim Sinclair, James Turk or those other KWN guys?

Mar 17, 2012 - 9:19am

I like Dan too..

...and said he'd make a great guy at a BBQ in my post

What i didn't like was Dan (and Turd) encouraging complete novices to trade in the shark/snake-pits of professional fleecers

You say he's got an "unbiased opinion" would you know, got any background on that?

His trading blog just looks at the charts in a not-quite-sure bit dull way. Has he skin in the game do you know?

If Dan has skin in the game he's not exactly unbiased is he? But there's no evidence when i read him that he's ever up or down a position, made losses or profits... weird!

So why's he doing it?

Mar 17, 2012 - 9:20am

I like Norcini

He talks a lot of sense, and doesn't go around in a tin foil hat or selling his book. A gold bug you can trust.

Mar 17, 2012 - 9:34am

dan is great

and gives an unbiased opinion on metals.

never sure of anything? who is, short term.


sure is for suckers buying paper insurance.

Mar 17, 2012 - 9:36am

nobody's encouraging anyone

they say over n over trading is not for everyone.

and it isn't.

u interview a commodities trader...what do you think the subject is?..........religon?

Mar 17, 2012 - 9:55am

Well if i was discussing

Well if i was discussing complete novices i'd herd them towards a sensible stacking strategy, not gambling in a snake/shark pit

How about you?

And what's your background info on Dan Norcini being "unbiased" ?

Mar 17, 2012 - 10:01am
Mar 17, 2012 - 10:07am

Nationwide Naval Preparedness Exercise.

The timing of this seems suspicious?

Can someone from Pensacola Florida or proximity confirm this?


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