TFMR Podcast #13 - The Straight Skinny from Gonzalo Lira

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With everything in Europe seemingly coming to a head very soon, I thought it would be wise to ring up Gonzalo Lira, as he has a much better grasp of the situation than I.

In this podcast, I give Gonzalo free rein to go wherever he wants. Part of that was intentional; Turdites will recall that the Skype connection between Anytown, USA and Santiago, Chile is slow and creates a "delay" in the recording of the call. Part of it was intentional, though, as you all get plenty of my BS on a daily basis. I figured that if Gonzo was willing to give us the time, I might as well let him have the floor.

This call begins with a discussion of the mysterious trillions of bearer bonds rounded up today in Switzerland. From there, we discuss Europe and the eventual default of Greece and then conclude with some thoughts on Iran and the implications of the war that seems to be brewing.

If you enjoy this podcast, I would strongly you to consider becoming a subscriber at Gonzalo's website:

https://www.liraspg.com/

Membership has its benefits. Not only do you receive timely analysis but Gonzalo also he hosts instructive webinars for his clients about once per month.

The podcast runs a bit longer than usual at 50 minutes or so but, if you have the time over this 3-day weekend, I encourage you to listen to the entire thing.

TF

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Monedas
Feb 18, 2012 - 8:58pm

You're not alone, Clinky !

Don't let them get you down ! These open forums are irresistable to the "freedom haters" ! I'm flattered they're obsessing over us ! There are many lurkers and posters who agree with you but don't want to encourage the detractors by responding to them ! Have fun with them ! You're worth more than the whole bunch of them ! Monedas 2012 Any more Mike Ramirez cartoons out there ? I love the way that guy draws !

Smiddywesson
Feb 18, 2012 - 8:57pm

Be careful of what you wish for

It's party time here in New Orleans (actually Mississippi, but us toss pots don't care). I had a thought I'd like to share.

The human species has spent the majority of its existence dying between their early 20's and mid 30's. Throughout human history, most people didn't live long enough to see more than one or two boom and bust markets, let alone a complete cycle, to include a systemic collapse.

Yes, the world is melting down, but the good news is you are an old fart and lived to see it.

Today, we view it as an accomplishment that we live into our 80's, and yet we live in fear when the inevitable comes to pass. You can't escape the fact that the longer you live, the more likely it is you will live to see a currency collapse.

Keep stacking, give up on convincing your peers about anything, and focus on the young. Teach them what you know so they can use it. Once the roller coaster car reaches the apex, nothing can prevent the inevitable.

Hammer
Feb 18, 2012 - 8:34pm

Here is an interesting

Here is an interesting take on affairs regarding the Middle East.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16937613

¤
Feb 18, 2012 - 7:58pm

Long Cool Woman in a Black Dress

Long Cool Woman in a Black Dress by The Hollies
¤
Feb 18, 2012 - 7:20pm
WineGuy
Feb 18, 2012 - 6:34pm

Monday

Presidents Day in the USA Monday - Markets Closed

Family Day in Canada Monday - Markets Closed

Sunday night in Asia and later in Europe should be a hoot!

On a more serious note, I just opened a fabulous California Cab - 2006 White Oaks. Best get you some.

Be Prepared
Feb 18, 2012 - 6:30pm
Be Prepared
Feb 18, 2012 - 6:07pm

Greek Cabinet backs extra austerity Measures...

Greek cabinet backs extra austerity measures

(Reuters) - Greece's cabinet on Saturday approved a final set of austerity measures sought by the EU and IMF as a condition for a 130-billion euro ($171 billion) rescue package, raising the chances of a deal next week to avert a chaotic default on its debt.

The approval was largely a formality after Athens last week unveiled details of the extra budget and public sector wage cuts worth 325 million euros to euro zone partners.

Lingering doubts over whether Greece can bring its mountain of debt down to more manageable levels in coming years could still hold up the rescue package. Some officials in the 17-nation currency union warn chances of a deal at a euro zone meeting on Monday are little higher than 50-50.

"The 325 million euros worth of measures were approved unanimously," said one minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, about the cuts, part of a 3.3-billion-euro package of austerity measures that have triggered riots in Athens.

A government official said cabinet had also agreed to launch by March 8 a debt swap for private creditors with the aim of completing it by March 11. The swap is intended to accompany the rescue deal and will mean that creditors take a 70 percent cut in the real value of their holdings.

After months of often acrimonious negotiations, Greek hopes are rising that Monday's meeting in Brussels will endorse the rescue which Athens needs to avoid bankruptcy on March 20 when major debt repayments fall due.

"The Greek people have done everything they can and we are determined to make good on our commitments," Public Order Minister Christos Papoutsis said before the meeting. <Rest of the Article>

¤
Feb 18, 2012 - 5:58pm

Articles on SWIFT / ISDA / BIS

Here's an article on SWIFT at this link and about 1/2 dozen others pertaining to it and the ISDA CAC/CDS issue also.

There's also a working paper from the Bank of International Settlements/BIS on Testing the Limits of Monetary Policy in a Crisis.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/546574#comment-546574

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

Fred Hayek
Feb 18, 2012 - 5:11pm

ilion -- medium and long term, only impossible things

Because gold and silver are really competing currencies they only do poorly (absent manipulation) when the supply somehow increases or the competing currencies show strength.

One can imagine fantastic mining finds or breakthroughs in alchemy that would increase the supply of Au and Ag such that the supply of them increases enough to hugely diminish the price but these aren't realistic scenarios.

One can also imagine fantastic shows of political honor and concern for constituents by american, british, european and japanese politicians such that budgets are balanced and additional fiat currency is not issued in any way to make up for the cost of debts. But one is probably more realistic in postulating a breakthrough in alchemy such that anyone can change lead to gold in their garage with ease.

Oversized debts can only be dealt with through restructuring/default or inflation. Those who hold power would lose some of it if forced to restructure/default. They will invariably choose to inflate. This inexorably weakens a fiat currency as compared to gold and silver.

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
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9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

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