TFMR Podcast #13 - The Straight Skinny from Gonzalo Lira

154

With everything in Europe seemingly coming to a head very soon, I thought it would be wise to ring up Gonzalo Lira, as he has a much better grasp of the situation than I.

In this podcast, I give Gonzalo free rein to go wherever he wants. Part of that was intentional; Turdites will recall that the Skype connection between Anytown, USA and Santiago, Chile is slow and creates a "delay" in the recording of the call. Part of it was intentional, though, as you all get plenty of my BS on a daily basis. I figured that if Gonzo was willing to give us the time, I might as well let him have the floor.

This call begins with a discussion of the mysterious trillions of bearer bonds rounded up today in Switzerland. From there, we discuss Europe and the eventual default of Greece and then conclude with some thoughts on Iran and the implications of the war that seems to be brewing.

If you enjoy this podcast, I would strongly you to consider becoming a subscriber at Gonzalo's website:

https://www.liraspg.com/

Membership has its benefits. Not only do you receive timely analysis but Gonzalo also he hosts instructive webinars for his clients about once per month.

The podcast runs a bit longer than usual at 50 minutes or so but, if you have the time over this 3-day weekend, I encourage you to listen to the entire thing.

TF

  154 Comments

  Refresh
ClinkinKY
Feb 19, 2012 - 12:04pm
Be Prepared
Feb 19, 2012 - 11:30am
Be Prepared
Feb 19, 2012 - 11:26am

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output, Export: Industry Report

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, appears to have cut both its oil production and export in December, according to the latest update by theJoint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), an official source of oil production, consumption and export data.

AP

The OPEC heavyweight saw production decline by 237,000 barrels per day (bpd) from three-decade highs of 10.047 million bpd in November, the JODI data showed on Sunday.

The draw-down was sharper for the actual amount exported, declining by 440,000 bpd, or 5.6 percent, to come in at 7.364 million bpd, the data also showed. The level would still be similar to exports after a steep ramp-up last June.

In its monthly report on February 10, the IEA put Saudi Arabia’s production number for December slightly lower at 9.55 million bpd, a disparity of 260,000 bpd versus the JODI data.

Iran appeared not to have filed data in time for the latest release, providing no additional clues about how many export barrels were already lost in December, as some reports have suggested. <Rest of the Article>

ClinkinKY
Feb 19, 2012 - 10:46am
ClinkinKY
Feb 19, 2012 - 10:41am
Orange
Feb 19, 2012 - 10:23am

David Morgan

Good for newbies to silver

Myths in the Silver Market: David Morgan at the California Resource Investment Conference
Hammer
Feb 19, 2012 - 9:38am

Here's this, too

It's going to be an interesting week.

https://www.cnbc.com/id/46445889

treefrog
Feb 19, 2012 - 9:10am

don't miss this special offer!!!

2 (two) hope ‘n change watches for just $14!!

hopenchangecartoons.blogspot.com/

featuring the “O” logo with a shot of the north end of a southbound horse.

Orange
Feb 19, 2012 - 8:59am

Short Squeeze

Everybody seems to be expecting the price of silver to drop as a result of the open interest increasing.

Here is a good article dated today that adds to the theory.

https://galeforcesales.blogspot.com/2012/02/blatant-suppression-of-silve...

I am looking for a contrary point of view that might indicate we are about to enter a massive short squeeze over the next 10 days. Isn't that's what happened last year this time?

Be Prepared
Feb 19, 2012 - 8:29am

The Cooked Books of Unemployment

The BLS, along with every other agency under OBummer or under any president for that matter, has become an instrument of showing only what needs to be shown to provide the right answers at the right time. The February 3rd Report comes out just at the perfect time to show that the US Economy still has life in it and that January 2012 created 243,000 jobs with the unemployment rate dropping to 8.3%. The President came out all smiles declaring his policies are, in fact, great jewels that are only now being appreciated as they are producing the results he always intended.

There are other metrics to see what they don't want you to see. The Gallup Poll shows unemployment is increasing because businesses are now laying off their seasonal hires.

Worse, 10% of the employees in mid-February were part timers in search of full-time jobs, though down a tad from January's of 10.1%, the all-time worst level in Gallup's history! Underemployment—a combination of the unemployed and part-timers who are looking for a full-time job—jumped to 19% from the mid-January reading of 18.1%. While Gallup’s unemployment reading has improved steadily over the course of 2011, the underemployment reading has simply gotten worse.

Gallup's Job Creation Index (see Chart below) is the net of Gallup's Job Market measure, subtracting the percentage of workers who say their employer is letting people go and reducing the size of its workforce from the percentage who say their employer is hiring new workers and expanding the size of its workforce.

The Job Creation Index was 16 on Jan 23, 2012 and dropped to 13 on February 6, 2012. As this number gets lower, it translates to more businesses looking to layoff then hire. The trend towards the downside is not confirmed, but it could be the first indication of a roll over in job creation.

The index below, based on a survey of employers’ hiring plans, has been tightly correlated with the NFP numbers. And on Thursday the Philly employment index tanked from 11.6 to 1.1 ... This suggests a February jobs gain of just 50,000, a huge drop from January’s 243,000.

The BLS Unemployment number is cooked and baked to show just what the Administration wants you to see..... they are always adjusting the formula. At least for now, there are other more independent methods to get a sense of just how cooked the number is by looking at these and other sources. Personally, I think unemployment and, certainly, underemployment will only be increasing.... I'm just wondering how or what OBummer will do to make himself look like he's the Master of the U.S. Economy. Stay tuned for more funny numbers.....

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Pete, 26 min 54 sec ago
by Green Lantern, 5 hours 46 min ago
by 11IMIX, 6 hours 47 min ago