TFMR Podcast #13 - The Straight Skinny from Gonzalo Lira


With everything in Europe seemingly coming to a head very soon, I thought it would be wise to ring up Gonzalo Lira, as he has a much better grasp of the situation than I.

In this podcast, I give Gonzalo free rein to go wherever he wants. Part of that was intentional; Turdites will recall that the Skype connection between Anytown, USA and Santiago, Chile is slow and creates a "delay" in the recording of the call. Part of it was intentional, though, as you all get plenty of my BS on a daily basis. I figured that if Gonzo was willing to give us the time, I might as well let him have the floor.

This call begins with a discussion of the mysterious trillions of bearer bonds rounded up today in Switzerland. From there, we discuss Europe and the eventual default of Greece and then conclude with some thoughts on Iran and the implications of the war that seems to be brewing.

If you enjoy this podcast, I would strongly you to consider becoming a subscriber at Gonzalo's website:

Membership has its benefits. Not only do you receive timely analysis but Gonzalo also he hosts instructive webinars for his clients about once per month.

The podcast runs a bit longer than usual at 50 minutes or so but, if you have the time over this 3-day weekend, I encourage you to listen to the entire thing.



Feb 18, 2012 - 6:18am


Where is the american bashing post? What people know who they are? I am perplexed, scrolled all the way through the thread, again, and alas there is really nothing there leveled at americans. At all.

The US government is voted in by its people and therefore is a democratic representation of the American people. If you suggest that the US government has gone 'rogue' and doesnt represent the people than that is the fault of the people for not holding them accountable. By virtue of the fact that the US govt has harmed so many in the greater american populations name should create a serious sense of guilt and shame not phoney pride. Or is this an improper discernment?

Feb 18, 2012 - 6:09am

@ Senseosensei - interview thoughts

I am with you on the bonds thing. This one seems (to me) to be a fake. I don't believe the US has ever issued $1 billion dollar bearer bonds. But why would you bother forging something that never existed? The story from 2009 is still pretty interesting too, because if they were fakes (as announced by the US Secret Service), why did they let the guys go? We are obviously not getting all the information on either of these stories, but they both reinforce my decision to hold physical.

I agree with Gonzalo that Greece will never be declared a credit event and the CDS will never pay off. GREAT point by Gonzalo that the decision has been made to save the big PARTICIPANTS in the system, even if it destroys the whole system. I personally thing the Fed will pump liquidity to the ECB, and they will pump the money to the EU banks, who will approve the second bailout for Greece (and the 3rd, 4th, 5th, ....).

Iran- In my opinion, Gonzalo is correct that war with Iran will have long term consequences. The US and Israel are probably thinking that they can hit Iran's nuclear facilities, sink a few ships, permanently submerge a few subs, hit a few missile sites, and then the war will be over (remember we thought we would be out of Libya in "hours or days"?) If anyone does strike Iran, Iran will be tempted to interfere with oil shipments through the straights for a long time. Think it is a military mismatch and an easy win? How we doing with shutting down the pirates off the coast of Somalia? 20 men willing to die with 10 speedboats could shut down the straights for 3 years. Go long oil if you are trader, buy the dip when the shooting starts if you are Louie.

clueless one
Feb 18, 2012 - 6:00am

@ Clinkin

well said.

sometimes, people fail to look at the results that the entire system has brought upon mankind, no matter the nation. sort of like how someone might view a guy with long hair and a torn pair of jeans as some unworthy individual...

it's spoken of in the Scriptures...basically "give a guy a break"..."don't judge" as you know not the road they've been down, nor how badly they've been screwed by the system, which is possibly the cause for the viewpoint in the first place.

he's only "unworthy" because the person bringing claim has lived under the spell and of the premise that anyone that doesn't fit his/her vision of "worthy" must not be as such.

that, makes me tired.

so much hype, so much crap out much hate, so much me me me... it's really, truly amazing how the propaganda fades away when you get to know someone and see they're so similar in aspirations and kindness.

I'm not saying we're perfect...not at all. but I agree with you 110% about the people who know who they are.

I'd give the shirt off my back for someone...even a stranger...with no want nor need for something in return.

call me stupid, whatever, but that's how I'd like to be treated. though I may not receive the same in return, it doesn't discourage me from puttin' the good foot forward anyway. this stuff that's coming upon us now will prove just how well we can get along and help each other, every nation. it'll be rough...but you watch, the heartfelt goodness of those that really want to make a difference will spread like wildfire to others when those others realize they cannot go it alone.

well said, brother. well said.

Feb 18, 2012 - 5:37am

@ punchbowl

Actually, your post(s) never entered my mind. The people I was referring to know who they are. Additionally, the nations/peoples you've listed above have been harmed by the US GOVERNMENT, not the American PEOPLE. The American people are some of the most generous people in the world. Some folks here seem to have a hard time discerning between the two. If you can't understand what I'm saying then there's no point in discussing it further.

Feb 18, 2012 - 5:20am

@ zilverreiger

And you never miss a chance to slam America and/or it's citizens. Your record speaks for itself.

Feb 18, 2012 - 5:13am

whatever clink

Clink said:

but try to remember that the CITIZENS of this country have done more good than harm in the short 236 years we've been around.

Do you think the:



El Salvadoreans,










North Koreans,

and pretty much the rest of the planet agrees with that statement. Honestly I would add the Israeli people and a whack of your American brethren to that short list.

Not even sure where this america bashing post that has you all riled up is located but maybe you are preemptively attacking my post which you knew was coming. That would be in contemporary American military fashion -- nice play. Clink how is the air up there where you live. The self-righteous bombast is phenomenal. Give us a few examples please of your assertion -- that American has done a lot more good than harm. Is electricity one. Penicillin, maybe. You made it to the moon. Building schools in Iraq. Freeing the women in Kuwait. Testing the bomb in Fiji and Japan. What. Love to hear all the good you and your tribe has done for the world.

Now I`m just a canadian schmuck who missed the indoctrination classes of how flipping awesome his country is.

note: my question mark key aint working.

Some of the thoughts on Lira are interesting and I am looking forward to listening to the podcast.

Feb 18, 2012 - 4:42am


You are a spoiled and deluded nationalist who thinks the world should just lie down on its back quietly while it's getting raped by your nation state? Now that's what making me tired.

Feb 18, 2012 - 4:10am

I'm Sure I'll Be Called A "Flag Wavin' Zombie", but...

I'm getting pretty damned tired of the haters who seem to relish the idea of coming to an American (based) PM site to bash not only the US but, too often, it's citizens as well. You think we don't know that we have problems with our government? You think that we don't know that things have to change with how things are done?

Some of the vitriol I see unleashed, at times, makes me think that Barack Obama has multiple accounts here.

Bash away at the present administration if you wish, and other events in our checkered history that deserve to be criticized, but try to remember that the CITIZENS of this country have done more good than harm in the short 236 years we've been around.

For cryin' out loud, have some manners. You're a guest.

Feb 18, 2012 - 3:41am

Comments on Argentina, RSA,

Comments on Argentina, RSA, etc...

I've never been to Argentina but I've heard good things from people who have. It's high on my list of places to visit if I get a chance soon. What place isn't corrupt? Does the corruption in Argentina really affect the tourists who visit and the expats who decide to live there for a while? I don't know, but I would assume not. My South African friends who have visited Argentina loved the place and can't wait to go back. Maybe we are just also so corrupt and backwards that we don't notice all the bad things about Argentineans.

Yes, of course every place has problems but be careful listening to embittered emigrants who have left a particular country. Sometimes people who emigrate from a country think the grass is always greener on the other side and are very disappointed and need to bash their former home to justify their decision.

I'm not even defending any country here, I'm just saying be careful about making simple-minded generalizations that because a particular country has corruption or has a lot of crime in particular regions that that will be your only experience of the country.

Feb 18, 2012 - 3:21am

My thoughts on this interview

First of all, thank you Turd for the efforts to bring us these kinds of interviews. Much appreciated.

Here are some comments:

1. I think the story of the bonds was too easily being dismissed as "some ordinary crooks faking bonds to earn a dime". My alarm bells are ringing because this is the second time that this scenario has come to play in a span of a few years. Add to it the odd year of the bonds (1934), the $ amounts (trillions? way too much for ordinary crooks), the place (close to Switzerland, the land of secret vaults full of all the wealth of the scum of the earth), the FED cases, Asians involved (really, in Italy ?). Way too many odd things combined. I would have loved to hear more elaboration on who would have lost, and who would have benefited from these bonds, had they made it to the destination.

2. I agree with Gonzalo that the Greek CDS will never be triggered. Pity that the interview didn't fully touch on what the consequences were. As Jim Sinclair has stated, the bill will have to be paid by someone else. Probably brokers, pension funds, cities and villages, so you and me. That, in itself, could trigger a whole lot of events that eventually could be larger than 6 big banks going broke over having to pay CDS insurance. Maybe we can discuss these consequences amongst the Turdites.

Also, Greece has a history of violence, civil wars, military rulers (last one only a few decades ago). I wouldn't be one bit surprised if rather sooner than later, either the ordinary citizens or military have had enough, and throw the IMF and ECB out. What happens then will be chaos.

3. I see the war with Iran as inevitable but frankly, disagree with Gonzalo that Israel triggers it and drags the US into it "unwillingly". I think that the forces that want this war, have nothing to do with either country, at least don't care for either country, but intend to get their own agenda completed, an agenda that is not in the interest of either Israel, the US, Iran, or any other country for that matter.

For the traders amongst us, it would be a great exercise to elaborate on trade "opportunities", altho the thought of making money when this occurs haunts me a bit.

4. Most interviews, this one not excluded, touch upon topics to a degree that is informative for those new to the subject. Personally i would like to hear the guests thoughts about why rather than who or what. For instance, why do the banks do what they do. Not to make money. Money is a means to an end, a means to power. Power over what, power to whom. That line of reasoning would, in my mind, connect more topics that occur as separated events in the media and give people a helicopter view.

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