TFMR Podcast #12 - John Williams of ShadowStats.com

64

Boy oh boy, do I ever have a timely treat for you today. Back on Thursday, I was able to visit with John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics. In light of today's heavily-manipulated BLSBS report, I'd say this podcast is rather timely.

As most of you know, my college degree is in Econ so getting a chance to visit with John was a real pleasure. I mention at the end of the podcast that I could have gone on speaking with him for another hour or two but, in respect of his time, I had to cut us off after just 30 minutes. Please take the time to listen to the entire thirty minutes, though. The information that John provides, particularly near the end of the podcast as he discusses the CPI and the coming "hyperinlationary depression", is extremely important.

I'd also like to pass along a hearty and sincere endorsement of John's work and his website. He provides plenty of information free of charge but if you want to go in-depth, you should seriously consider purchasing a subscription. The site can be found here: https://www.shadowstats.com/

I'm confident you'll enjoy this podcast and I hope to have a follow-up conversation with John sometime soon. TF

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DayStarzilverreiger
Feb 10, 2012 - 1:30pm

Transition of Wealth

Rome will end up in charge of the wealth of the world for about 20 years. Then the East acquires the wealth from Rome.

DayStar

DayStarzilverreiger
Feb 10, 2012 - 1:30pm

Transition of Wealth

Rome will end up in charge of the wealth of the world for about 20 years. Then the East acquires the wealth from Rome.

DayStar

cdellis
Feb 5, 2012 - 8:59pm

sorry cannot agree on the hyperinflation scenario

You need purchasing power to be able to increase the price of various things, and in the United States, Europe, Canada, etc. there just is not the purchasing power expansion to allow prices to inflate. If the price of bread all of a sudden goes to $10 per loaf how many loaves will you buy? If the general inflation rate goes to 20% are you and all of the people down the street going to get a 20% raise to compensate, and allow you to buy $10 bread? Just having more money in the system (M1,M2. or M3) does not mean that the price of bread is going to rise proportionally to the increase in money. If all of that increased money is just sitting in treasuries earning .01% then the price of bread will not rise because nobody can afford to buy it if it goes up.

just my take

Be Prepared
Feb 5, 2012 - 5:15pm

US M3 Money Supply VS Gold Chart 1970-2011

Big L & The Good Doctor

Here's a great chart that shows the M3 money supply and then shows the M3/Gold ratio. It's what you would expect... as the money supply grows, the value of the current collapses and the value of gold increases relative to that currency....

TheGoodDoctorBig L
Feb 5, 2012 - 4:39pm

@BigL What it will look like

@BigL

What it will look like is a reverse or negative exponential "hockey stick". So, take an exponential hockey stick and turn in upside down. Or kind of like a "J" and flip it 180 degrees north and south and flatten the curve some.

I'm trying to find a picture of a graph. The idea is that it can happen quick. But the end will look like a reverse exponential graph. I can't find a reverse one, but this is what I am talking about. Flip it 180 degrees north and south.

Be Prepared
Feb 5, 2012 - 1:21pm

Chocked full of people in Every Bite....

Hey Smiddy, I always stop and read everything you post.... your sharp mind is a great resource here in Turdville.....

Smiddywessonthecoloredsky
Feb 5, 2012 - 1:10pm

@thecoloredsky

" Are people falling out of the workforce vaporized?"

No, that would be wasteful, they are chocked full of protein for those tasty green crackers.

thecoloredsky
Feb 5, 2012 - 11:57am

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

SmiddywessonBig L
Feb 5, 2012 - 9:48am

@BigL

Yes, I know you get the PM part, but it just sounds so wonderful that I can't help myself.

I would find it interesting if there was a graphical overlay of money supply to the value of the currencies that went parabolic. That might provide a clue to timing.

If you find such an animal, I'd be interested in seeing it too. However, there's a few factors that might reduce the usefullness of the information as a road map to the future. For example, this isn't an isolated case. It's a global meltdown, at least in the West. Money supply and debt in other countries can touch off the crisis before we reach the tipping point in one particular country. Second, a lot of money is crossing borders to plug the holes, especially US dollars, so that has to change the timeline of when the collapse into full blown hyperinflation occurs. Third, the US is a reserve currency unlike Weimar and Zimbabwe, and that gives it more elbow room.

Big L
Feb 5, 2012 - 9:18am

Thx guys!

Hey thanks for the info! I appreciate the time you took to form those replies.

I guess I was thinking more about the time value of money or how to calculate future value. Which I would use help determine future course of action.

Meaning, if you have twice the amount of money in supply then the $'s are worth 50% of former value ( I know it's not that simple, just an example of a formula ). Also being able to calculate a formula might help to 'time' events. There might be a mathematical tipping point for inflation going parabolic, like within a 6 month time window. Something like that.... a guide to predict future events.

I bet the government has worked this out and has a fairly good idea of timing.

I know it's not that easy, there is M1, M2 and M3 etc. etc. I'm guessing there isn't any kind of reasonable formula, because it would certainly already have been published somewhere and wound up on Main Street.

The graphs are an excellent visual on how quickly this can all happen. I would find it interesting if there was a graphical overlay of money supply to the value of the currencies that went parabolic. That might provide a clue to timing.

One more thing, I get the PM's. Trust me, I get it.

Big L

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