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TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 5


The Comex metals were slammed hard today after a better-than-expected ADP jobs report prompted a spike in the POSX. However, tomorrow brings the far more important BLSBS and, after today's ADP number, the bar to "beat expectations" may have been reset too high.

So what leads us to think that the BLSBS may "disappoint", regardless of the expectations? Well, don't forget about the major BS component, the birth-death adjustment. As you can see below, the adjustment to the Dec21 jobs report was negative so the adjustment to tomorrow's Dec22 report should be expected to be a drag, too...

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/29

5/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
5/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 1:00 ET Goon Barkin
5/31 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/31 10:00 ET JOLTS
5/31 12:30 ET Goon Harker
6/1 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor
6/1 9:45 ET S&P Manu PMI
6/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
6/2 8:30 ET BLSBS

Forum Discussion

by AGXIIK, 2 hours 42 min ago
by Fish, Jun 1, 2023 - 1:09pm
by argentus maximus, May 30, 2023 - 1:26pm
by argentus maximus, May 30, 2023 - 12:39pm
by argentus maximus, May 26, 2023 - 5:29am
by Mendelson, May 23, 2023 - 7:30pm