The Comex metals were slammed hard today after a better-than-expected ADP jobs report prompted a spike in the POSX. However, tomorrow brings the far more important BLSBS and, after today's ADP number, the bar to "beat expectations" may have been reset too high.
So what leads us to think that the BLSBS may "disappoint", regardless of the expectations? Well, don't forget about the major BS component, the birth-death adjustment. As you can see below, the adjustment to the Dec21 jobs report was negative so the adjustment to tomorrow's Dec22 report should be expected to be a drag, too...
