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TFMR Podcast - Thursday, January 5


The Comex metals were slammed hard today after a better-than-expected ADP jobs report prompted a spike in the POSX. However, tomorrow brings the far more important BLSBS and, after today's ADP number, the bar to "beat expectations" may have been reset too high.

So what leads us to think that the BLSBS may "disappoint", regardless of the expectations? Well, don't forget about the major BS component, the birth-death adjustment. As you can see below, the adjustment to the Dec21 jobs report was negative so the adjustment to tomorrow's Dec22 report should be expected to be a drag, too...

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/30

1/31 8:30 ET Employment Costs
1/31 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Prices
1/31 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
2/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
2/1 9:45 ET S&P Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET JOLTS
2/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
2/1 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
2/2 8:15 ET ECB rate decision
2/2 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
2/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/3 9:45 ET S&P Services PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI

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